Let's say sometime in 1943, the Soviets negotiate surrender to Germany. To keep this from turning ASB, I don't want to give details as to how the Germans could pull that off, given its one hell of a long shot. However, I am just curious as to how the western allies would respond after losing the Soviets.
How do the US and UK respond?
- Thread starter Ultima770
- Start date
At that point I think the US and UK keep fighting. Depending when in 1943 the USSR surrenders the allies are anywhere from winning in North Africa to invading Italy. The rest of the war will be harder for the allies since the Germans could transfer forces west. If the Germans are able to capture and use Soviet industry that would put a lot of production out of the reach of allied bombers.
They'll carry on and see what happens. Realistically, the Luftwaffe probably still gets ground down in 1944 and air superiority is established over France.
But then it gets trickier... OTL Overlord is probably out - simply too many German troops scattered about France, even if most are in the wrong place. Do they roll the dice in August 1944 or wait a full year? If the latter, then they may well wait until the nukes start coming through before attempting a landing. The political drivers for clearing the V-weapon sites might force a 1944 landing after all.
But then it gets trickier... OTL Overlord is probably out - simply too many German troops scattered about France, even if most are in the wrong place. Do they roll the dice in August 1944 or wait a full year? If the latter, then they may well wait until the nukes start coming through before attempting a landing. The political drivers for clearing the V-weapon sites might force a 1944 landing after all.
marathag
Banned
In 1943 there isn't much to know, other than the US was making pure Uranium Metal economically(Tons of it!), and had a working reactor.
They never accomplished either.
They Soviets cracked the theoretical side of MP, but not the mundane Engineering side.
Thats what took them to 1949 to make a single bomb, not the assembly line that the US did.
It took the Soviets till 1954 to have more than a dozen bombs, a place the USA would have been at by January 1946
if the allies can't invade France, I'd think there would be a lot more 'periphery' battles... Sicily and other islands in the Med, Norway, etc... basically, anyplace they don't have to face the main force of the enemy. A lot more air power/bombers hitting targets in the Reich. There's nothing to really keep the allies from getting complete control of the sea and all air space in reach of allied air forces in Britain. Maybe a lot more St. Nazaire type raids?
Deleted member 1487
Are we assuming the Wallies are at war with Germany or not? If not its doable to get the USSR to collapse in 1943 with the Axis at peace with the West and just fighting the USSR. In that case they would probably not do much other than strengthen their defenses and do a Cold War strategy and probably cooperate on defense. Effectively it would be an almost 1984 scenario where at the end of the book one of the three major powers collapses.
I don't know how possible peace would be in 1943. Both FDR and Churchill were pretty anti-Nazi and if they had the success in North Africa they did OTL they would be confident they could defeat Germany. On the other side Hitler would be super confident since he just defeated the USSR, so I don't see him being too reasonable in making peace terms with the US/UK.
I don't see either side willing to cave and make concessions to get a peace deal done.
Even if the Nazis get some intel on the Manhattan project there is no way they could build nukes before the US. By late 1945/early 1946 the US should have been able to produce enough bombs and B-29s to carry out a convincing attack on both Germany and Japan.
Even with forces from the eastern front I'm not exactly sure how Germany is supposed to defend against nearly simultaneous invasions in Italy, Côte d'Azur, and Normandy from the US and commonwealth realms along with Free French.
If they need extra muscle/help, maybe they try to flip Mussolini but that'd likely end up as a liability anyway.
If they need extra muscle/help, maybe they try to flip Mussolini but that'd likely end up as a liability anyway.
Deleted member 1487
Simultaneous? The Wallies didn't have transport enough to pull all that off.
The near-simultaneous invasion, which occurred OTL. Italy Sept '43, Overlord June '44, Dragoon August '44
Deleted member 1487
That's not simultaneous or even anywhere near. With no war in the East they have enough to fight in all those areas at once.
Semantics. Regardless, the Germans would eventually be overwhelmed by the sheer numbers the WAllies could commit in addition to established air superiority. If not, nuclear fire might have convinced them.
The WAllies job just got a lot harder. But I'm sure they will view it like the Russian collapse in WW1. FDR will be bitter about all the lost L-L supplies, but they will shoulder the burden. It'll probably come to nukes over Berlin, in the end.
Japan might linger on a bit longer with more Allied attention in Europe.
Japan might linger on a bit longer with more Allied attention in Europe.
TFSmith121
Banned
You missed a couple:
You missed a couple:
FORAGER (June, 1944) - 535 combatant ships and auxiliaries, carrying an expeditionary force of 127,600 troops, equating to four and half reinforced infantry divisions (2nd, 3rd, 4th Marine divisions; 27th Infantry Division; 1st Marine Brigade (2 rcts+), simultaneously afloat and combat loaded.
It's also worth noting the objective (Mariana Islands) lay 1000 miles of steaming from the nearest advanced base (Eniwetok, which was basically an anchorage) and 3,500 miles from the nearest bastion of any significance, Oahu.
The shipping above does not include that used for the nearly simulatanous Wakde-Sarmi and Biak operations, which included enough assault and escort forces to put the reiforced 41st Infantry Division ashore in May, split between the two beachheads.
Throw in what was supporting operations in the Med and elsewhere in May-June, 1944, and the Allies could have put at least a dozen reinforced assault divisions ashore simultaneously, and reinforced and sustained them at the same pace as OVERLORD or even faster.
There's a reason the US (alone) was planning to have 12 divisions afloat simultaneously for OLYMPIC in 1945; they had the shipping...
Best,
You missed a couple:
FORAGER (June, 1944) - 535 combatant ships and auxiliaries, carrying an expeditionary force of 127,600 troops, equating to four and half reinforced infantry divisions (2nd, 3rd, 4th Marine divisions; 27th Infantry Division; 1st Marine Brigade (2 rcts+), simultaneously afloat and combat loaded.
It's also worth noting the objective (Mariana Islands) lay 1000 miles of steaming from the nearest advanced base (Eniwetok, which was basically an anchorage) and 3,500 miles from the nearest bastion of any significance, Oahu.
The shipping above does not include that used for the nearly simulatanous Wakde-Sarmi and Biak operations, which included enough assault and escort forces to put the reiforced 41st Infantry Division ashore in May, split between the two beachheads.
Throw in what was supporting operations in the Med and elsewhere in May-June, 1944, and the Allies could have put at least a dozen reinforced assault divisions ashore simultaneously, and reinforced and sustained them at the same pace as OVERLORD or even faster.
There's a reason the US (alone) was planning to have 12 divisions afloat simultaneously for OLYMPIC in 1945; they had the shipping...
Best,
Nukes, that is if the United States B-29s would even be able to reach Germany without trouble. Or if a German fighter can reach a B-29.
It could follow a Fatherland sort of timeline. Japan will eventually surrender. One big issue is if there are resistance movements in occupied Russia that the RHSA and SS have issues with, resulting in more troops in the east.
I think there would be an operation planned in 1946 following Japan's collapse. Probably just as big as Operation Olympic once troops from Asia assemble either in the UK or africa. After the allies start their surrounding of Germany, as in taking Norway, maybe cause issues in the Aegean sea.
I wonder if Germany would then have mass produced jet fighters to plan for another battle of Britain, or push the allies out of Italy.
It could follow a Fatherland sort of timeline. Japan will eventually surrender. One big issue is if there are resistance movements in occupied Russia that the RHSA and SS have issues with, resulting in more troops in the east.
I think there would be an operation planned in 1946 following Japan's collapse. Probably just as big as Operation Olympic once troops from Asia assemble either in the UK or africa. After the allies start their surrounding of Germany, as in taking Norway, maybe cause issues in the Aegean sea.
I wonder if Germany would then have mass produced jet fighters to plan for another battle of Britain, or push the allies out of Italy.
I don't think the WAllies getting air superiority is a given. First, is far cheaper to build a fighter than a four engine bomber. Second, while it takes time, Germany can switch from producing armaments for fighting in land to armaments to contesting the air (and stuff like 88mm antitank/flak guns don't even need to be retooled, they just get redeployed). Third, peace with the USSR likely means they get access to a lot of metals they lacked OTL, so they get more reliable jet engines. Four, while it also takes time, they can move factories further east, meaning the Allied bombers need to expend more time over Nazi airspace.
All in all, I think the WAllies will keep the fight in the periphery: North Africa, the Italian islands, Norway, maybe the Aegean and Greece while bidding their time for Project Manhattan to bear fruits. And then they begin to drop nuclear bombs on Germany at night. After 6-7 nuclear bombardments, some sort of peace is achieved. The main issue will be that the Allies will (understandably) want to occupy Germany and, without Wallies armies in mainland Europe, the Nazis won't easily budge, despite weekly nuclear attacks.
All in all, I think the WAllies will keep the fight in the periphery: North Africa, the Italian islands, Norway, maybe the Aegean and Greece while bidding their time for Project Manhattan to bear fruits. And then they begin to drop nuclear bombs on Germany at night. After 6-7 nuclear bombardments, some sort of peace is achieved. The main issue will be that the Allies will (understandably) want to occupy Germany and, without Wallies armies in mainland Europe, the Nazis won't easily budge, despite weekly nuclear attacks.