WI: Reversed Portuguese and Dutch East Indies

[Phalamus]

Just a little idea that had been going around through my head.

During the Dutch-Portuguese War of 1598-1663, the Dutch managed to replace the Portuguese in roughly half of the former State of India. What if they had taken roughly the other half instead?

I think there is actually a surprisingly expedient way of achieving this. Let's say the Dutch succeed in capturing the Island of Mozambique in 1607 or 1608. This would increase both their motivation and means to threaten Portuguese India. Let's say they capture Goa within 1-2 decades. This would lead them to use exactly the Portuguese route and replace the Portuguese exactly where they used to trade primarily.

Under this situation, they would be a lot less pressed to capture Malacca, and also have less resources to commit to multiple attacks on that city due to having to defend their new possessions in the western Indian ocean. Let's say that they give up after a couple of failed attempts and Malacca stays Portuguese.

Portugal adapts to using the Brouwer route and shifts the center of power of its Asian empire to the Indonesian archipelago.

Some points for discussion:

1. How would a Dutch Goa interact with the Marathas? Would they have the same wars against them as the Portuguese.
2. Assuming that the Dutch conquests in Portuguese India includes the Seven Islands of Bombay, this butterflies their transfer to England as part of the Dowry of Catherine of Braganza. How does that affect the development of British India?
3. After trying and failing to recover Mozambique, would Portugal try to colonize the Cape as a replacement, or would they be content with just going straight from Angola to Malacca?
4. Seeing as the islamization of the Indonesian archipelago was by no means complete at this time and it continued throughout the Dutch period IOTL, how would Portuguese top-down Catholicism affect the religious landscape of the region? Would we see more catholic-majority areas? If yes, which?
5. Using the Brouwer route, the Portuguese would likely visit Australia at some point. Would they colonize it? In addition to providing sandalwood that could be sold in China, Australia would also be in an ideal position ITTL to be the much-desired "breadbasket of Portuguese Asia," providing food to Malacca and other possessions.
6. Would the Dutch still show up in Formosa or Japan? If no, it's likely that the Tokugawa would not have expelled the Portuguese, so they would continue to trade in Nagasaki under the same conditions as the Dutch IOTL. Formosa would likely end up Spanish for a while, then either Koxinga takes it as OTL or it eventually becomes an extension of the Philippines.

Thoughts?

 

[kasumigenx]

It is likely here that Portugal remains in union with Spain.

 

[Phalamus]

It is likely here that Portugal remains in union with Spain.

Why?

 

[kasumigenx]

Why?

Because Spain is able to defend Portugal's colonies.

 

[Phalamus]

Because Spain is able to defend Portugal's colonies.

Not really. The losses to the Dutch would be about the same in number as OTL, but only different colonies. In fact, Portugal would only be more embittered at Spain, since it lost its most important colonies

 

[Taunay]

Not really. The losses to the Dutch would be about the same in number as OTL, but only different colonies. In fact, Portugal would only be more embittered at Spain, since it lost its most important colonies

So an earlier Restoration War?

 

[AltoRegnant]

The Dutch possessions would be more vulnerable than otl; England didn't have a major presence in Indonesia until very late, but the main Indian Ocean network is a very different story. I suspect that a lot of these will be forcibly taken during the anglo-dutch wars. Maybe not Mozambique or goa, but certainly more than the otl Dutch empire

 

[Phalamus]

So an earlier Restoration War?

I would say it probably happens at roughly the same time. You still need something like the Union of Arms to act as catalyst.

I suspect that a lot of these will be forcibly taken during the anglo-dutch wars.

Certainly seems like a possibility. So this may also lead to a faster development of British India, huh?

 

[AsukaEMP]

Question, do the Dutch still keep the places in Indonesia they didn't take from the Portuguese but established themselves, e.g. Batavia? Because that makes a huge difference. The actual physical presence of the Portuguese in and around the Indonesian archipelago in the early 17th c. wasn't actually that large, they were restrained to only a few outposts and projected their power through their fleet while places like java, Sumatra, etc. were left wide open. Even the Banda Islands weren't actually owned by the Portuguese. So merely switching what places the Dutch did or didn't take from Portugal doesn't actually change much in the region.

If anything this risks the Dutch getting better outposts, Malacca for example had been declining ever since it fell into Portuguese hands. Failing to take it doesn't mean the Dutch suddenly no longer want an outpost on the strait, and if it isn't Malacca it may well be Penang, Pangkor, or Singapore which are all way more viable (for starters, they all have actual harbours). Similarly in India even if the Dutch don't take e.g. Hughli there's no way they're not going to establish an alternative trade post in Bengal, just likely everyone else did (French Chendernagar, English Calcutta, and Danish Serampore). And while they won't get Ceylon they'll instead be the dominant European power along the Konkan coast.

This also doesn't stop the weakening of the Portuguese empire. Portugal's problem was that it was reliant on a monopoly on Asian goods, and now there were several other powers entering that market. Retaining Malacca does nothing to rectify that.​

I suspect that a lot of these will be forcibly taken during the anglo-dutch wars.

Certainly seems like a possibility. So this may also lead to a faster development of British India, huh?

The EIC wasn't nearly strong enough yet to actually challenge the VOC in the mid-late 17th century. Furthermore most outposts in India at this point were little more than trading houses in Indian-controlled cities, not actual fortifications made for war. The Dutch and Portuguese were the only ones who controlled entire cities with extensive fortifications (e.g. Goa, Colombo, Malacca, or Batavia). On top of that the states themselves sent little to no reinforcements to the region to support company activities in this era. And even when an Indian trade post was captured they were almost always handed back at the end of the war. The Dutch campaign against Portugal was pretty much the only targeted land grab by one European power in Asia against another until the mid-18th century.

Also England effectively lost 2 out of the 3 wars they fought against the Dutch in the 17th century...​

 

[Phalamus]

Question, do the Dutch still keep the places in Indonesia they didn't take from the Portuguese but established themselves, e.g. Batavia? Because that makes a huge difference. The actual physical presence of the Portuguese in and around the Indonesian archipelago in the early 17th c. wasn't actually that large, they were restrained to only a few outposts and projected their power through their fleet while places like java, Sumatra, etc. were left wide open. Even the Banda Islands weren't actually owned by the Portuguese. So merely switching what places the Dutch did or didn't take from Portugal doesn't actually change much in the region.

The idea is that after establishing themselves in India and Mozambique through the conquest of Portuguese outposts, the Dutch would be both less interested in gaining influence in the Indonesian archipelago and have less resources to do so due to having to defend the former Portuguese outposts in the western Indian ocean. They would also use the Portuguese route to India, which makes it less expedient to project power onto Java and Sumatra.

Of course that in theory there would always be many potential outposts that any country could establish anywhere, but by the mid 17th century the Dutch Empire was definitely overextended, much like the Portuguese.

I'm not necessarily envisioning the Dutch staying fully out of Indonesia, just a rough swap of spheres of influence.

 

[Viriato]

If Mozambique Island were to fall to the VOC around 1607, Goa and many of the Portuguese factories along the Konkan Coast were likely to be attacked by the VOC as well. Portuguese ships would likely be forced to use outward route sailing to Mossel Bay, a place which had been called Aguada de São Brás by Portuguese sailors, meaning the "watering place of Saint Blaise". When viewed by the Portuguese, South Africa would have been viewed as an inferior trading post because unlike Mozambique Island, it offers no trading connections along the Swahili Coast. Mombasa, Malindi and the Portuguese factories in the Persian Gulf are also likely in danger.

From present-day South Africa, Portuguese ships would have to sail around southern tip of Madagascar towards the Mascarenes and it would be likely that a settlement might be established in present-day Mauritius as well. From there, if Goa were to fall the Portuguese likely retrench to the Malabar Coast, with Cochin as the hub of Portuguese India.

Batavia wasn't founded until 1619, so if Mozambique and Goa were captured, the VOC might focus more on India, at least initially. The Dutch had begun trading with the Banten Sultanate already, so Western Java is still likely to comer under Dutch influence. In 1609 there was a truce signed between the Dutch and Spanish and this might give the Portuguese an opportunity to regroup. So the focus of the Overseas Council is on the Malabar, Bengal, Ceylon, Malacca and Macau. At the time there was an attempt to expand Portuguese influence in Celebes and perhaps some fortified settlement is established there.

If the Truce is still broken (likely) the VOC will still attack the Portuguese presence along the Malabar Coast and Ceylon, and with Goa in their hands they are likely to pick off each settlement one by one. A few might remain with São Tomé de Meliapore in present-day Chennai having remained in Portuguese hands until 1749 and perhaps that still remains Portuguese hands as does a factory in the Bengal region, or even Syriam (present-day Thanlyin) in Burma. These would have been considered of lesser importance and might escape the onslaught of the VOC. Malaca might therefore become the hub of the remaining Portuguese Empire in the East dramatically transforming the character of the trading empire.

With the Portuguese suzerainty reduced to Malaca, Macau, Meliapore and a few peripheral factories in the Sundas and the Bengal, the focus of the Estado da India is now almost entirely on intra-Asian trade. Shipping opium from the Bengal to Macau and silver and copper from Japan and the Philippines to Bengal and the Coromandel Coast. Also, Bassein which was the most important shipbuilding dock for the Portuguese Empire in the East until it fell to the Marathas in 1740, likely needs a replacement. After 1740, Damão assumed that role and continued to build warships until 1843. This was due to the abundance of rot-free wood in that area. If Goa falls to the VOC, it is likely that the "Northern Province" of Portuguese India is gone as well. This leads me to believe that trade with Burma and Siam might assume greater importance for the Portuguese.