WI: Portugal funds Christopher Columbus?

[Taunay]

In 1487, Christopher Columbus presented his proposal of sailing the ocean blue by going west and reaching the Indies that way.
IOTL, we know Portugal knew that this proposal was wrong, and promptly rejected it.
Some historians believe that the King of Portugal at that time, João II of Portugal either knew or strongly suspected that there was a landmass in the direction Columbus wanted to go in, so he rejected Columbus's offer knowing that it was unlikely for Portugal to reach the Indies that way.
But a POD that I present is having Duarte Pacheco Pereira - who many historians strongly suspect reached the Americas and Brazil sometime in the 1480s - die in a shipwreck sometime in the 1470s, which both difficults the Portuguese understanding over what's in the west AND drains the coffers of Portugal further, leading the Kingdom to accept Columbus's proposal as a desperate attempt to regain prestige and fortune.
As @Mildtryth pointed out, Pereira's expedition actually happened in 1498, not the 1480s as I assumed. An alternate POD is having 1: Bartolomeu Dias's expedition taking place sooner (1486) and 2. it being a major failure (with a shipwreck in 1487), just in time for the news to arrive in Portugal and convince the kings that sailing around Africa would be useless.
What would be the impacts of a Portuguese-led Columbus expedition? Who would colonize which parts of the American continent? Would the Treaty of Alcáçovas (which basically gave OTL US + Canada to Spain and left the entirety of Latin America to Portugal) be respected by Castile? (Of course, the other European powers would want a share of the pie IF Portugal firstly discovers regions that are as lucrative as the Caribbean was to Spain)

 

[Mildtryth]

But a POD that I present is having Duarte Pacheco Pereira - who many historians strongly suspect reached the Americas and Brazil sometime in the 1480s - die in a shipwreck sometime in the 1470s, which both difficults the Portuguese understanding over what's in the west AND drains the coffers of Portugal further, leading the Kingdom to accept Columbus's proposal as a desperate attempt to regain prestige and fortune.

Are you really sure about that POD? As far as i remember, Duarte Pacheco's expedition was (if it did happen) in 1498, years after Columbus' voyage.

Your best bet would be Bartolomeu Dias meeting the same fate as he did in 1500 - dying on the attempt to round the Cape of Good Hope, which might cause João II to seriously consider Colombo's proposal.

 

[Taunay]

Are you really sure about that POD? As far as i remember, Duarte Pacheco's expedition was (if it did happen) in 1498, years after Columbus' voyage.

Your best bet would be Bartolomeu Dias meeting the same fate as he did in 1500 - dying on the attempt to round the Cape of Good Hope, which might cause João II to seriously consider Colombo's proposal.

Very good point, I'll edit the post

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

In 1487, Christopher Columbus presented his proposal of sailing the ocean blue by going west and reaching the Indies that way.
IOTL, we know Portugal knew that this proposal was wrong, and promptly rejected it.
Some historians believe that the King of Portugal at that time, João II of Portugal either knew or strongly suspected that there was a landmass in the direction Columbus wanted to go in, so he rejected Columbus's offer knowing that it was unlikely for Portugal to reach the Indies that way.
But a POD that I present is having Duarte Pacheco Pereira - who many historians strongly suspect reached the Americas and Brazil sometime in the 1480s - die in a shipwreck sometime in the 1470s, which both difficults the Portuguese understanding over what's in the west AND drains the coffers of Portugal further, leading the Kingdom to accept Columbus's proposal as a desperate attempt to regain prestige and fortune.
As @Mildtryth pointed out, Pereira's expedition actually happened in 1498, not the 1480s as I assumed. An alternate POD is having 1: Bartolomeu Dias's expedition taking place sooner (1486) and 2. it being a major failure (with a shipwreck in 1487), just in time for the news to arrive in Portugal and convince the kings that sailing around Africa would be useless.
What would be the impacts of a Portuguese-led Columbus expedition? Who would colonize which parts of the American continent? Would the Treaty of Alcáçovas (which basically gave OTL US + Canada to Spain and left the entirety of Latin America to Portugal) be respected by Castile? (Of course, the other European powers would want a share of the pie IF Portugal firstly discovers regions that are as lucrative as the Caribbean was to Spain)

(I'm going for Diaz's expedition beginning after OTL)
Portugal would probably take the Caribbean islands since that's not too difficult to do but they wouldn't try to colonize the Americas (even if a crazy person did he probably wouldn't have the plot armor Cortez did), they would focus mostly on India but I think they would still send some expeditions in America to trade with the natives and spread Christianity. This would give the natives immunity to the diseases after one or two generations.
The Habsburg Empire in Europe would be severely weakened compared to OTL which mean more successful wars for Francois I against Charles V.
As Portugal wouldn't suddenly become extremely rich, the other European states wouldn't see as much interests in America (a little bit yes because of the trade with the Aztecs which would probably be profitable & plantations), they would focus more on the lucrative spice trade and try to overthrow the Portuguese there, though the Dutch might still try to take over the Aztec trade
The Treaty Alcáçovas was signed because it gave the Mediterranean to Spain and Africa & India to Portugal, the Spanish will be busy fighting with the French and don't have the resources to start colonizing America

 

[Mildtryth]

(I'm going for Diaz's expedition beginning after OTL)
Portugal would probably take the Caribbean islands since that's not too difficult to do but they wouldn't try to colonize the Americas (even if a crazy person did he probably wouldn't have the plot armor Cortez did), they would focus mostly on India but I think they would still send some expeditions in America to trade with the natives and spread Christianity. This would give the natives immunity to the diseases after one or two generations.
The Habsburg Empire in Europe would be severely weakened compared to OTL which mean more successful wars for Francois I against Charles V.
As Portugal wouldn't suddenly become extremely rich, the other European states wouldn't see as much interests in America (a little bit yes because of the trade with the Aztecs which would probably be profitable & plantations), they would focus more on the lucrative spice trade and try to overthrow the Portuguese there, though the Dutch might still try to take over the Aztec trade
The Treaty Alcáçovas was signed because it gave the Mediterranean to Spain and Africa & India to Portugal, the Spanish will be busy fighting with the French and don't have the resources to start colonizing America

Of course, given the POD is in 1487, it's not exactly guaranteed the Habsburgs will come to power in Spain. for all we know, you might end up with a Portugal-led Iberian Union..

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Of course, given the POD is in 1487, it's not exactly guaranteed the Habsburgs will come to power in Spain. for all we know, you might end up with a Portugal-led Iberian Union..

The Treaty of Alcáçovas shows you that the Portuguese already tried and failed. The discovery of the Americas changed relatively little in how Spain was perceived, so I think Habsburg Spain still happens

 

[Mildtryth]

The Treaty of Alcáçovas shows you that the Portuguese already tried and failed. The discovery of the Americas changed relatively little in how Spain was perceived, so I think Habsburg Spain still happens

What I'm talking about the fact that while the match would still happen, it was not a given that Joana or her descendants would inherit, since this only happened because her older brother and elder sister predeceased her mother. And let's not forget that her elder sister was also married to João II's son before he died in a riding accident, and after that, was married to Manuel I, although their only child died before he was two years old, all of which could have turned out differently.

 

[Viriato]

My guess is that once land is reached, there will be further exploration of the Antilles. Sailings from Lisbon towards the Canaries and Antilles would have become more commonplace due to the ocean currents, with contact with the Greater Antilles, namely Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and Cuba, occurring within a short number of years of the first voyage. These islands would likely have been colonised and turned into sugar-producing islands shortly thereafter, more than likely becoming the principal source of sugar for Portuguese traders, supplanting Madeira and the Azores and butterflying away the large-scale sugar production in northeastern Brazil.

When comparing the sailing times in the age of sail from Lisbon to Recife, when compared to those from Lisbon to Hispaniola, they are almost identical. Though the islands of the Lesser Antilles, particularly Antigua, Barbados, and Guadeloupe, are all a shorter sailing distance to Lisbon than Puerto Rico and nearly two weeks less than western Cuba, It might be that these islands were among the first granted to donatary captains as they might be seen as easier to conquer, another major difference from the Spanish colonisation. The discovery of gold in Hispaniola would likely make it an early target of Portuguese colonisation efforts.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

What I'm talking about the fact that while the match would still happen, it was not a given that Joana or her descendants would inherit, since this only happened because her older brother and elder sister predeceased her mother. And let's not forget that her elder sister was also married to João II's son before he died in a riding accident, and after that, was married to Manuel I, although their only child died before he was two years old, all of which could have turned out differently

Maybe

 

[AsukaEMP]

Regarding the POD, the theory that the king refused him because he had suspicions of there being another landmass in the way don't really make much sense. After all why wouldn't think king want to confirm/disprove the existence of that landmass and, if it turns out to be real, know if there is anything of value to be found there that he could call dibs on? It would be a risky operation, but one with a potential return on investment.

The traditional narrative is much more sound. Columbus' calculations were wrong, everybody thought there were just open oceans, and Portugal was already monopolizing the southern route. Therefore it would just be a waste of money no matter how little or how much is invested in it. Also this is rarely mentioned but Columbus himself also had pretty damn high demands before he would actually carry out the expedition, wanting hereditary titles, the right to send out more expeditions, a share of the revenues of the spice trade, etc. He wasn't just some curious merchant.

In Spain Columbus was denied for years because everybody was saying it was impossible to reach Asia... Until the treasurer of Aragon figured that they could just give him a small, cheap fleet. If he failed little was lost, if he somehow succeeded there would be massive returns and the Portuguese monopoly would be broken. As for Columbus' demands, they didn't care nearly as much as it wouldn't infringe on what they already had. Columbus could take a cut from the spice trade if he so pleased, because it still meant Castile would secure a pivotal position in said trade.

So for a POD you could make it so that the Portuguese king actually does have strong suspicions of there being another landmass to the west before Columbus goes to Castile. If that were the case it wouldn't be unreasonable to set up a small expedition like Castile did. And because the king thinks there's something in the way the issue of Columbus' demands would also be mitigated, as he wouldn't actually make it to Asia and therefore wouldn't be able to divert the spice trade and take a share.
Dias suffering a shipwreck wouldn't stop the Portuguese from trying to sail around Africa, because a shipwreck doesn't mean it's impossible. Plenty of ships got wrecked during exploration voyages. Dias' ship getting blown off course by a storm and seeing a second landmass before turning back home without any evidence? Now that would pique the king's interest.​

 

[Phalamus]

Columbus is a tough sell for Portugal imo. Castile funded him because only because they needed some way to get around Alcaçovas.

If you want a Portuguese discovery of the New World, you either need an explorer who mostly pays for the expedition himself (e.g. Ferdinand van Olmen who almost did it IOTL but was apparently lost at sea) or a ship bound to the western azores that gets thrown off course (there's a theory that Diogo de Teive may have sighted North America in his 1462 expedition)

 

[M79]

Suspicion of a Portuguese discovery or confirmation of much much older discoveries by any number of explorers are possible. Andrea Bianco's map from 1447 given the description of how to reach the 'Ixola Atlantica' (spelling?) are very interesting. Especially given his involvement in the Fra Munro map soon after naming the Cape of Good Hope (where did the name Cape Diab come from?) there are interesting questions.

Someone in ancient times seems to have known about the meeting of Atlantic and Indian waters at Cape Agulhas and described it as such in the Periplus of the Erythean Sea if you pass the Prasum Promontorum (Big rock/Promontory coated in plant life 100-150 miles or more south of Rhapta). Add the Herotodus quote involving Necho II with Phoenicians circumnavigating Africa and where the sun could never shine and it gets *really* interesting.


Meeting of the waters (forst visoble picture is from Reddit.com):

meeting indian atlantic ocean africa - Google Search

www.google.com

 

[raharris1973]

Suspicion of a Portuguese discovery or confirmation of much much older discoveries by any number of explorers are possible. Andrea Bianco's map from 1447 given the description of how to reach the 'Ixola Atlantica' (spelling?) are very interesting. Especially given his involvement in the Fra Munro map soon after naming the Cape of Good Hope (where did the name Cape Diab come from?) there are interesting questions.

Someone in ancient times seems to have known about the meeting of Atlantic and Indian waters at Cape Agulhas and described it as such in the Periplus of the Erythean Sea if you pass the Prasum Promontorum (Big rock/Promontory coated in plant life 100-150 miles or more south of Rhapta). Add the Herotodus quote involving Necho II with Phoenicians circumnavigating Africa and where the sun could never shine and it gets *really* interesting.


Meeting of the waters (forst visoble picture is from Reddit.com):

meeting indian atlantic ocean africa - Google Search

www.google.com

Going back to ancient times like that seems to be pushing it to "we'll never know" or "sure, if you really want to believe it" territory.

 

[raharris1973]

Portugal would probably take the Caribbean islands since that's not too difficult to do but they wouldn't try to colonize the Americas (even if a crazy person did he probably wouldn't have the plot armor Cortez did)

I am going to push back on this a little.

Aztec imperial survival and a trading relationship, on a somewhat equal basis, is an equally plausible outcome to Cortes amazingly successful rapid conquest. But I do not think the outcomes are a binary choice between those extremes, or that the extreme results are the most likely. Disease, gunpowder weapons, maritime superiority, and horses, are going to give the initial European discoverer of the Aztecs important initial advantages in diplomacy and terms of trade in a majority of Mesoamerican contact scenarios. Failure of the discoverer to get an immediate, “easy” conquest may reduce the fabulosity and quantity of wealth extracted from Mexico, but the trade should be very profitable, with Aztec and neighboring peoples paying generously in gold and silver for iron tools and weapons, horses, and other European goods. If Portugal is the initial discoverer, or some other power, and fails to conquer quickly a la Cortes, it may still have a pretty effective maritime lockdown on the Caribbean for decades that effectively excludes European competitors and monopolizes, and thus maximizes profit.

More likely than decade-upon-decade, generation-upon-generation, Aztec imperial survival in the case of Portuguese first contact would be an initial trading relationship, which after a few years would lead to the spread of endemic European diseases which would weaken Aztec central power and encourage revolts and thus weaken Aztec bargaining power versus Portugal.

Over a few decades, this should allow piecemeal Portuguese conquest of the Aztec domain and other parts of Mexico. This should eventually include the Central Valley of Mexico. Like in OTL, the thickest jungle areas of the Maya area would be much more resistant to conquest. But I don’t know where this belief that the Portuguese can’t/won’t conquer comes from. Did they not conquer numerous islands in the East Indies like the Malukus, and Malacca, and coastal points in India near large, well-armed states, and Sri Lanka? And Hormuz for a time? These were not militarily uncompetitive areas. Portugal can do conquests if there are riches to be had and there are enemies who are "conquerable."

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Aztec imperial survival and a trading relationship, on a somewhat equal basis, is an equally plausible outcome to Cortes amazingly successful rapid conquest. But I do not think the outcomes are a binary choice between those extremes, or that the extreme results are the most likely. Disease, gunpowder weapons, maritime superiority, and horses, are going to give the initial European discoverer of the Aztecs important initial advantages in diplomacy and terms of trade in a majority of Mesoamerican contact scenarios. Failure of the discoverer to get an immediate, “easy” conquest may reduce the fabulosity and quantity of wealth extracted from Mexico, but the trade should be very profitable, with Aztec and neighboring peoples paying generously in gold and silver for iron tools and weapons, horses, and other European goods. If Portugal is the initial discoverer, or some other power, and fails to conquer quickly a la Cortes, it may still have a pretty effective maritime lockdown on the Caribbean for decades that effectively excludes European competitors and monopolizes, and thus maximizes profit.

The Aztecs may not be willing to trade at first but when the other option is your vassals getting better weapons than you, your options are limited, plus its Moctezuma we're talking about here.
Conquest a la Cortez is almost impossible by another nation as you need a base in the Caribbean to send soldiers to the Aztecs, making them ship across the Atlsntic is dangerous at best and you have to worry about the Portuguese once you arrive in the area.
As for the trade, it would be profitable but spice trade will probably still be more profitable.

More likely than decade-upon-decade, generation-upon-generation, Aztec imperial survival in the case of Portuguese first contact would be an initial trading relationship, which after a few years would lead to the spread of endemic European diseases which would weaken Aztec central power and encourage revolts and thus weaken Aztec bargaining power versus Portugal.

Diseases would spread very fast, maybe not at the first contact but with the trade that would inevitably establish diseases.

Over a few decades, this should allow piecemeal Portuguese conquest of the Aztec domain and other parts of Mexico. This should eventually include the Central Valley of Mexico. Like in OTL, the thickest jungle areas of the Maya area would be much more resistant to conquest. But I don’t know where this belief that the Portuguese can’t/won’t conquer comes from. Did they not conquer numerous islands in the East Indies like the Malukus, and Malacca, and coastal points in India near large, well-armed states, and Sri Lanka? And Hormuz for a time? These were not militarily uncompetitive areas. Portugal can do conquests if there are riches to be had and there are enemies who are "conquerable."

Having a Cortez 2.0 is unlikely plus the Portuguese conquered cities near the coast using their naval supremacy to do this, they weren't specialized in conquering inland especially not a big empire like the Aztecs. The Portuguese would probably not conquer the Aztecs, as sending a few hundred men to invade the Aztecs when they have thousands of men is likely to be unsuccessful and would take away your precious trade with them. They would probably have a few trading posts and let the Aztecs do most of the job.

 

[Coluber]

Having a Cortez 2.0 is unlikely plus the Portuguese conquered cities near the coast using their naval supremacy to do this, they weren't specialized in conquering inland especially not a big empire like the Aztecs. The Portuguese would probably not conquer the Aztecs, as sending a few hundred men to invade the Aztecs when they have thousands of men is likely to be unsuccessful and would take away your precious trade with them. They would probably have a few trading posts and let the Aztecs do most of the job.

My bet is that the Portuguese would sponsor the Tlaxcallans and help them overthrow the Aztecs. Therefore the Portuguese would not have to trade with Mexico, but with "Trascala". Basically, a system similar to the one seen in the Kongo kingdom.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

My bet is that the Portuguese would sponsor the Tlaxcallans and help them overthrow the Aztecs. Therefore the Portuguese would not have to trade with Mexico, but with "Trascala". Basically, a system similar to the one seen in the Kongo kingdom.

I don't think the Portuguese would do this, while it could bring benefits most of the Portuguese resources are used to control the spice trade (Ottoman-Portuguese war), doing such a thing would be risky and a local governor probably wouldn't try to do this.

 

[Aluma]

I don't think the Portuguese would do this, while it could bring benefits most of the Portuguese resources are used to control the spice trade (Ottoman-Portuguese war), doing such a thing would be risky and a local governor probably wouldn't try to do this.

Ngl Im imagining some AH user in an alt timeline saying exactly that to explain why am Spanish Mexico is highly implausible

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Ngl Im imagining some AH user in an alt timeline saying exactly that to explain why am Spanish Mexico is highly implausible

I don't think a Cortez 2.0 is plausible, Portugal's interests are first in the spice trade then the Americas (how will they be called ITTL?)

 

[Aluma]

I don't think a Cortez 2.0 is plausible

Agreed
But if they do pull a Columbus I do think the suggested option(a vassal native ally) would be in the cards

Portugal's interests are first in the spice trade then the Americas

Definitely, yeah

how will they be called ITTL?

No clue