WI : military frenh reaction to terrorists bombing.

fhaessig

Today is the 10th anniversary of the St-Michel Metro explosion, the first ( and worst ) of a string of terrorist bombing in Paris in 1995. Let's explore a bit what would have happened in the french had reacted by military lashing out blindly.

So, let's suppose that the attacks are much worse that OTL. Either the bombs are more powerfull and kill 10 times as many people; the bombs are actually chemical ones, as was feared as first or the highjackers actually manages to carry their plan and crash their plane ( I think it was a 737 ) on Paris. For whatever of these reasons, Chirac goes berserk and orders a french invasion of Algeria ( GIA had claimed responsibility ).

Then, a bit less than a year after placing an algerian-born ex-DGSE agent, who openly allows torture against Islamists, as temporary head of the new Algerian government, the french invade Oman, stating the link of its government to the terrorist attacks ( but never providing any proof ) and promising to set a better government.

How does the world react to this? Is there anyone supporting the french by that point, even in words?

PS : yes, I know it's night on implausible, at least from the second paragraph on. But, with a little suspension of disbelief, I'd like everyone to speculate on the reaction of the world.
 

zoomar

Is the phrase "lashing out blindly" a reference to some certain North American republic by chance?

Anyway, since your own description seems to imply an Islamic/Algerian souce for the attacks, I would not view the hypothetical French response "lashing out blindly". Rather it appears to to be the reasonable reaction to an attack on metroplitan France. France would have the full support of NATO, the EU, and USA, at least in MY world.
 

fhaessig

In this TL, as in OTL, the bombing are organised and claimed by the GIA ( Groupement Islamiste Algerien - I think the translation is obvious - ). The connection to Oman is much more murky and unsopported.
 

fhaessig

Wendell said:
The U.S. has bases in Oman...
Click to expand...


Oops...

OK Retcon time. It was misreported on News at first.

The french actually invaded one of the two Yemen ( the one with the worst international reputation ). Or maybe Sudan. It doesn't really matter for the purpose. The point is that, after a ( somewhat ) explainable target, they invade another country without a prouvable reason, even if they can sprout out a lot of reasons ex post facto.
 

Hierophant

I honestly don't see the US getting in their way. As long as they arent targeting US clients i don't see why there would be a fuss.

You see Iraq and France have had very close times for decades. The French have bailed them out of several messes, given them the money and expertise to keep their heads above the water.
 

Fellatio Nelson

Interesting to see whether there would have been the will in France for some action, given that in 1995 the French military was geared towards a conventional war against the USSR and reliant upon conscripts who could not serve outside of France (and the c.5 million arab-types, who might prove more than a handful).

I think considerable leeway would be granted to consent to a French takeover of Algeria if there was definitive proof that the Algerian Govt. had been behind the attack or allowed it, otherwise there would not. (The Americans can do such things because they are the superpower at present.)

There is also the logistics. The French Navy is organised along similar lines to the RN - they have a considerable emphasis on amphibious craft and have retained a global presence (if only nominally) - and in 1995 still had a working a/c carrier; and their air force could easily reach targets in Algeria from bases in France and Africa.

So, with this they should be able to undertake sizeable operations with their Fusilier Marins and the Foreign Legion. However, would they have sufficient manpower to police Algeria in the short term, let alone go elsewhere? This would require a change in French law to force conscripts overseas and recall reservists for foreign wars: would this be acceptable? (Look at the state the American military is in over Iraq. Recruiters scraping the bottom of the barrel to boost numbers of troops and reservists spending ever longer in Iraq.)
 

Melvin Loh

Forget about the French goin into Oman- the US and Britain would both have a vested interest in maintaining this modernist sultanate in the Gulf.

BTW, i think the plan to crash the hijacked airbus into the Eiffel Tower was earlier, in Dec 1994, which of course was foiled by GIGN CT commandos storming the plane and taking out the hijackers.
 

George Carty

Banned
fhaessig said:
In this TL, as in OTL, the bombing are organised and claimed by the GIA ( Groupement Islamiste Algerien - I think the translation is obvious - ). The connection to Oman is much more murky and unsopported.
Click to expand...

It's "Groupe Islamique Armé" - Armed Islamic Group...
 
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