WI Mayotte had voted against becoming a french department

[fhaessig]

Mayotte just voted to become a french Departement d'Outre Mer ( by 95+% of voters on a 60+% participation - according to the last article I saw - ).

What if the vote had gone the other way?

Would Mayotte have stayed a TOM or would it have gone for independence?

And if the later, would it have become part of Comores, or stayed an independent country by itself?

 

[Susano]

Isnt that then a bit too young to have an AH about it? Besides, with a 95% vote, such an AH seems very improbable.

In any case, nobody in their right mind would want to join the Comores. Thats why that one island even tried rejoining France... if at all, status quo as alternative, Id say.

 

[Berra]

I suspect they will get more money if they join France but it would be cooler if they went for Internet gambling and tax free saving.

 

[jacobus]

They would have been crazy to join the Comores. Too many coups d'etat.

 

[Electric Monk]

If I was Mayotte (or, you know, half of Africa) I'd vote to join France. Stable currency. Decent military. Part of the Eurozone. Passport and citizenship that lets you go/work/live anywhere in Europe and pretty easy to get elsewhere. Some financial problems and somewhat too rigid labour laws but a solid social net. Anti-immigration politicians are annoying, but if enough other African countries join that problem gets solved.


As for the AH… hmmm. Maybe Somalian pirates expand their operations and seize Mayotte?

 

[fhaessig]

As for the AH… hmmm. Maybe Somalian pirates expand their operations and seize Mayotte?

That's one.

Another, What if the Comorian saw the rejection of the referendum as a signal that Mayotte inhabitant don't want to stay french - or bet that the french will think so - and ( try to ) invade, taking advantage of the fact that CdG is - again - immobilised with engine troubles ? WOuld invasion be sucessfull? If so, would be see Falkland II/Malvinas on a shoestring budget?

 

[HJ Tulp]

The Comores attacking Mayotte? Aided by Alien Space Bats? It would be defeated by the local constabulary.

 

[fhaessig]

The Comores attacking Mayotte? Aided by Alien Space Bats? It would be defeated by the local constabulary.

All of 180 or so ( IIRC ) of them?

The DLEM may prove a more significant obstacle

 

[HJ Tulp]

All of 180 or so ( IIRC ) of them?

The DLEM may prove a more significant obstacle

Well you've answered your own question

Any invasion of Mayotte by the Comores would end up with alot of death bodies on the beach and considering that France does alot for the Comores (training, aid etc.) the Comores would become even more of a shithole.

 

[fhaessig]

Well you've answered your own question

DLEM is less than 150 men strong, IIRC.

Any invasion of Mayotte by the Comores would end up with alot of death bodies on the beach and considering that France does alot for the Comores (training, aid etc.) the Comores would become even more of a shithole.

DLEM is less than 150 men strong, IIRC.

The fact is that french military ( and gendarmes are still part of the military ) presence in Mayotte is minimal ( in the very low hundreds, AFAIK ). If Comores send enough bodies ( and that's the operational terms ). I believe they could overwhelm the french military presence. For a time at least. How the Mayotte population would react is something else. as well as how long it would take for Paris to send additionnal forces ( and there's the question of aircraft support, as CdG is unavailable. OTOH, 2 BPC with 20 helos each could still provide a lot of support. especially if they have half their group in Tigers ). That's why I was speaspeaking about Falkland on a shoestring budget. IF Comores can invade, they definitely are not on par with the Argentian forces, but the french do not have any carrier currently available.

 

[HJ Tulp]

A 100 Legionaires can take on ten times that many Comores.....militiamen. How are those Comorians going to get to Mayotte anyway? Even if in some way the Comorians manage to defeat the Legionaires the French wouldn't need a carrier to take out the Comorian occupation force. Frigates and subs could easily provide more then enough sealift, airlift (incase of the frigates) and fire-support to drive the invaders back in the sea.

 

[fhaessig]

A 100 Legionaires can take on ten times that many Comores.....militiamen. How are those Comorians going to get to Mayotte anyway? Even if in some way the Comorians manage to defeat the Legionaires the French wouldn't need a carrier to take out the Comorian occupation force. Frigates and subs could easily provide more then enough sealift, airlift (incase of the frigates) and fire-support to drive the invaders back in the sea.

10 times? Obviously. 100 times or more? maybe not. especially if attacked by surprise. At least for a time ( I pity anyone going after Legionaires operating in guerilla mode ). How to get there? It would have to be through the path illegal immigrants are currently using. As for the use of frigates and BPC ( I doubt subs would be of use ), it definitely would be enough. But these are not stationned in Mayotte. It would take some time before reinforcements can be sent.

 

[HJ Tulp]

I doubt there are 10.000 Comoran soldiers. Furthermore, it's all nice and dandy to disguise a thousand soldiers as refuges and get them on the island. Getting them armed is another thing. As is secrecy.

The subs could insert Commandos on the island. Silent death.