WI: fractured China after Ming

[rcduggan]

I have been doing some research on the late Ming dynasty, and a thought occurred to me. What if, instead of the Jurchen / Manchu uniting China... no one did?

Say the Manchus are prevented from invading somehow. Before that, there were many revolts against the Ming. There was Li Zicheng in Henan, Shanxi, and Shaanxi. He also took Beijing in 1644, and declared the Shun dynasty.

Around that time, there was also Zhang Xianzhong who conquered Sichuan in the 1640s. He declared the Daxi dynasty and apparently killed thousands of people (and made a giant pile of their ears and feet).

What if those revolts, coupled with a few more TTL creations (something like the Three Feudatory Revolt in Yunnan, and something in Guangdong and in Fujian all succeeded. The Ming have been overthrown, or at least marginalized somewhere in the south of China or on Taiwan. There are at least five separate empires in China, each claiming the Mandate of Heaven and fighting each other for it.

Would that be at all possible? I know people say the geography of China favors unification. But could this happen to China post-Ming, and how long could it conceivably last?

 

[rcduggan]

Bump... nothing?

 

[Typo]

Also there's the pirate who established a Ming remenant in Taiwan and planned on taking the Philipines. Adding a maritime component to fractured China.
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[rcduggan]

Also there's the pirate who established a Ming remenant in Taiwan and planned on taking the Philipines. Adding a maritime component to fractured China.
​

Yes, that was another thing I was considering. There was also a second Ming loyalist who fled to Yunnan, so there's another faction that could spring up.

 

[DaleCoz]

But what about the Manchus

I like the idea of multiple Chinese states,but historically the Manchus did a good job of replacing the Ming. What would keep them from eventually sweeping in and replacing whatever feuding states took the place of the Ming under these scenarios? I think you would have to have something cut the Manchus down to size for any of this to work. If that happened, then yeah I could easily see at least a period of China being divided.

Hmmm. I wonder what the Europeans would have done if China had been divided into warring states for a prolonged period. Russia would eventually start pushing in. Western Europe might try, but wouldn't have the degree of military superiority to conquer China until the later 1700s.

--------

Dale Cozort - 11 years of alternate history e-zines at:

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[Elidor]

If they stay divided until the 19th C. , they could end up like India

 

[rcduggan]

I like the idea of multiple Chinese states,but historically the Manchus did a good job of replacing the Ming. What would keep them from eventually sweeping in and replacing whatever feuding states took the place of the Ming under these scenarios? I think you would have to have something cut the Manchus down to size for any of this to work. If that happened, then yeah I could easily see at least a period of China being divided.

Hmmm. I wonder what the Europeans would have done if China had been divided into warring states for a prolonged period. Russia would eventually start pushing in. Western Europe might try, but wouldn't have the degree of military superiority to conquer China until the later 1700s.

My idea for a POD was as such (warning: convolution ahead): the Japanese don't invade Korea because they are still divided in the Sengoku. Thus Yi Sun-shin stays as a military commander on the northern border with the Manchu. He repairs and reforms the northern border defenses before his death later than OTL. When the Manchus invade Korea AIOTL, they are routed and Nurhaci is killed. The Koreans then launch attacks on the remaining Manchu, subduing them and preventing their invasion of China.

As for the second part: before the Qing invasion, the Mongols were pretty strong (although they were divided between the eastern Khalka Mongols and the western Oirats), and they might take advantage of the warring states in the south. Russia might try to expand, but in the 17th century they are much weaker than in the 19th. Note their loss to the Manchus in the late 1600s.

What I was thinking would be that Spain and other powers would attempt to obtain more concessions on the mainland, sort of like Macau but elsewhere. Maybe they would provide aid to some states, playing them off each other for maximum benefit. When the 19th rolls around, and China is still divided (which is a bit likely IMO) there might be a "Scramble for China" where the powers claim the warlords as protectorates.

Btw, there is a signature where you can put that other stuff, no need to paste it at the bottom of your post. I like your site though, your article in which the Germans launch ICBM's at New York as they lost ground in Russia was basically the first AH I read, many years ago.

If they stay divided until the 19th C. , they could end up like India

Exactly what I was thinking. Wow, TTL would be even more of a Britishwank.

 

[htgriffin]

Exactly what I was thinking. Wow, TTL would be even more of a Britishwank.

Who says the Brits would come out on top?

Still, there is a lot more cultural cohecien(sp?) in the Han chinese core. Probably enough to keep a far less British (or whatever) Chinese culture from forming than what happened on the subcontinent.

Tibet/Ugyhuristan/Mongolia/Manchuria end up vastly different though....

HTG

 

[Typo]

I like the idea of multiple Chinese states,but historically the Manchus did a good job of replacing the Ming. What would keep them from eventually sweeping in and replacing whatever feuding states took the place of the Ming under these scenarios? I think you would have to have something cut the Manchus down to size for any of this to work. If that happened, then yeah I could easily see at least a period of China being divided.

Hmmm. I wonder what the Europeans would have done if China had been divided into warring states for a prolonged period. Russia would eventually start pushing in. Western Europe might try, but wouldn't have the degree of military superiority to conquer China until the later 1700s.

Or maybe divided China remain innovative enough to avoid European hegemony

 

[rcduggan]

Who says the Brits would come out on top?

Still, there is a lot more cultural cohecien(sp?) in the Han chinese core. Probably enough to keep a far less British (or whatever) Chinese culture from forming than what happened on the subcontinent.

Tibet/Ugyhuristan/Mongolia/Manchuria end up vastly different though....

HTG

Well, I could see the Spanish moving in when it first happened... maybe some riches from China would prevent there OTL decline? With this POD, you are right that it would probably not be Britain who comes out on top ITTL.

AFAIK the southern parts of China were not completely Sinicized at this point, there were still some Miao and Yao rebellions up until the 19th century. So maybe if a colonial power occupied those regions, it could prevent massive Chinese assimilation, and instead leave some of the colonists culture. But anywhere where the Han are a majority is going to be much more resistant. Although you can't rule out what effect three hundred years of occupation would bring.

Or maybe divided China remain innovative enough to avoid European hegemony

Maybe in the beginning, but in the end as trade deficits begin to manifest in the 19th century, the powers are probably going to scramble for China (if it has not been done before then) as a new market to offset their losses in other economies.

 

[Faeelin]

Maybe in the beginning, but in the end as trade deficits begin to manifest in the 19th century, the powers are probably going to scramble for China (if it has not been done before then) as a new market to offset their losses in other economies.

This is where the cannons come in, no?

 

[rcduggan]

This is where the cannons come in, no?

Hmm?

.......

 

[Faeelin]

Hmm?

.......

A divided China may have a better military, capable of defeating (or not making it worth the effort) of Europeans.

 

[stevep]

A divided China may have a better military, capable of defeating (or not making it worth the effort) of Europeans.

Faeelin

Definitely a possibility. More difficult with the Chinese tradition of a universal state as that means strong pressures to unify and every ruler will want to be emperor. Its a big step psychologically from that to the situation in Europe where the main aim of the rulers, with odd exceptions, was to stop their rivals becoming supreme. However if enough of the Chinese statelets can become led by people with such a view then continued division and the cultural and economic vigor it can bring could occur. In that case China could be a significantly tougher military and economic rival of Europe in the industrial period.

Steve

 

[Faeelin]

Faeelin

Definitely a possibility. More difficult with the Chinese tradition of a universal state as that means strong pressures to unify and every ruler will want to be emperor. Its a big step psychologically from that to the situation in Europe where the main aim of the rulers, with odd exceptions, was to stop their rivals becoming supreme. However if enough of the Chinese statelets can become led by people with such a view then continued division and the cultural and economic vigor it can bring could occur. In that case China could be a significantly tougher military and economic rival of Europe in the industrial period.

Steve

Well, no one will want continued division; but then, neither did Napoleon. The idea of using the enemies of one's enemies as allies is hardly alien to China, which is what I think you're implying.

Mind, I think the most viable division is a north/south one.

 

[stevep]

Well, no one will want continued division; but then, neither did Napoleon. The idea of using the enemies of one's enemies as allies is hardly alien to China, which is what I think you're implying.

Mind, I think the most viable division is a north/south one.

Faeelin

By north/south do you just mean two components? Not sure that would be stable? Sooner or later some aspect would be likely to mean one would become more powerful than another and 'harmony' would be restored. I suspect that you would need a minimum of 4-5 groups to play off each other and stop any party becoming too successful.

The other potential problem is that, when China was split, it was often reunified by an external force, generally a semi-nomadic group from the north. You need to have the various Chinese states put down strong enough roots that they not only resist unifying forces but also, through military organisation, diplomacy or technical development say, that those with dangerous borders can maintain their independence from both internal and external forces.

Steve

 

[Faeelin]

By north/south do you just mean two components? Not sure that would be stable? Sooner or later some aspect would be likely to mean one would become more powerful than another and 'harmony' would be restored.

In the long run, sure; but in the long run with a pod in 1644 you get a divided China, assuming one of the states lasts as long as the Song did, will get you a divided China into the modern era.

[quoet] The other potential problem is that, when China was split, it was often reunified by an external force, generally a semi-nomadic group from the north. [/quote]

True, but in an era of muskets and culverins, this may change.

 

[rcduggan]

The other potential problem is that, when China was split, it was often reunified by an external force, generally a semi-nomadic group from the north. You need to have the various Chinese states put down strong enough roots that they not only resist unifying forces but also, through military organisation, diplomacy or technical development say, that those with dangerous borders can maintain their independence from both internal and external forces.

Steve

So would it be the Mongols in this case? My POD was that the Manchus don't invade, so the only other nomads around at the Mongols.