Why the Chinese play cricket (an Imperial Federation timeline)

Still holding up hope. The Habsburgs deserved better. Specially FF and Blessed karl
The A-H is rather different from the Other Great Powers except possibly Russia. The other seven. which while they may have significant ethnic minorities, are demographically dominated by a single ethic group and have a strong centralised system of government. However A-H is a patchwork of numerous ethnic groups (particularly true in the Hungarian administered portion). This, along with the Hungarians aggressive policy of Magyerisation leaves it far more prone to ethnic nationalism. On top of this is communication network is hodge podge of different rail gauges and has developed without and central planning resulting in a chaotic shambles, further encouraging regionalism. And finally, it essentially is split into two completely separate nations and almost competing governments, with a weak central government. All this makes the Habsburg Empire quite vulnerable to disintegrating into ethnical based independent nations.

And Karl? Not sure what's going to happen to him. He should avoid his OTL untimely demise in 1921,. But assuming he lives out his natural term ITTL Franz Ferdinand's hour glass doesn't run out till 1930, with Karl shuffling off his mortal coil in 1956. Actually thinking on it, possibly the best chance for Habsburg survival is for Karl to meet an early death, putting Otto on the throne at age 18. This of course assumes the Empire doesn't fly apart before that.
 
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Otto would be nice. It's hope against hope, but some sort of proto-EU in these lands would be a incredible improvement to OTL bloodbaths.
 
Otto would be nice. It's hope against hope, but some sort of proto-EU in these lands would be a incredible improvement to OTL bloodbaths.
An interesting little piece of trivia is that Franz Ferdinand's ITTL natural demise will actually be 11 February 1930. Otto's OTL death occurred on 4 July 2011 .So even though I really think this coming about is very unlikely, if it did it would give Otto a reign of 81 years and 171 days, utterly trouncing the current longest reign record holder Louis XIV who lasted 72 years and 110 days. That little factoid alone is so tempting lol.
 
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An interesting little piece of trivia is that Franz Ferdinand's ITTL natural demise will actually be 11 February 1930. Otto's OTL death occurred on 4 July 2011 .So even though I really think this coming about is very unlikely, if it did it would give Otto a reign of 81 years and 171 days, utterly trouncing the current longest reign record holder Louis XIV who lasted 72 years and 110 days. That little factoid alone is so tempting lol.
Wow, that would be cool!
 
Wow, that would be cool!
I've been giving it some thought, and it's not as unlikely as I thought. Wilson doesn't even get to run for president ITTL. So without Wlisonanism and his obsession with ridding Europe of monarchies and equal desire to foster rampant nationalism, the Austro-Hungarian Empire COULD (heavy emphasis on the could) survive even an OTL style defeat, at least in rump form. And even if it doesn't the Hapsburgs could remain on the throne of an independent Austria or Hungary or even both (some kind of common monarchy like the Commonwealth realms). But that is still all just pure speculation.
 
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I've been giving it some thought, and it's not as unlikely as I thought. Wilson doesn't even get to run for president ITTL. So without Wlisonanism and his obsession with ridding Europe of monarchies and equal desire to foster rampant nationalism, the Austro-Hungarian Empire COULD (heavy emphasis on the could) survive even an OTL style defeat, at least in rump form. And even if it doesn't the Hapsburgs could remain on the throne of an independent Austria or Hungary or even both (some kind of common monarchy like the Commonwealth realms). But that is still all just pure speculation.
Yes! I hold into those thoughts! Specially the complete survival. But the Archduchy of Austria and Kingdom of Hungary together sounds good too as a second option.
An interesting little piece of trivia is that Franz Ferdinand's ITTL natural demise will actually be 11 February 1930. Otto's OTL death occurred on 4 July 2011 .So even though I really think this coming about is very unlikely, if it did it would give Otto a reign of 81 years and 171 days, utterly trouncing the current longest reign record holder Louis XIV who lasted 72 years and 110 days. That little factoid alone is so tempting lol.
More of a reason to do it!
 
Yes! I hold into those thoughts! Specially the complete survival. But the Archduchy of Austria and Kingdom of Hungary together sounds good too as a second option.

More of a reason to do it!
I have to emphasis, I try to let the TL develop organicaly and follow it's own path logically, keeping my use use of my electic cattle prod to get it go where I want it too to a minimum, especially when it comes to continental Europe. As I said, just way too many unknowns at the moment and its incredibly dependent on the course the Great War follows and I literally have no idea what that will be at the moment. So this is all HIGHLY speculative, just one of many possible paths.

The Hapsburg Empire's unity is fundantentally fragile, not only for the reasons listed before. The ethnic nationalist genie is already becoming a major factor, the Empire is considerably underdeveloped, it's military split into several dicontected forces with huge problems with linguistic diversity. But more than that it is surrounded ethnically based nations (Italy, Serbia, Romania, and even Russia) who very much want to gobble up their own ethnic groups with the Empire and will play the nationalist card, deliberatly trying to stir up ethnic discord. Even if itt come out on the winning side, without major reform, sooner or later it will fall apart.
 
Jan-March 1909: Preparing to sit this one out
~Jan-March 1909: Preparing to sit this one out

January 1909: With fears of a European war now at unprecedented levels, the Danish Folketing reverses its previous stance and authorises the production of m/1908 short rifles increased to 15,000 with another 50,000 existing rifles converted over the next five years, along with the purchase of 500 Madsen light machine guns. Funding is also voted to modernise fortifications on the island of Zeeland to protect Copenhagen from surprise attack.

January 1909: During the Chinese Civil War the Xianfa and Zheng each purchased several thousand early model Madsen light machine guns from DRS in Denmark, most of which remain in inventory. These early models had difficulty feeding rimless ammunition due their feed interrupt being designed for the 8mm Danish rimmed cartridge. Unfortunately both sides had standardised on a rimless round, the Xianfa 0.303” British and Zheng 7.92mm Mauser. Since the end of the war, both DRS and Rexel Arms in Britain have redesigned the Madsen to resolve the feed issue and simplify the gun, with both now producing slightly different weapons. With large stocks of early model Madsens on hand, both the Xianfa and Zheng have modified their guns to these new patterns, the Zheng adopting the DRS M1906 and the Xianfa the Rexel Mk I, resulting both sides possessing a near identical light machine gun which nonetheless have significant issues with interchangeability.

January 1909: With the inauguration of US President elect William Taft still almost three months away and war in Europe appearing more likely every day due to the ongoing Bosnian Crisis. In the face of this volatile international situation calls begin begin made for a constitutional amendment to reduce the 'lame duck' period between the election of a new President and his taking office. Current President Roosevelt immediately expresses his support for the proposal, though he refuses to participate in any lobbying until his term ends in March. Nevertheless a substantial number of members of both houses of Congress launch a bipartisan lobbying campaign for such an amendment.

January 1909: With rigid airships now capable of flights of hundreds of kilometres, the Royal Navy orders its first example from Vickers Ltd. The hope is such a craft's high endurance, lifting capacity, reliability and safety when compared with aircraft will makes them valuable assets for naval reconnaissance. Additional, recognising the Germans have established a lead in airship technology and likely to utilise them in this manner, work also begins on the development of an anti aircraft gun to engage enemy aircraft.

February 1909: The 1908 French naval program calls for two dreadnoughts this year. Displacing 22,000 tons, the Courbet class will be armed with twelve 12” guns in a pair of superfiring turrets fore and aft along with two wing turrets, given a ten gun broadside. While it is initially intended to use the same advanced machinery featured in all major French warships since 1904, the Edgar Quinet class has proved disappointing on trials, and the decision is made to abandon the advanced machinery in favour of more conventional units.

February 1909: Since its creation in 1906 the British Army's single company strong Motor Corps has been employed in extensive experimental trials in attempt to develop effective methods for the use of motorised infantry and combat vehicles. These trials have been carried out not only in Britain, but throughout the Empire in a wide range of terrains and climates. With it now felt adequate methods have finally been developed, it is decided to expand the Corps into a four company battalion, with each company consisting of two lorried infantry platoons and a single machine gun car troop with five Maxim armed cars. Furthermore, it is believed the Corps existing unarmoured machine gun cars should be replaced with armoured cars to give protection from small arms. After extensive testing the a suitable vehicle has been developed by Rolls Royce based on their Silver Ghost chassis and powered by a 45kw engine.

February 1909: With both Australia and Canada having formed their own navies, the New Zealand government of Premier William Massey passes the Naval Defence Act, creating the New Zealand Naval Reserve. As with the Canadian and Australian navies, the Royal Navy gifts the old cruiser HMS Philomel for training. The new service is to initially consist of 520 volunteer reservists, growing to 3,900 over five years. These will be supported by a 300 strong regular cadre seconded from the Royal Navy, though the intention is to gradually replace these with personnel recruited from New Zealand. In addition to the cruiser, three F750T sloops are ordered for the service from Canada.

February 1909: With the two battlecruiser ordered in Canada now under construction, the Russians order the four dreadnoughts intended for the Baltic. The Gangut class superficially resemble the Italian Dante Alighiere with four triple 12” turrets in the same one fore, one aft, two amidships layout, though in this case it is due to concerns regarding top weight in the event of ice build up with superintending turrets. Protected by a 9” belt and capable of 23 knots, the feature an icebreaker bow for operations in the Gulf of Finland. In addition four cruisers are also ordered, out of the total of eight planned for the Baltic.

March 1909: With tensions in Europe due to the Bosnian Crisis continuing to increase, the Imperial Council holds a series of secret meetings in London to develop a unified Imperial response in the event of the outbreak of war. It quickly becomes apparent there is little enthusiasm for entering any such war, with it believed Imperial interests now primarily lay in Asia and the Pacific. Nevertheless is also accepted the prospect of either the Triple Alliance or Entente gaining a dominant position in Europe thus destroying the balance of power would pose a significant threat to the Empire. Thus the decision is made to remain neutral in the event of war but to maintain the potential of an Imperial entry into such a war to exert diplomatic pressure on both sides in an effort to preserve the balance of power. However it is hoped by following a similar approach at the upcoming Stockholm Conference, a suitable compromise solution can be obtained to resolve the crisis peacefully.

March 1909: New US President William Taft is inaugurated, replacing Roosevelt. He brings with him an entirely new cabinet replacing Elihu Root with foreign policy novice Philander Knox as Secretary of States. Taft and Knox almost immediately departs from Roosevelt's foreign policy, abandoning the previous direct engagement in favour of focusing on utilising US economic and business interests in a policy which will be termed 'dollar diplomacy.' The first major impact will be to downgrade the intended US involvement in the upcoming Stockholm Conference to resolve the Bosnian Crisis, with only Assistant Secretary of State Huntington Wilson heading the US delegation.

March 1909: With the steadily improving US Japanese relations, Trade between the two nations and US investment in Japan has increased noticeably. With the resulting economic growth having improved the government's financial situation, the Japanese Cabinet authorises a modest increase in naval expenditure, with four cruisers ordered rather the usual two.

March 1909: In a further move to counter the growing concern regarding the migration of British industry to the Empire, the Industrial Development Act is passed. This act in intended to encourage the growth of the higher technology sectors of the economy to replace the industry being lost, as well as providing incentives to encourage the adoption of modern techniques such as mass production and electrification to improve the competitiveness of British industry overall. While the act will prove successful in its first goal, the attempts to improve competitiveness will only slow the loss of lower skilled industries.

March 1909: Since the announcement of the Brazilian order for a pair of dreadnoughts, Argentina has been engaged in a frantic series of diplomatic manoeuvres endeavouring to somehow obtain one of the Brazilian ships to enable them to maintain parity. These efforts have come to nothing, leaving the Argentines with no other option than to purchase their own dreadnoughts. With their economy weaker economy limiting their budget, the Argentines call for competitive bids worldwide, but then repeatedly reject all bids and issue a revised set of requirements incorporating features they find desirable from the previous bids, resulting in accusations of the Argentines stealing the bidding companies trade secrets.

March 1909: Still concerned about the possibility for French expansion into South East Asia, Britain and Siam sign the Treaty of Bangkok ceding a number of provinces on the Kra Peninsula to the British controlled Federated Malay States. While the treaty does entail considerable territorial losses for Siam it also provides a substantial loan for Siamese development, a British guarantee of Siam's future territorial integrity, and provisions to end extraterritoriality for British subjects in Siam. Both will be major steps forwards for the Siamese, making it clear, the British will not tolerate further French expansion into Siam.
 
...the Argentines call for competitive bids worldwide, but then repeatedly reject all bids and issue a revised set of requirements incorporating features they find desirable from the previous bids, resulting in accusations of the Argentines stealing the bidding companies trade secrets.
Same as IOTL, I believe. Can't trust these foreigners.
 
April-June 1909: What is it good for
~April-June 1909: What is it good for

April 1909: With his appointment of an entirely new cabinet, President Taft has replaced Roosevelt's Secretary of the Navy Victor Metcalf with George Meyer. While Metcalf had supported the navy's calls for a balanced building program, Meyer adopts a policy of further limiting naval expenditure, with only two dreadnoughts and six destroyers authorised in the 1909 program. However the Wyoming class introduce turbine propulsion giving a speed of 21 knots and are armed with eight 14” guns in twin turrets, designed by Vickers in Britain due to the unavailability of a suitable domestic design. Additionally in a further cost cutting measure, he begin ordering the disposal of many obsolete warships, with the old battleship Texas, an armoured and two protected cruisers, the armoured ram Katahdin and six torpedo boats to be expended as target ships.

April 1909: The Bosnian Crisis deteriorates significantly when Austria-Hungary begins a partial mobilisation for an invasion of Serbia. Despite Russia yet to fully recovered from the Russo-Japanese War and 1905 Revolution, they commence their own preparations for mobilisation. This in turn sparks both France and Germany beginning planning for mobilisation, leading to the widespread belief war us now inevitable.

April 1909: The biannual Dano-Norwegian security meeting in Copenhagen is naturally dominated by ongoing Bosnian Crisis. While it is recognised neither nation can hope to repel a Great Power invasion even with the other's assistance, further steps must be taken to strengthen their defences, both as a deterrence to invasion and to allow sufficient time for the other Great Powers to intervene. With it clear any invasion of either country would have to be seaborne it is decided to order further coastal defence ships, with two built to a common design for each navy. On the political front, the meeting resolves to begin diplomatic efforts to bring Sweden into the common security framework.

May 1909: In preparation for the upcoming Brisbane Imperial Conference, the Dicey Report into the Imperial Constitution is released. The report accepts the existing unwritten Westminster Constitution as the basis of the evolving constitution, then goes on to identify three new sources. These being: doctrines, constitutional decisions made at Imperial Conferences; protocols, similar decisions made by the Imperial Council; and extensions, principles derived from existing doctrines or protocols. The report finds that the British Parliament in Westminster is broadly responsible for implementing Imperial policy in consultation with the Dominions at the Imperial conferences. Regarding avoiding the recent constitutional deadlock, it states while the Ottawa Doctrine requires decision making by consensus, the Durban Doctrine also commits the Dominions to collective action on developing and implementing policy, thus this consensus only needs to represent a clear majority. This will enter the Imperial Constitution as the Dicey Extension to the Ottawa Doctrine.

May 1909: The Zheng naval program announced late last year has created considerable comment throughout the world, though its impact has been strongest in Xianfa China, with many government and military deeply concerned at the potential of losing naval dominance gave them and the ability to strike at the Zheng rear, a factor considered vital in the Xianfa's survival during the first years of the Chinese Civil War. While there are calls for the Xianfa to order their own dreadnoughts to counter the Zheng ships, the Xianfa Grand Council rejects this on the advice of Emperor Zaitian. Instead Navy Commander in Chief Admiral Liu Gungxiong consults with the head of the British naval mission, Admiral Charles Ottley in order to counter the potential threat. While the specifications of the Zheng ships have not been made public, Ottley rightly surmises their limited size will seriously restrict their performance. He dismisses the dreadnoughts as marginal warships, while existing four Xianfa cruisers and an effective counter for the small Zheng cruisers. However he acknowledges the existing Xianfa destroyers are obsolete and outclassed by the Zheng ships, suggesting they be replaced as finances allow. Regarding the Zheng submarines, he insists these are experimental boats suitable only for harbour defence. In light of these discussions, the Xianfa response is confined to ordering two 750 ton destroyers from Britain with another pair to be constructed in the Fuzhou naval yard with British assistance.

May 1909: With war now seeming inevitable, the Stockholm Conference on the Bosnian Crisis begins, with both the Entente and Triple Alliance initially appearing utterly intransigent. However British Foreign Secretary skilfully uses potential British backing in any war to manoeuvre both toward compromise, greatly helped by an obvious Italian unwillingness to support their allies, along with the US delegation simply following the British line due to disinterest by the new administration. As neither side are willing to risk war with the prospect of the British backing the other side, a compromise is eventually reached allowing Austria-Hungary to annex Bosnia, while Serbia gains Novi Pazar as compensation. However Russian demands for access to the Turkish Straits are rejected due British refusal to allow any modification to the 1841 Straits Convention, leading to a massive deterioration of Anglo-Russian relations. While the conference does defuse the Bosnian Crisis, it leaves a lasting legacy of hostility between the European Great Powers and makes it clear any possibility of the British joining either bloc is a thing of the past.

May 1909: Since the granting of responsible government to the two Boer Dominions in 1907, the Southern African Dominions have been working toward some form of federation, similar to Canada and Australia. While this has broad support in principle, it has also proved difficult to find an acceptable constitutional structure, with a significant minority of British South Africans fearful any such union would lead to further erosion of the rights of non whites. Eventually a solution is found. As the creation of the proposed union would require an act of the British Parliament. Thus any South African government would be forced to request the British Parliament alter the act if it wished to change or remove these rights. With this compromise in place it is hoped the Union of South Africa will be created in 1910.

June 1909: Despite being ordered over a year ago, construction Russian battlecruiser Kiev at Canadian Vickers has been delayed by the need to wait for her sister Moskva to be launched as the yard has only one slipway large enough to accommodate them. With company having high hopes of winning further international contracts, a second larger slip is already under construction, with the company already aggressively bidding for the recently announced Argentine dreadnoughts.

June 1909: Since the Young Turk Revolution in July last year, Ottoman Sultan Abdul Hamid Ii has been looking for an opportunity to return to absolute rule. Since the reinstatement of the 1876 Constitution, various ethnic and religious minorities throughout the Empire, particularly the Armenian Christians, have begun organising politically in an effort to achieve greater autonomy. This has in turn led to a surge in agitation by Islamic fundamentalists, calling for the imposition of Sharia Law and strict regulation of Christian and other religious minorities. As a result of this agitation a number of Muslim units in Constantinople mutiny, demanding a return to strict Islamic rule. The Sultan seizes the opportunity, aligning himself with the mutineers and proclaiming the constitution once again suspended, restoring his absolute rule. The initial constitutionalist response is deficient and the Sultan quickly takes control of Constantinople. However the Young Turk movement retains considerable support in the provinces. A 35,000 strong force under Mahmud Shevket Pasha is dispatched to retake the capital. Initially Shevket Pasha attempts to resolve the situation through negotiation, but after several days of fruitless talks, he orders his troops into the city. Shevket Pasha's men face limited opposition, though in a number of areas, mutineers do put up a fierce resistance, leading to some bloody fighting. Nevertheless, the city is soon retaken and the coup suppressed. In the aftermath, Abdul Hamid will be deposed and sent into exile and his brother elevated to the throne as Mehmed V. Despite the coup's failure it will result in Islamic extremists launching a wave of violence against Armenian, Greek and Syrian Christians which will come to be known as the Adana massacre and leave 25,000 Christians dead.

June 1909: Since the end of the Chinese Civil War, the flow of goods and people between Zheng and Xianfa controlled territory has severely limited, causing major economic disruption throughout China. As part of his new foreign policy program of 'dollar diplomacy' US President Taft, supported by Japanese Prime Minister Saionji Kinmochi, arranges talks between Xianfa Internal Affairs Minister Kang Youwei and senior Zheng Grand Council member Wu Zhihui, with the aim of reopening the border. With both sides well aware the current situation is seriously hampering their recovery, the talks progress well, resulting in an agreement to allow movement across the border to resume, albeit under strict controls and restrictions. The Honolulu Agreement will mark the beginning of trade between the two Chinas.
 
Actually, both Denmark and Norway can be invaded by land, though seapower will be needed to complete the conquests.
Technically yes, but Sweden can fairly safely regarded remaining neutral at least at the outbreak of any war and the prospect of invading Norway via Finmark would, to say the least, pose some truly formidable challenges. Yes Denmark does have a land border with Germany, but Danish strategy at this time was to essentially abandon the entire Jutland Peninsula along with Funen, Lolland etc, defending only only Zealand.

Realistically the threat to Denmark was either side trying to seize control of the Danish Straits. The threat to Norway on the other hand was due to the importance of raw materials such as Norwegian and Swedish iron, copper and nickel to Germany, parallels to the Second World War are rather unavoidable.
 
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One thing I am curious about. With the increased development of the colonies how has that changed the development of Canada. For the first 50years after confederation there was a significant drain of Anglophone and Francophone emigration to the USA; to the point that the 1900 US census shows about 1.2 million Canadians living in the USA or just over 1 in 6 total Canadians. With significantly increased investment has that been slowed and have immigration patterns changed at all between the US and Canada with ever so slightly more choosing Canada over the USA. Even small changes could lead to large swings in population down the line given that in the time period the fertility rate was 4+ children per woman in both countries. In addition the period of 1900-1914 (with the outbreak of WW1) was a period of tremendous immigration to Canada so an earlier start to the war could also lead to radically changed demographics. On the other hand a period of increased tensions without war plus a stronger economy could lead to even more immigration to Canada than historically.
 
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