Soviets are still alive after Germany won WW1?

[Bukabuck]

In most popular timeline about Central Power's victory in the WW1 "Kaiserreich" Soviets were defeated by Whites and USSR never was happened. So can there be a different CP victory timeline, where Soviets still won Russian civil war?

 

[Onkel Willie]

It seems unlikely to me. A victorious Germany after WW I would trie to kill Soviet Russia in the cradle once it has outlived its usefulness.

 

[ChaosNDiscord]

But would they be able to do so? They germans may have won but if the soviets are involved the war has lasted at least 3-4 years which means the German armies and people are exhausted.
They may offer arms and some volunteers, even seize a port, but I don't expect a heavier hand in Russia than what the western allies did otl - except to protect any German puppet states.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

To be honest I don't see either the whites or the Soviets surviving in this situation. As said the Germans will want the Soviets gone and after a brief pause will resume their attacks on the East smashing them. The Whites on the other hand relied on allied support and without that can't last long. You're going to see a German puppet state in West Russia and the Ukraine with the rest of the Russian Empire descending into chaos and warlordism.

 

[David T]

An old post of mine:
***
How about them supporting neither the Bolsheviks nor the pro-Allied majority of the Whites but setting up a puppet government of their own like Skoropadski's in Ukraine? Krasnov would be an obvious figurehead...

(In OTL, even when the Kaiser rejected the idea of military intervention against the Bolsheviks in the summer of 1918, he significantly added the words "without foreclosing future opportunities." https://books.google.com/books?id=5mSkxsos488C&pg=PA184 A German victory in the West might provide such an opportunity, given that the Germans were well aware that the Bolsheviks still wanted a revolution in Germany.)

The Bolsheviks might be the lesser evil compared with strongly anti-German moderate socialists and Kadets (some Kadets, like Milyukov were willing to reconsider their hostility to Germany but they wanted a serious revision of Brest-Litovsk). But was that really the only choice open to the Germans if they won in the West? I know it's been objected that the German people would be in no mood for a new war, but the Red Army was in its infancy, and replacing the Bolsheviks with a puppet government would not take a huge military effort...

 

[Bukabuck]

An old post of mine:
***
How about them supporting neither the Bolsheviks nor the pro-Allied majority of the Whites but setting up a puppet government of their own like Skoropadski's in Ukraine? Krasnov would be an obvious figurehead...

(In OTL, even when the Kaiser rejected the idea of military intervention against the Bolsheviks in the summer of 1918, he significantly added the words "without foreclosing future opportunities." https://books.google.com/books?id=5mSkxsos488C&pg=PA184 A German victory in the West might provide such an opportunity, given that the Germans were well aware that the Bolsheviks still wanted a revolution in Germany.)

The Bolsheviks might be the lesser evil compared with strongly anti-German moderate socialists and Kadets (some Kadets, like Milyukov were willing to reconsider their hostility to Germany but they wanted a serious revision of Brest-Litovsk). But was that really the only choice open to the Germans if they won in the West? I know it's been objected that the German people would be in no mood for a new war, but the Red Army was in its infancy, and replacing the Bolsheviks with a puppet government would not take a huge military effort...

I think that puppet Russian government is ASB. Germany already got a lot of anti-occupation uprisings in the Ukraine, Baltics and Belarus. Occupation of western Russia will lead to full partisan scale war against them. I can imagine two scenarios:
1.Some important White figure like Kolchak, Denikin or even Komuch lead a united Russian front against Russian puppet government.
2.Left SRs get a lot of popularity after fall of RSFSR and create their own Russian Republic on the lands of the Bolsheviks, which the Germans did not reach. (due to their anti-german sentiment and attempts to break Brest-Litovsk treaty). I guess that they would create popular front with other socialists to achieve victory.

 

[David T]

I think that puppet Russian government is ASB. Germany already got a lot of anti-occupation uprisings in the Ukraine, Baltics and Belarus. Occupation of western Russia will lead to full partisan scale war against them. I can imagine two scenarios:
1.Some important White figure like Kolchak, Denikin or even Komuch lead a united Russian front against Russian puppet government.
2.Left SRs get a lot of popularity after fall of RSFSR and create their own Russian Republic on the lands of the Bolsheviks, which the Germans did not reach. (due to their anti-german sentiment and attempts to break Brest-Litovsk treaty). I guess that they would create popular front with other socialists to achieve victory.

One other possibility is that instead of seeking an outright puppet government, the Germans reconcile themselves with the main body of Whites. (As I noted, even in OTL, some , like Milyukov, were rethinking their support of the Entente.) On the Whites' part, the reasoning will be, "Yes, we honored our commitment to the Entente as long as it had a chance of winning. But it has been defeated now, and our only choice is between the Germans and the Bolsheviks, and the Germans are the lesser evil." On the Germans' part, it will be, "Yes, we supported the Bolsheviks because they helped bring about the ruin of the Russian mlitary, and because they were the only possible government in Russia that was willing to do business with us. But they still tried to incite revolution in Germany even when they were helpless, and they are now starting to build up a Red Army. Surely the Whites, now that they are willing to do business with us, are more compatible with us ideologically." To bring about this alliance, there might be some relaxation of Brest-Litovsk; for example Skoropadskii might be "encouraged" to agree to a federation with Great Russia (as he attempted in OTL when the Germans had been defeated). Some things the Whites would just have to accept, like the loss of ethnic Poland to a German-client Kingdom of Poland.

That would still, of course, leave (as you note) the problem of partisan war by the Bolsheviks (and other left-wing socialists) but some in Germany might consider that a lesser evil than having the Bolsheviks in Moscow and Petrograd inciting revolution in Germany. Again, the fact that the Germans seriously considered military action against the Bolsheviks in OTL in the summer of 1918 and that the Kaiser in turning it down added the words "without foreclosing future opportunities" indicates to me that the German tolerance for the Bolsheviks would not last long.

 

[fasquardon]

In most popular timeline about Central Power's victory in the WW1 "Kaiserreich" Soviets were defeated by Whites and USSR never was happened. So can there be a different CP victory timeline, where Soviets still won Russian civil war?

It does depend on how the Germans won the war. With a late victory, I suspect that the Germans would lack the manpower and financial resources to destroy the Bolsheviks (just as the victorious Entente didn't intervene enough to swing a win for the Whites even with the wealth and power of the USA). Also, do the Germans even favour the Whites? I suspect that while a German victory means Russia loses more land, the Bolsheviks would end up winning the civil war even faster.

fasquardon

 

[ObssesedNuker]

It does depend on how the Germans won the war. With a late victory, I suspect that the Germans would lack the manpower and financial resources to destroy the Bolsheviks (just as the victorious Entente didn't intervene enough to swing a win for the Whites even with the wealth and power of the USA). Also, do the Germans even favour the Whites? I suspect that while a German victory means Russia loses more land, the Bolsheviks would end up winning the civil war even faster.

fasquardon

This. If after a gruelling, barely squeezed-out triumph over the WAllies, it's entirely conceivable that the Germans look at their domestic situation and decide that they have better things to do at home. Particularly if it takes until 1920 or later, since by that point the Red's had gained the solid upper-hand and the White Armies were in full rout.

 

[fasquardon]

This. If after a gruelling, barely squeezed-out triumph over the WAllies, it's entirely conceivable that the Germans look at their domestic situation and decide that they have better things to do at home. Particularly if it takes until 1920 or later, since by that point the Red's had gained the solid upper-hand and the White Armies were in full rout.

And since for the Bolsheviks to have a shot, Russia has to have gone through a long and grueling fight, I struggle to imagine how the Germans could win AND for there to be worker and soldier's soviets in Russia with a shot at winning power there is for there to be a long grueling fight in the west also.

fasquardon