Rumsfeldia: Fear and Loathing in the Decade of Tears

[John Farson]

I predict that Rumsfeld will get overthrown sometime in 1985 or early 1986. However even if he got kicked out on May 1st 1982, it would still be appropriate to call the 1980s Rumsfelda- because whoever succeeds Rumsfeld will be dealing with the mess he caused for at least the next decade, probably longer. I do agree that Rumsfeld isn't going to lose in 1984 - that would be too clean and would make repairing the damage to US political system at least comparatively straightforward. A military coup, revolution or another impeachment, even if someone like Gavin is around to take over, would leave things even more bitter and divided than before.

True. Look at Agnew. Even though he only lasted 9-10 months, his tenure was enough to screw up the US (and large parts of the world) for the rest of the decade and more. You could have called the 1970s "Agnewia" with a straight face. That's why I'm skeptical about all the talk of Rumsfeld being a cinch for re-election in 1984. It was Urban Fox (I believe) who pointed out that for all their self-impression of being Machiavellian geniuses, Rumsfeld, Cheney and co OTL have only been really good at messing up things. It looks like the same thing is true here, what with martial law, the virus, Southern Africa, killing the space program (for that one thing alone, Thande would travel back in time to Terminate his ass) etc., any one of which could blow up in Rummy's face (and knowing this TL, they all will blow up, maybe at the same time). He's not operating in a vacuum, and Drew has indicated that Rummy's enemies will be setting up roadblocks against him.

Even Rummy losing in 1984 would not necessarily be a clean event, if he and his people are caught committing massive vote rigging and voter suppression. Particularly if they're still trying to do those things under the pretext of "martial law".

 

[teg]

True. Look at Agnew. Even though he only lasted 9-10 months, his tenure was enough to screw up the US (and large parts of the world) for the rest of the decade and more. You could have called the 1970s "Agnewia" with a straight face. That's why I'm skeptical about all the talk of Rumsfeld being a cinch for re-election in 1984. It was Urban Fox (I believe) who pointed out that for all their self-impression of being Machiavellian geniuses, Rumsfeld, Cheney and co OTL have only been really good at messing up things. It looks like the same thing is true here, what with martial law, the virus, Southern Africa, killing the space program (for that one thing alone, Thande would travel back in time to Terminate his ass) etc., any one of which could blow up in Rummy's face (and knowing this TL, they all will blow up, maybe at the same time). He's not operating in a vacuum, and Drew has indicated that Rummy's enemies will be setting up roadblocks against him.

Even Rummy losing in 1984 would not necessarily be a clean event, if he and his people are caught committing massive vote rigging and voter suppression. Particularly if they're still trying to do those things under the pretext of "martial law".

I actually called it Agnewland.

Another thing to point out is that not are things worse for the US, but the Soviets are behaving much intelligently (refusing to get drawn into central China for example). Although when Andropov dies things to get messy if the more conservative elements of the Politburo take over.

I'm going to be away for a bit because I want to get to work on a timeline of my own and I'd sort of like to start it on 1000th post.

Great update BTW Drew.

teg

 

[Heavy]

I believe Drew mentioned (in the Fear and Loathing and Gumbo thread, though it's been a while since I read it) that one of the avenues he wanted to explore with this timeline and its predecessor was the erosion of the two-party system in America.

Consequently, it's possible that Rumsfeld's first term will prove to be so divisive and injurious that the next general election won't be a two-horse race, and even if Rumsfeld wins it will go down in history as the single most disputed vote in United States electoral history. In short, it will prove to be the sort of thing that shakes the political landscape to its very foundations.

That's the sort of situation I could imagine arising, especially in this timeline.

 

[Drew]

French Presidential Term

From: Fear, Loathing and Gumbo on the Campaign Trail ‘72:

"October 15, 1978

In a national referendum 61.1% of French voters who cast ballots (53% of all eligible voters) approve of the reduction of the Presidential term from seven years to five years, and a three consecutive term limit on any one individual holding the Presidency of the French Republic. The new term will take effect after the next Presidential election currently scheduled for May 1981.

President Francois Mitterrand, the incumbent, has his current term grandfathered out of the change, so that he can stand for re-election in 1981 and potentially serve three more terms if he chooses."

 

[Drew]

Michael Foot, Deputy Prime Minister

I don’t think I did publish a British Cabinet after the 1981 Election, but here’s some of what transpired there:

In 1977 Michael Foot was Secretary of State for Employment, Barbara Castle was Deputy Prime Minister and Party Leader in the House; the latter to cement an alliance between the moderate and left wings of the Labour Party.

In the intervening years Ms. Castle defected, but Michael Foot did not, staying with the government. In the subsequent shuffling he became Deputy PM and Lord President of the Council, again to place a left-wing figure in the center of Cabinet, both to hold the government party together and to challenge the defectors of True Labour, later SDP.

At the time of Healey’s heart failure we have:

Denis Healey MP, Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury
Roy Jenkins MP, Chancellor of the Exchequer
Michael Foot MP, Deputy Prime Minister and Lord President of the Council
Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs - James Callaghan
Secretary of State for Defence - David Owen
Secretary of State for the Home Office – Terence Boston
Secretary of State for Northern Ireland – Bill Rodgers
Secretary of State for Industry – Roy Mason

Cledwyn Hughes, the previous Home Secretary lost his seat in 1981 and so was sent up to the Lords, Boston received a promotion for his tireless work in Northern Ireland.

I believe I had Tony Crosland involved in labour negotiations in 1980, which would have made quite an impact if he had, considering he died in 1977. Since Mr. Healey is opposed to undead cabinet ministers on principle, Roy Mason was tucked into that slot.

Healey focused on stability and government balance in the 1981 election, and so his shuffles afterward were minor, particularly at the top, to underscore that theme, at least for the first year.

The office of Deputy Prime Minister is a political one rather than constitutional one, not analogous to the Vice President of the United States. The office gives standing to some person who represents another wing of the party, a potential future leader, or as in the case of the current British government a senior position for the leader of the junior partner in a coalition. There is no automatic succession to the top post however. (The current government of Canada doesn’t use the title, and no one misses it – the absence creates no constitutional issue per se).

In this case Foot is “co-ordinator” of the Cabinet, a term deliberately chosen to indicate that his status as the chairman is more symbolic than real in terms of political power, and that in the absence Healey the true leadership will be a triumvirate of Callaghan, Jenkins and Owen, with Foot as the consolidating figurehead. Foot may get to do one or two things to demonstrate that the government is in firm hands, especially as there is a national crisis in the offing, but on a very tight leash.

 

[Drew]

e.g.
U.S.: Unemployment: 14.4%, Prime Interest Rate: 9.1%; GDP: $ 2,140 (Billion)> [2,626 Billion]

The figure in square brackets is the OTL GDP of the nations involved at the end of 1981, so as to have a point of comparison with where they are now. The main emphasis is to show that the United States is having a decline, and this is having a negitive effect on Japan, as they have a close trading relationship.

The UK, France and West Germany are doing much better. Italy is suffering from a top-heavy state system.

India is developing more rapidly in part because of a self reliance policy, but also because the government of Prime Minister Das is more open to market-oriented reforms than the Gandhis were.

 

[Drew]

True. Look at Agnew. Even though he only lasted 9-10 months, his tenure was enough to screw up the US (and large parts of the world) for the rest of the decade and more. You could have called the 1970s "Agnewia" with a straight face ...

Ahh, those were the days....

., any one of which could blow up in Rummy's face (and knowing this TL, they all will blow up, maybe at the same time). He's not operating in a vacuum, and Drew has indicated that Rummy's enemies will be setting up roadblocks against him.

If you look at the OTL career of Donald H. Rumsfeld, this about sums it up neatly (and the Cheney Vice Presidency too). This time they've brought their "unique" skills to the Presidency at a crucial time.

Even Rummy losing in 1984 would not necessarily be a clean event, if he and his people are caught committing massive vote rigging and voter suppression. Particularly if they're still trying to do those things under the pretext of "martial law".

Some may even look back at Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew with a sense of nostalgic fondness once this is over with...

 

[Drew]

I think it's only considered a rational possiblity by Agnew (and Rarick, sort of): and he's hardly a voice of reason..

Reason left town long ago. The Nattering Nabobs need not apply.

 

[Mr.J]

Consequently, it's possible that Rumsfeld's first term will prove to be so divisive and injurious that the next general election won't be a two-horse race, and even if Rumsfeld wins it will go down in history as the single most disputed vote in United States electoral history. In short, it will prove to be the sort of thing that shakes the political landscape to its very foundations.

That's the sort of situation I could imagine arising, especially in this timeline.

I hope so - crazy elections and Constitutional crises are what I started reading this TL for after all

 

[Mr.J]

Some may even look back at Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew with a sense of nostalgic fondness once this is over with...

I have this weird suspicion Spiro's going to be sitting in the Oval Office again before this is over... sure, it's illegal, but when has that ever stopped him?

 

[Drew]

I fleshed out the editing note - Paisley confronts Pope with a bit on their encounter at Demagore:

Friday March 12

- confrontation with Paisley

In the midst of the scuffling between partisan groups, which are barely held at bay by the RUC and British military troops, Ian Paisley manages to get close enough to Pope Pius XIII that he can be heard shouting insults at him. The Pope stops and makes the sign of the cross in Paisley’s direction, clearly irritating the DUP leader even further.

Asked about it later the Pope comments: “I was blessing him, of course. It was my hope that the Holy Spirit would touch him, and moderate his rhetoric.”

Paisley: “It was nothing but an insult – a blatant attempt to damn me with curse of Roman popery! I accept no blessing from that man, not until he renounces his Roman heresy and admits to his part in the plot to destroy the loyalist community!”
------------------------------------

The U.S. two party system is on life support at this point -- and Rummy may well be holding the plug!

On the other hand they my just be sticking their fingers in the socket -- only time will tell...

 

[DD951]

Some may even look back at Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew with a sense of nostalgic fondness once this is over with...

Now there's a scary thought (Don't suppose you're trying to compete with AANW, FAT, or DoD for most Vlad Tepes Award-winning moments in a non-ASB TL? )

Though a question, if it wouldn't give away too much- with the upsurge of violence causing problems for left-leaning governments (i.e. the Unionist violence in NI & the far-right domestic terrorism in Spain), would people be onto something if they were wondering if Rummy had a hand in it, given what he thinks of those governments, & considering that a number of Agnew administration alumni, financial backers, & others in that set were basically co-conspirators in the coup attempt in Italy TTL, & AIUI, have a number of significant positions in the Rumsfeld administration?

(I'd also imagine that conspiracy theories are going to be quite the growth industry ITTL, & they'll be more correct than not about at least a few things)

 

[vultan]

(I'd also imagine that conspiracy theories are going to be quite the growth industry ITTL, & they'll be more correct than not about at least a few things)

Oliver Stone will be a happy, happy man.

 

[DD951]

Oliver Stone will be a happy, happy man.

Yeah, he'll have a lot to work with, assuming he himself doesn't run afoul of a conspiracy that actually exists, or otherwise angers someone in the Rumsfeld administration enough to have him thrown in jail on some trumped-up charge, deliberately slander him to utterly ruin his career, or possibly even have him killed (perhaps arranging an accident that'll have people speculating in the same way they do about George Lucas or making it look like a random street crime), & there probably are people in Rummy's administration who would do just that, and they seem to be trying to create an environment where it's possible to do just that (& make COINTELPRO pale in comparison)

 

[Porthos]

I actually can't help but think what's going to happen to the Internet in this timeline. We're right around the time of the rise of BBSes in OTL (CBBS getting a shout out in FLotCT). Not much longer until the days of CompuServe and GEnie. Then it's just a hop skip and a jump to The WELL, Netcom, and all of the rest of the inital dialup companies.

After checking out FLotCT, I see that ARPANET was still plugging along, looking into TCP/IP. But with NASA on the choping block, and agencies facing an across the board budget slash, it makes me wonder if CSNET comes into being. And if it doesn't, what then? Does computer networking remain an series of island communities, with some cross pollination? Do mergers/company failures reduce the playing field so much a sort of pseudo-Internet emerges anyway, but dominated by corporate guardians?

This is a pretty critical time for what would become the Internet in OTL. And, if what we have seen so far, a pretty unstable one.

 

[Archibald]

President Francois Mitterrand, the incumbent, has his current term grandfathered out of the change, so that he can stand for re-election in 1981 and potentially serve three more terms if he chooses."

Which mean Mitterrand can theorically last until 1996, as per OTL ? Unless of course cancer decides otherwise.

Dear Drew: if you really, really intend to screw France like you screwed America; and for that seek a French Rumsfeld or Agnew or an hybrid of the two, I strongly suggest Charles Pasqua.
He is as machiavellian as Rumsfeld, and his corruption would make Spiro looks like Eliott Ness.
As a bonus
- he is a Gaullist, even more than Chirac (who has politically crashed, burned and died early in this TL)
- he in fact challenged Chirac on this ground after the 1988 defeat
- he had a brilliant career at the SAC, the dirty side of Gaullism
- he is the kind of guy that is not against an alliance with Le Pen
- as a bonus, in 1983 he was candidate for mayorship of Neuilly sur Seine near Paris against a very young guy named Nicolas Sarkozy. He lost because Sarko somewhat proved even more machiavellian than him.

 

[rcduggan]

Back in the day I was sketching out some ideas for a story set in China in the Protect and Survive universe ... but I've been re-reading this TL's Chinese excerpts and seems like you've already done it before me

Anyway, made my day to see there was a new update. Things can always get worse, can't they? Hope Healy doesn't kick the bucket ...

 

[M. A. Dickens]

Back in the day I was sketching out some ideas for a story set in China in the Protect and Survive universe ... but I've been re-reading this TL's Chinese excerpts and seems like you've already done it before me

Anyway, made my day to see there was a new update. Things can always get worse, can't they? Hope Healy doesn't kick the bucket ...

A Chinese P&S just might be brighter than TTL. At least some of the local governments would've survived a nuclear war and remained somewhat functional...

Marc A

 

[Richter10]

I'm afraid to ask, but how Brazil is doing at this point of TL?

 

[Iñaki]

Originally posted by Archibald
Dear Drew: if you really, really intend to screw France like you screwed America; and for that seek a French Rumsfeld or Agnew or an hybrid of the two, I strongly suggest Charles Pasqua.
He is as machiavellian as Rumsfeld, and his corruption would make Spiro looks like Eliott Ness.
As a bonus
- he is a Gaullist, even more than Chirac (who has politically crashed, burned and died early in this TL)
- he in fact challenged Chirac on this ground after the 1988 defeat
- he had a brilliant career at the SAC, the dirty side of Gaullism
- he is the kind of guy that is not against an alliance with Le Pen
- as a bonus, in 1983 he was candidate for mayorship of Neuilly sur Seine near Paris against a very young guy named Nicolas Sarkozy. He lost because Sarko somewhat proved even more machiavellian than him.

Ehem, ehem, you know that France has nuclear weapons?

Dont give ideas to Drew