Reza Shah Pahlavi dies in 1931

[Phalamus]

Reza Shah Pahlavi, the second to last monarch of Iran, was an interesting and colorful figure. His historical legacy is decidedly more positive than that of his son, and he is seem by some as an Ataturk-like figure for Iran, a great modernizer. However, in terms of practical long-term results, it seems that his reign was... a bit of mixed bag.

From what I know (which is admittedly not much since this is way outside my area of expertise, so bear that in mind), it appears that he started off strong. During the early years after his deposition of the the Qajar dynasty, he was able to count of the expertise of a cadre of (from all accounts highly competent) western-educated technocrats like Abdolshossein Teymourtash, Ali-Akbar Davar, and others. However, he would soon become paranoid about these ministers potentially usurping his authority and started to exercise a more autocratic rule.

The parliament assented to his decrees, the free press was suppressed, and the swift incarceration of political leaders like Mossadegh, the murder of others such as Teymourtash, Sardar Asad, Firouz, Modarres, Arbab Keikhosro and the suicide of Davar, ensured that any progress towards democratization was stillborn and organized opposition to the Shah, impossible. Reza Shah treated the urban middle class, the managers, and technocrats with an iron fist; as a result his state-owned industries remained underproductive and inefficient. The bureaucracy fell apart, since officials preferred sycophancy, when anyone could be whisked away to prison for even the whiff of disobeying his whims.He confiscated land from the Qajars and from his rivals and into his own estates. The corruption continued under his rule and even became institutionalized. Progress toward modernization was spotty and isolated as it could only take place with Shah's approval. Eventually the Shah became totally dependent on the military and secret police to retain power; in return, these state organs regularly received funding up to 50 percent of available public revenue to ensure their loyalty.

- An interesting overview of his later years from wiki

It appears that 1931 was the turning point for Teymourtash specific, so let's say Reza Shah conveniently suffers a heart in the beginning of that year and dies. This would (presumably) result in a regency for the 12 years old Mohammad Reza, and the technocrats still in power without Reza Shah having turned against them.

What would happen from then? Could Iran have a better 1930s? If WWII happens as OTL, is the Anglo-Soviet invasion inevitable? How does the country develop long term?

 

[Phalamus]

Oh, damn. Wrong forum. Can I get it moved?

 

[raharris1973]

If WWII happens as OTL, is the Anglo-Soviet invasion inevitable? How does the country develop long term?

This seems entirely dependent on if the succeeding ruling group can be both stable, and appease British and Soviet security concerns sufficiently during the war (which means logistical cooperation and minimizing Germans) without provoking natural national pride reactions that would provoke destabilization of the ruling group.