Portuguese North America from the Pacific

[Phalamus]

I have recently become obsessed with exploring the possibility of some kind of Portuguese retaliation to Spanish claims on Southeast Asia following the Magellan expedition of 1519-1522.

For most of the 1520s, Spain claimed the right to colonise the east indies because they had been able to reach them by sailing their side of the Tordesillas line (apparently, while people did know that the Earth was round when they signed the treaty, nobody bothered to take that into account), leading to a series of military confrontations in the Moluccas. Eventually, relationships between the two countries improved as a result of a double marriage and Spain became frustrated with its inability to find a return route from the Moluccas to their American colonies, resulting in the issue being settled in the Treaty of Zaragoza of 1529, which established an anti-meridian to the Todesillas meridian. Spain would later blatantly ignore this and colonise the Philippines anyway, but oh well...

Anyway, I'm interested in exploring a scenario where Spain finds the OTL Manila-Acapulco route earlier, and as such are unwilling to relinquish their claims. In retaliation, the Portuguese crown dispatches an expedition to claim territory in the American continent by sailing from the East Indies ("it's in our side of the line bruh").

This seems very plausible, and I like the idea of supplementing it with a secondary earlier POD where the Tomé Pires embassy to China (1516-1524) is successful, resulting in an ealier Portuguese port in China that could either be in Macau as OTL or in some other part of the Pearl River Delta. This would result in a stronger Portuguese presence in East Asia, and probably lead to earlier trade with Japan and the Ryukyus.

Now, the problem is figuring out which territory in the American continent the Portuguese could possibly claim. They would most likely want Peru, but that would be very difficult.

So how about North America? Imagine a Portuguese claim similar to Francis Drake's OTL New Albion (basically everything North of Mexico), that eventually results in a colony intended to keep an eye on New Spain and sell stuff like sea otter furs to China.

Could something like this be possible?

 

[TimTurner]

Maybe, say, Portuguese New England?

 

[Phalamus]

Maybe, say, Portuguese New England?

From the Pacific

 

[TimTurner]

From the Pacific

Oh.
Maybe they set themselves up in Alaska then.

 

[Diego]

Maybe they set themselves up in Alaska then.

Too much to the north, I think that Middle of Chile or California are the options on the table as they are the places direct under the tropics and the trade winds change directions in those regions. Chile is closer to Brazil and could be reinforced easier, but at the same time it is too close from Peru and there is heavy Spanish transit there, they will be found very soon, California is more remote.

 

[TimTurner]

Too much to the north, I think that Middle of Chile or California are the options on the table as they are the places direct under the tropics and the trade winds change directions in those regions. Chile is closer to Brazil and could be reinforced easier, but at the same time it is too close from Peru and there is heavy Spanish transit there, they will be found very soon, California is more remote.

I was thinking that if Portugal was pushing the boundaries of what was allowed under Tordesillas, then it would be primarily on basis of geographic location towards the edge of zones above all else. I.e. Chile would be harder to get away with given location then Alaska, which is farther from the core of Spain's designated area.

 

[Diego]

I was thinking that if Portugal was pushing the boundaries of what was allowed under Tordesillas, then it would be primarily on basis of geographic location towards the edge of zones above all else. I.e. Chile would be harder to get away with given location then Alaska, which is farther from the core of Spain's designated area.

Alaska is easier to hide from the Spanish, that is true, but is also easier to kill you before reaching it and quite hard to leave because of ice, storms and the wind blowing in the wrong direction, incidentaly it is quite harder to survive once you are there. Chile as I said is in a region too crowded with Spanish, but California has a more Mediterranean Climate and is easy to reach because the winds blow their way, at the same time the Spanish are mostly absent from the region.

 

[Phalamus]

Maybe they set themselves up in Alaska then.

I think that Middle of Chile or California are the options on the table as they are the places direct under the tropics and the trade winds change directions in those regions.
Chile is closer to Brazil and could be reinforced easier, but at the same time it is too close from Peru and there is heavy Spanish transit there, they will be found very soon, California is more remote.

Yeah, low Spanish presence is definitely a must here. It's not that they can't know about it. In fact, this colony would be intended partly as a diplomatic provocation, a payback for Spanish activities in Southeast Asia. But they definitely need to find it difficult to immediately expel the Portuguese.

We also need to think about economic opportunities, since any successful colony is going to need to have something worth getting. Specifically, what we're looking here (I think) is something that can be sold in China for a high price. It's hard to think of anything intended for European markets they could not get from a more easily accessible place, but on the other hand the Chinese market is so big that if there's even just one resource you can sell there, can pretty much single-handedly justify the maintenance of a colony (see the case of sandalwood in Timor).

In this sense, Alaska is actually interesting because it has a lot of furs. The Russians and the British later made quite a lot of money from trading furs in China, so I'm thinking that maybe the Portuguese could try their hand at pioneering this type of trade earlier. Now, it wouldn't actually be necessary to go that far north, because sea otters actually spread as far south as California.

So I guess pretty much any place in the West Coast of present-day US and Canada might be a viable place for a colony?

 

[TimTurner]

Yeah, low Spanish presence is definitely a must here. It's not that they can't know about it. In fact, this colony would be intended partly as a diplomatic provocation, a payback for Spanish activities in Southeast Asia. But they definitely need to find it difficult to immediately expel the Portuguese.

We also need to think about economic opportunities, since any successful colony is going to need to have something worth getting. Specifically, what we're looking here (I think) is something that can be sold in China for a high price. It's hard to think of anything intended for European markets they could not get from a more easily accessible place, but on the other hand the Chinese market is so big that if there's even just one resource you can sell there, can pretty much single-handedly justify the maintenance of a colony (see the case of sandalwood in Timor).

In this sense, Alaska is actually interesting because it has a lot of furs. The Russians and the British later made quite a lot of money from trading furs in China, so I'm thinking that maybe the Portuguese could try their hand at pioneering this type of trade earlier. Now, it wouldn't actually be necessary to go that far north, because sea otters actually spread as far south as California.

View attachment 887758

So I guess pretty much any place in the West Coast of present-day US and Canada might be a viable place for a colony?

Fascinating.
This does leave open the possibility of the Russians having influence on the situation regarding potential Portuguese Alaska...

 

[Phalamus]

This does leave open the possibility of the Russians having influence on the situation regarding potential Portuguese Alaska...

Hardly. By the time our POD takes places Russia doesn't even exist

 

[TimTurner]

Hardly. By the time our POD takes places Russia doesn't even exist

Well, yes. But the rise of Russia is still distinctly possible. Though by the time they are coming to areas like Chukot we might see a Portuguese atmosphere over the entire coastal area...

 

[Aluma]

but at the same time it is too close from Peru

To be fair by the time of the proposed POD(the 1520s) Spain the conquest of thr Inca had just begun and they were wrapping up Mexico after beating the Aztecs, and it'd take even longer to finish off Central America

If the portuguese strike from the Pacific I dont think they'd able to compete on Central America, of course, but they could stir trouble and whatever would happen if they showed up in Peru is anyone's guess

And I know, this is all a moot point since the point of the thread is a portuguese colony in North America's west coast, but I felt I needed to bring that up

 

[Viriato]

Logistically, establishing a Portuguese colony along the Pacific Coast of the Americas during the 16th century would be a nightmare. Even as late as the 19th century, the British and Russians had trouble in establishing formal control over the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. Even Spanish and later Mexican control over California remained weak as late as three centuries after discovery. For the Portuguese to claim land along the Pacific Coast of North America would have required a very lengthy voyage and likely remain nothing other than a tenuous claim at best.

The Spanish were able to control coastal Peru after taking control over the Inca Empire, with formal control being expanded as far south as the Chiloe Archipelago. However, a pattern of trade from Chile northwards to the Panama Isthmus was mostly funneled overland by mules to Cartagena, and from there by sea to Seville. Though a maritime trade did emerge, it was eclipsed by the overland route, one of the most obvious reasons was the strong Peru current. The Peru current allowed ships during the age of sail to send goods northwards to the Panama Isthmus and from there overland to Portobello, however traveling in the opposite direction became a much more ardous task. Even trade from the Plate River was officially to be sent to Cartagena, with Buenos Aires only being opened to direct trade with Spain in the late 18th century. Trade through the Straits of Magellan was considered very treacherous, and for the most part unused with no formal Spanish settlements in the region.

 

[Viriato]

After thinking about a plausible region for a Portuguese presence in the region, one of the only possibilities I could come up with was that perhaps once trade with Japan opens up, Portuguese sailors push further north and west, exploring the Kamachatka Peninsula, Alaska and what is today the Pacific Northwest and Alaska, perhaps establishing Catholic missions amongst the natives in these regions. It might be possible that a maritime fur trade is established centuries earlier with sea otter pelts being sold to China through Macao. Return voyages likely stop in Hawaii due to the currents as pictured below. If the Portuguese are ejected from Japan, perhaps they seek control over the Ryukyu, Izu or Bonin Islands.

 

[Aluma]

If the Portuguese are ejected from Japan,

You could also have a scenario where they dont colonize Japan outright but a friendly government takes over(like in a Shimabara Wins scenario, as unlikely that is) which would mean the portuguese could use it as a base in the same way Spain did Mexico
That would be the best outcome I believe if you want them to have a strong presence in Alaska

 

[Arkenfolm]

We also need to think about economic opportunities, since any successful colony is going to need to have something worth getting. Specifically, what we're looking here (I think) is something that can be sold in China for a high price

In addition to furs of course, jade was traded indigenously in southeastern Alaska and central/northern British Columbia, so all it takes is one enterprising crewman/merchant who notes that the natives seem to have that greenish stone the Chinese value.

 

[Phalamus]

For the Portuguese to claim land along the Pacific Coast of North America would have required a very lengthy voyage and likely remain nothing other than a tenuous claim at best.

It's surely a lengthy voyage, but doesn't Spanish the Spanish of the Philippines prove that trans-pacific colonization is at least possible if you work with oceanic gyres? It took about four months for a ship to get from Manila to Acapulco. It would presumably be similar from Macau to the main port of Portuguese America. It's a lot less time than it took for Indian trade with Europe.

With that said, yeah, I'm guessing it would be just a few outposts along the coast and remain like that for a very long time. Portugal would claim a large swathe of land, but actually control relatively little in the beginning. Still, if these outposts eventually turn into at least accidental settlements, or if the Portuguese decide to try to grow food locally to supply their activities, the temperate climates from British Colombia to California would likely make for a decently high population growth rate.

Trade through the Straits of Magellan was considered very treacherous, and for the most part unused with no formal Spanish settlements in the region.

Yet another reason to sail from East Asia 😛

After thinking about a plausible region for a Portuguese presence in the region, one of the only possibilities I could come up with was that perhaps once trade with Japan opens up, Portuguese sailors push further north and west, exploring the Kamachatka Peninsula, Alaska and what is today the Pacific Northwest and Alaska, perhaps establishing Catholic missions amongst the natives in these regions. It might be possible that a maritime fur trade is established centuries earlier with sea otter pelts being sold to China through Macao.

Yeah, fur trade is what I was thinking. But why not just bypass Kamachatka and go straight to North America. Alaska would be good of course, but both the Pacific Northwest and California are in a pretty good position to take advantage of the trade winds, and sea otters actually go as far south as Baja (though by that point the Spanish would obviously be a problem)

Return voyages likely stop in Hawaii due to the currents as pictured below. If the Portuguese are ejected from Japan, perhaps they seek control over the Ryukyu, Izu or Bonin Islands.

Portuguese Hawaii is a very interesting idea. Ryukyu too, and it actually ties in nicely with the secondary POD I proposed in the OP, seeing as the Tomé Pires embassy had plans to explore that archipelago. So maybe there could be a Portuguese presence there as early as the 1520s.

You could also have a scenario where they dont colonize Japan outright but a friendly government takes over(like in a Shimabara Wins scenario, as unlikely that is) which would mean the portuguese could use it as a base in the same way Spain did Mexico

A peasant rebellion in a minor domain in southern Kyushu is not going to take over the country, but I think that avoiding Portuguese expulsion from Japan is actually not that difficult. IOTL there were a series of unfortunate events like the Nossa Senhora da Graça incident and, indeed, the Shimabara rebellion that conspired to lead to that outcome ITTL. A different shogunate more interested in trade would probably do the trick, but even with the Tokugawa it might be possible (IOTL they were extremely reluctant to expel the Portuguese until the Dutch managed to convince them they could step in and replace them)

 

[kasumigenx]

I think Portugal could have had the Philippines if Don Carlos and Felipe II had a good relationship which means Portugal would have more resources geographically but they would be a crown of Spain.
Don Carlos was in line to the Portuguese throne after Sebastian.

 

[Viriato]

Yeah, fur trade is what I was thinking. But why not just bypass Kamachatka and go straight to North America. Alaska would be good of course, but both the Pacific Northwest and California are in a pretty good position to take advantage of the trade winds, and sea otters actually go as far south as Baja (though by that point the Spanish would obviously be a problem)

North America is much further away from Macau, particularly during the age of sail, meaning that voyages there would be more dangerous, and far costlier than those to Hokkaido, the Kuril Islands and even the Kamchatka Peninsula. The early otter pelt trade would be centered around Hokkaido and the Kuril Islands, only expanding northward and westward once over hunting exhausts supplies. At some point, scarcity would expand from the Kamchatka Peninsula and from there to the Aleutian Islands to Alaska and down the coast of present-day British Columbia. Looking at the sailing times, a Portuguese carrack would require around 35 to 45 days to sail from Macau to the Kuril Islands, whereas sailing to the Aleutians would require nearly double the sailing time. The Kuril Islands might be the objective of early Portuguese colonisation by fur traders as a springboard to North America.