João I, Duke of Bragança accepts the proposal of Felipe II in 1580

[The Gybson Boy]

According to the Wiki of João I, Duke of Bragança:
"After the disaster of the Battle of Ksar El Kebir, where heirless King Sebastian of Portugal died, the aged Cardinal Henry of Portugal had become King. Because Henry was old and was not allowed to have legitimate children, a dynastical crisis occurred even before the death of the Cardinal. The Duke of Braganza supported his wife's claim to the throne (she was a granddaughter of King Manuel I). Philip II of Spain (another grandson of Manuel I and also claimant to the throne), tried to bribe him to abandon his wife's pretensions, offering him the Vice-Kingdom of Brazil, the post of Grand-Master of the Order of Christ, a license to send a personal ship to India every year, and the marriage of his eldest son Teodósio of Braganza to one of his daughters (either Isabella Clara Eugenia or Catherine Michaela). The Duke of Braganza, influenced by his wife, refused the proposal"
What would have happened, however, if João I had accepted Felipe II's proposal? The Braganças abandon their claims to the throne and receive the Hereditary Viceroyalty of Brazil, the position of Grand Master of the Order of Christ, a license to send a personal ship to India every year and the wedding of their eldest son, Teodósio de Bragança, with one of his daughters (either Isabella Clara Eugénia or Catarina Michaela). How would this influence things? considering that Theodosius marries one of Felipe II's daughters, what would that change? In the case of the Braganças receiving the Viceroyalty of Brazil, would they move to Brazil or send a representative while they govern in Portugal?

 

[Coluber]

The scenario you're painting here seems to suggest an earlier independent Brazil, but Portugal is doomed to be a part of Spain forever. Which means that according to that stupid American graph, I would no longer be white, but hispanic.
Anyhoo, in this scenario, I can see Bragança Brazil go to war with Spain over at least the territories of Angola. But everything else goes to Spain. If the Dutch don't get their hands on it first (yeah, I don't see the Dutch making any inroads into Brazil in this timeline - maybe Argentina). Regarding the East, Spain has the Philipines, but also Goa and Malacca (which might be lost to the Dutch), but I still don't see them expanding beyond that. Maybe Ceylon is definitively conquered. Who knows?

 

[The Gybson Boy]

The scenario you're painting here seems to suggest an earlier independent Brazil,

At least at the end of the 16th century and beginning of the 17th century, it would be more like Brazil having permanent hereditary rulers but it would still be a colony of Portugal/Spain

 

[Dragonboy]

At least at the end of the 16th century and beginning of the 17th century, it would be more like Brazil having permanent hereditary rulers but it would still be a colony of Portugal/Spain

And eventually they would be independent.

 

[The Gybson Boy]

@John I of Brazil @unprincipled peter @Guilherme Loureiro @nandalf @ByzantineCaesar @Viriato @Lusitania @RedAquilla @Aluma

 

[Aluma]

At least at the end of the 16th century and beginning of the 17th century, it would be more like Brazil having permanent hereditary rulers but it would still be a colony of Portugal/Spain

Kind of, with the Braganzas marrying into the spanish royal family(though not the heir) this would make the Vice-Royalty as independent as it gets without a full blown break up, at that point this would be in practice a "United Kingdom of Brazil and Spain" plus the rest of the Spanish Empire, but nominally it still would be a colony

 

[Aluma]

First off
Fantastic scenario, and sorry I only saw my tag here now
Second, this would be...interesting
I feel like John's marriage may be doomed here, whats with ignoring his wife's claim and giving their country to Spain in a silver plater, and the one ship to India feels more like a a restriction than a benefit, it means their trade would still be regulated by Spain within a gilded cage
So yeah I dont think that would be the best outcome for him
Still, with a royal family in Brazil centuries before OTL and the country being in a quasi-independent state much earlier I could see it having a meteoric rise like that of the north american nations if things do indeed go well

 

[The Gybson Boy]

Kind of, with the Braganzas marrying into the spanish royal family(though not the heir) this would make the Vice-Royalty as independent as it gets without a full blown break up, at that point this would be in practice a "United Kingdom of Brazil and Spain" plus the rest of the Spanish Empire, but nominally it still would be a colony

Technically Brazil would still have to pay tribute to Spain and most of the money generated by the sale of Brazilian products would go to Madrid, this is because sugar cane is still the main Brazilian product, when gold is discovered there would certainly be major problems between the Brazilian government wants to keep the gold and Spain wants its 20%, the fifth would really come from hell, if @Aluma and other Brazilians understand me

I feel like John's marriage may be doomed here, whats with ignoring his wife's claim and giving their country to Spain in a silver plater

I can very well see João moving to Brazil alone with his children while Catarina stays in Portugal bitter

 

[Dragonboy]

I can very well see João moving to Brazil alone with his children while Catarina stays in Portugal bitter

Yep, the opportunity is a good one! And so it begins the process of a peacufully independent brazil

 

[Aluma]

Technically Brazil would still have to pay tribute to Spain and most of the money generated by the sale of Brazilian products would go to Madrid, this is because sugar cane is still the main Brazilian product, when gold is discovered there would certainly be major problems between the Brazilian government wants to keep the gold and Spain wants its 20%, the fifth would really come from hell, if @Aluma and other Brazilians understand me

Indeed, as said gilded cage applies here

However this would be much less due to Brazil's lack of self government(because now they have one, its the Braganzas) and more so that they're still to weak to not pay tribute to one of the great european powers as well as Spain only allowing them this much freedom at this cost

If Brazil becomes strong enough in the medium long term I could see them refusing to pay the tribute however, though wheter they go for full independence or just invent a excuse to keep avoiding paying their taxes will depend on how strong Spain is by then and if the Braganzas can figure a way to get away with it or not

 

[Phalamus]

I assume that this "viceroy" position would be akin to the viceroy of India, meaning that it would not be hereditary and João would be unlikely to even hold it for more than a few years. IOTL Brazil never had a viceroy, only a governor-general, but in the Portuguese empire the distinction between the two terms was pretty much just one of prestige. I don't see him being super interested, to be honest, but if he does accept the position, then he spends a brief stint in Brazil and then returns home.

Also, the Braganza did end up renouncing the claim IOTL, so I don't really see this changing much. They got a pretty good deal out of Philip (who essentially restored all the aristocratic privileges they had lost a century earlier under John II) and married pretty high into the Spanish nobility. None of that prevented them from seizing the throne when the time was right

 

[Aluma]

I assume that this "viceroy" position would be akin to the viceroy of India

It can diverge rather wildly
Like it could vary from hereditary(like the accurately named Capitanias Hereditárias) to, well, what you described
Dunno which one was being proposed to him though

 

[Phalamus]

It can diverge rather wildly
Like it could vary from hereditary(like the accurately named Capitanias Hereditárias) to, well, what you described
Dunno which one was being proposed to him though

An hereditary title over the entire colony would be unthinkable imo. Not only it's too big a prize for any noble house (let alone one with a claim on the crown), it would be extremely unpopular in Portugal as well (João I of Braganza wasn't very well liked by the way, that was one of the reasons why his wife failed)

 

[kasumigenx]

That is more suitable for the Crato Family.

 

[Aluma]

An hereditary title over the entire colony would be unthinkable imo. Not only it's too big a prize for any noble house (let alone one with a claim on the crown),

Oh I agree
I think that only could happen if the spanish got desperate and thought they might actually lose the Portuguese Empire to the Braganzas regardless, though then its a question of why John would accept

João I of Braganza wasn't very well liked by the way,

You know, that could actually be the motivation
If you countrymen hate you its unlikely they'll make for good subjects, and after you've made your claim to the crown you better be as far away from Spain as possible because they will kill you if you're still there

 

[Diego]

If that proposal was really made I doubt that Felipe would offer just a post of Governor General or Viceroy for life for the duke, just the position of Constable of Portugal is much more prestigious than that. I think that Felipe would really offer an hereditary fief in Brazil, and probably a very big one, but also not the entirety of the Portuguese America. In my opinion something like the territory of the capitaincies of Ilheus, Espirito Santo and Porto Seguro together would be more reasonable and still very huge.

How would this influence things?

If the Bragança Family doesn't bankrupt itself trying to develop Brazil they end up in an even better position to lead the Portuguese Restoration if that still happens.

In the case of the Braganças receiving the Viceroyalty of Brazil, would they move to Brazil or send a representative while they govern in Portugal?

They would never move to Brazil, the duchy of Bragança is their main powerbase, the title of Constable is their most prestigious post, and Brazil was mostly a giant mix of jungle, forests and savana with a couple of plantations and some towns scattered around at this point.

 

[unprincipled peter]

, a license to send a personal ship to India every year

considering the meagre size (economy) of Brazil at the time, I would guess this is a Portuguese based trade perk for the Duke's personal gain. The Duke and his wife aren't leaving Portugal (sans being exiled), which is where they are based. Brazil is sugar plantation deep in the heart of nowhere. I'm thinking this ship trades from Portugal.

We probably need his wife to realize the hopelessness of her cause, and accept the bribe.

The Braganzas will be dependent on Portuguese (currently in personal union with Spain) support to maintain physical possession of Brazil. France has covetous eyes on it. So they'll basically be held hostage to the King of Spain's ruling policies. It'll be a protectorate in servitude to Portugal/Spain. Over time, Joao and his heirs can insert themselves into the colony and gain more control. When the gold rush starts, whenever that may be (OTL a century away), they're going to be an ascending power/threat, the Braganzas need to have enough control to avoid being trampled by the powers of Iberia. This is where TTL South America can have a major divergence, with the Braganzas utilizing the resources to develop Brazil.