If they will not meet us on the open sea (a Trent TL)

[Saphroneth]

(I wonder whether HMS Warrior will still end up as a museum ship in Portsmouth ITTL - maybe yes, as she's probably more famous than OTL.)

Tricky one, in all honesty. Though I did have a couple of snippets from the far future show up in the Alternate Warships thread, and one of them had both Warrior and Aetna as museum ships - Warrior in the UK, Aetna in Canada. Sadly both too old to risk sailing across the Atlantic to meet up again.

 

[FriendlyGhost]

Tricky one, in all honesty

I wasn't actually expecting you to answer this - it's way too far in the future ITTL to know!

 

[Saphroneth]

I wasn't actually expecting you to answer this - it's way too far in the future ITTL to know!

Warrior's a beautiful ship, as significant as Dreadnought in a lot of ways, and prime museum ship material. Absent her running aground or being sunk:
She becomes no longer front line material in the early 1870s, stays in reserve or as guardship for the next few decades (this is basically inevitable) and then gets downgraded further.
As a particularly large ship, she's likely worth more as a store ship or otherwise than going to the breakers, especially if she remains in use up to the point that a ship like Dreadnought is built (since then scrapping PDNs is easier). OTL she was used as an oil hulk for decades, and then was finally converted into a museum ship.
The main risks she has are being scrapped and some kind of major war before about 1900 (major enough she's used in or near the front line as an armoured cruiser). If those don't happen, then she makes it through - so it's not impossible by any means.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Tricky one, in all honesty. Though I did have a couple of snippets from the far future show up in the Alternate Warships thread, and one of them had both Warrior and Aetna as museum ships - Warrior in the UK, Aetna in Canada. Sadly both too old to risk sailing across the Atlantic to meet up again.

Aetna a museum ship in Canada? Now there's a clever idea for sure.

 

[edgeworthy]

Aetna a museum ship in Canada? Now there's a clever idea for sure.

I would have thought that HMS Terror, being the Guardship at Bermuda and likely to be the first RN Ironclad into action, would be a more suitable museum ship in Canada.
(Or possibly Bermuda as a tourist attraction)
And the name sounds just a bit cooler.

 

[Saphroneth]

I would have thought that HMS Terror, being the Guardship at Bermuda and likely to be the first RN Ironclad into action, would be a more suitable museum ship in Canada.
(Or possibly Bermuda as a tourist attraction)
And the name sounds just a bit cooler.

Ah, there is a logic to it - you see, Aetna can fit down the Welland canal and as such would be the first ironclad on the Great Lakes. (Indeed, that would probably happen before Defence battles Galena.)

 

[FriendlyGhost]

I would have thought that HMS Terror, being the Guardship at Bermuda and likely to be the first RN Ironclad into action, would be a more suitable museum ship in Canada. And the name sounds just a bit cooler.

Now there's a terrifying thought.
(runs away from the hail of rotten tomatoes...)

 

[Saphroneth]

(mild fill-in-gaps step one)

26 Mar
HMS Aetna - the only British ironclad small enough to fit through the Welland Canal - begins transit of the St Lawrence, sailing up as far as the ice permits... though this turns out not to be far enough to justify waiting. She has been rearmed again since her attack on Boston, and now sports a mix of 110-lbers and 68-lbers.
This is at least a month ahead of any potential British ironclad reinforcement from new-build ships, and is well publicized in both Upper and Lower Canada. The fear of invasion in the Canadian provinces has outstripped the reality, so Aetna is seen as a relief to a beleaguered garrison more than anything.



28 Mar
The balloon Union launches a sally from Dover, Delaware, aimed at the ships blockading the Delaware River. There is light cloud and some rain, and the Union finds it hard going while weighed down with half a dozen 32-lb solid shot as well as the pilot (Dickinson); steering is also a major problem, as the balloon is operating without a tether.
Coming in at around 400 feet, the balloon is well above the height of the British ships, and also manages to avoid any shellfire (though the shots crest high enough to hit the balloon, their fuzes are not timed and they do not impact and burst). Some rifle fire is also encountered, which holes the Union and makes Dickinson fear for his safety, and he drops all six shot over the side in a hurry as he passes near the British fleet.
While his main target was the Shannon, none of the cannonballs hit her. One comes close to Diadem, and a gunboat is holed with a crunch when a particularly lucky shot drop comes down over her bow. The resultant hole is small, though requires more work than usual as it is so deep in the hull.
Union gains height after the drop, but further rifle volleys from the small-arms men on board Shannon and Donegal cause progressive leakage which means the balloon crashes four miles from the shore, roughly west of Cape May Courthouse. Dickinson is captured.




(I have no idea if what I've described would even work that well, it's a crazy idea... incidentally, those balloons had hydrogen! One hot hit and boom.)

 

[RodentRevolution]

(I have no idea if what I've described would even work that well, it's a crazy idea... incidentally, those balloons had hydrogen! One hot hit and boom.)

To be fair that is only a problem if the balloon itself catches fire as the ignition source needs to be at a point that oxygen and hydrogen can interact.

 

[Saphroneth]

To be fair that is only a problem if the balloon itself catches fire as the ignition source needs to be at a point that oxygen and hydrogen can interact.

True - though I imagine a shellburst is going to have the earlier fragments riddle the balloon and the later ones enter the mixed area.

 

[RodentRevolution]

True - though I imagine a shellburst is going to have the earlier fragments riddle the balloon and the later ones enter the mixed area.

Well don't look at me to try this out in any era with better fused shells, enough rodents have given their lives for science.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Two small notes: The First is that I think you meant to write permits when you wrote persists.

The Second is that you may want to push the Aetna's transit up the canals until April 16th, as the river was iced over until then from the sea.

As a final note the balloon part was clever, though I think you've illustrated some of the problems with the idea of 19th century air raids

 

[Saphroneth]

I was under the impression you could get a little upriver before April 16; I will move it later if not.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

I was under the impression you could get a little upriver before April 16; I will move it later if not.

Currently on my phone so can't upload the source I used but I can post a link later. But it seems average opening of navigation was late April early May.

 

[Saphroneth]

30 Mar

HMS Sagittarius commissions. The first of the twelve "90 day" ironclads, she completed ahead of schedule by two weeks due to sterling work by Laird (the builders).
Her armour is less effective than that of Warrior as the plates were not held to the same high peacetime standards, and in addition is a little thinner - four inches of rolled wrought iron with wooden backing.
Displacing less than 1,000 tons, she is emphatically not a ship built for the open sea - instead, she is a riverine ironclad though built with one mast for better fuel consumption, and has a top speed under steam of a paltry six knots.
She will be caulked up and towed across the Atlantic, and her guns (four 68-lber and four 110-lber) will be carried in the towing ship. Of interest is that she is pierced for twelve guns (six ports each side) and that with appropriate counterballasting will be able to fire a six-gun broadside. She is able to transit the Welland canal fully loaded.



31 Mar

Battle of Leesburg. McClellan's army engages Johnston's army outside the city, then falls back when the left wing of the Army of Northern Virginia attempts a turning movement against his flank. McClellan explains his movement by stating that losing the ability to fall back on the city would lead to the destruction of his army; however, this retreat leaves White's Ford in Confederate hands and gives the Confederacy a secure crossing of the Potomac forty miles from Washington. McClellan did demolish Kephart's Bridge before evacuating the area.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

Thanks Saphroneth,

A very interesting TL that shows how Britain could play to its strengths to seek A Short, Victorious, War against the US in 1861-2. Rather than the slugfest depicted in BROS where Britain tried to intervene in a continental land war and suffered in a prolonged contest. I suppose much would depend on whether the RN could act so quickly and decisively to blockade Union ports and destroy coastal forts before they're fully manned and armed.

No doubt we will hear from TFSmith soon enough as to why everything you've written is impossible. Perhaps given telepathy Lincoln will know of the British intent to DOW before news reaches him and has all forts armed and provisioned just in time. Plus an extra fleet of ironclads built and manned and an army that will invade Canada and brush aside the feeble militia and reinforcements. More realistically, perhaps they will simply do even more "just in case" build-up than you allow and so blunt some at least of the RN attacks.

To be a bit more serious, I'm pretty sure that Britain (or even Britain or France together) wouldn't have the army and logistical capability to invade and occupy the whole US. That wouldn't be Britain's aim of course in this scenario or indeed other Trent-based Anglo-US war scenarios. IF it did develop into such an existentialist fight for the US, I'm sure the US could defeat these invasion attempts. But a blockade and raids on ports that damages trade and investment seem a bit less likely to trigger a Total War mobilisation. Clearly many 21st century US citizens view with horror the idea of making a (humiliating?) peace deal to avoid a very long and extensive conflict. But how would the average US citizen of 1862 react? Or the influential East Coast property owning classes?

Hmm, interesting dilemma for Lincoln. I'm sure that a war with the British Empire would stir American patriotism and get Irish immigrants queuing to join up. But since there was a Peace Party even during the Civil War that would have been happy enough to allow secession, could Lincoln hold to war if it meant significant economic disruption and less success against the Rebels?

 

[Count Valerian]

TFSmith is banned for some reason.

 

[Saphroneth]

To address those in order.

Firstly, the fort armament is pretty much OTL if not accelerated. For Fort Monroe and Fort Delaware I used historical; for the others I assumed they were fully supplied with enough guns to fill all their gun circles (casemate and barbette). This may actually be more spare naval guns than the Union had, I was being rather generous here!
As for the ironclads, I had the Union start them pretty much immediately. Same for the militia - it's just that the Union was working at maximum rate OTL in early 1862, to the point that they were actually asking for people to stop sending regiments because they didn't have the weapons to arm them even going to muskets.
The Union's fleet can't be meaningfully expanded in two months. Hence why I have them fighting with what they've got.

The main British aim here is to basically get an apology, and ideally some kind of indemnity - certainly not to occupy the US. They're not even helping the CSA directly, though they're certainly benefiting it massively.

TFSmith is banned for some reason.

The proximate cause of his banning was accusing me of subscribing to the Black Confederate Soldiers myth. The main cause was that he'd got something like ten kicks or warnings in public and several more in private; he finally ran out of second chances.
I can't say I'm upset, though I'm not especially happy either. Maybe the right word is relief.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

TFSmith is banned for some reason.

Thanks - a pity as I did enjoy his pieces even though i often wanted to disagree. Still, it accounts for his absence here.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

To address those in order.

Firstly, the fort armament is pretty much OTL if not accelerated. For Fort Monroe and Fort Delaware I used historical; for the others I assumed they were fully supplied with enough guns to fill all their gun circles (casemate and barbette). This may actually be more spare naval guns than the Union had, I was being rather generous here!
As for the ironclads, I had the Union start them pretty much immediately. Same for the militia - it's just that the Union was working at maximum rate OTL in early 1862, to the point that they were actually asking for people to stop sending regiments because they didn't have the weapons to arm them even going to muskets.
The Union's fleet can't be meaningfully expanded in two months. Hence why I have them fighting with what they've got.

The main British aim here is to basically get an apology, and ideally some kind of indemnity - certainly not to occupy the US. They're not even helping the CSA directly, though they're certainly benefiting it massively.


The proximate cause of his banning was accusing me of subscribing to the Black Confederate Soldiers myth. The main cause was that he'd got something like ten kicks or warnings in public and several more in private; he finally ran out of second chances.
I can't say I'm upset, though I'm not especially happy either. Maybe the right word is relief.

Thanks for the response. I agree with your reasoning now and it is pretty much what i would have expected to happen had Britain responded quickly and competently. Neither are a given but feasible and plausible.

Of course, IF Lincoln could rally popular support to "fight on", is it possible that the US could industrialise out of reach of the RN and develop armies capable of retaking the ports and clearing British troops from its territory? Big IF of course. Maybe a "War of Reunion" later is more likely after a decade or so, with Britain again neutral.

Pity about TFSmith's behaviour.