Great Britain defeats the Continental Congress in the Northeast, loses elsewhere

PoD wherever works. Fighting breaks out in Massachusetts and the Thirteen Colonies declare independence about the next year. Great Britain's expeditionary force succeeds in defeating militias and driving back the Continental Army in New York and the Mid-Atlantic, but asymmetrical warfare drags on in the South and/or West, the idea of independence having proved resilient even after its apparent defeat in the Northeast. The Continental Congress operates in exile--or has been replaced after the capture and/or martyrdom of some or all of its original members. Bled white by a quagmire and increasingly bold pressures from rival great powers sensing weakness, Britain decides to cut its losses and grant a negotiated independence to the colonies and territories it was unable to successfully control.

What kind of settlement? What effects on turn-of-the-19th North America and the wider world? What is the nature of the republics and dominions which are created?
 
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