Germany's Peaceful Bid for Power: Thoughts on MittelAfrika

[Rothbardian21]

In an alternate timeline either just prior to July 1914 or after the Great War (perhaps a shorter Great War, e.g. no Ottoman entry, more Balkan states join, or peace deal), what would be Belgium's likely price to sell the Congo to Germany? Assuming a cooperative Britain, would the inclusion of a colony like Ghana as compensation make a difference to Belgium? What about offering Brussels tariff-free access to the German market, or a consolidated German-Austro-Hungarian market?

There's so many possibilities for Berlin's future here, so incredibly interesting to think where Germany could have ended up had it simply continued to focus on economic influence within Europe, while continuing to hone any erstwhile imperial ambition on the expansion of a 'central african' empire via peaceful means, & having more faith in the country's ability to present a strong front to Russia for the long-term, rather than succumbing to geopolitical paranoia.

 

[Michel Van]

One possibly is to buy the Free State of Congo from Leopold II
it was PRIVATE property own by Leopold II until 1908 the Belgium Government has to intervene and make it a Belgium colony.
do insane atrocities committed by private administrator-general toward locals

Leopold II. was not happy about this and you have nice POD were he could sell Congo other European Power

But this would let to new problems, the french Republic would resist this purchase by Germans
I think they would even invade Free State of Congo from french Congo, to prevent it falls in Germans hand
follow declaration of War by German Empire to French Republic

That was reason why Leopold II could get Congo in 1884 Berlin Africa conference, preventing War in Europa over colonies !

 

[Riain]

In 1913 Britain and Germany were colluding between themselves to take over Portugal's Empire, I think the trigger point was Portugal defaulting on something or other.

 

[Dorknought]

The Anglo-German proposal to divide up Portuguese Imperial possessions was only an understanding that IF, Portugal needed a foreign loan and IF they couldn't repay then GB and Germany COULD/MAYBE divide parts of Portugal's African Empire along pre-arranged lines.

Portugal is also GB's only other alliance partner along side Japan. Portugal occupies a strategic position for GB and needs to be friendly and kept out other European Great Powers arragements. What the Germans wanted was an opportunity to create a crisis and leverage Portugal out of some of it's portfolio. Obviously GB would resist this and Portugal would understand that it would have GB's support. Germany was resisting in signing, she didn't want to provide loans that the Portuguese would use to build ships in Britain. As far as needs go, Republican Portugal would sell it's empire to secure it's homeland against an unfriendly Royalist Spain.

 

[Blaze]

The Anglo-German proposal to divide up Portuguese Imperial possessions was only an understanding that IF, Portugal needed a foreign loan and IF they couldn't repay then GB and Germany COULD/MAYBE divide parts of Portugal's African Empire along pre-arranged lines.

Portugal is also GB's only other alliance partner along side Japan. Portugal occupies a strategic position for GB and needs to be friendly and kept out other European Great Powers arragements. What the Germans wanted was an opportunity to create a crisis and leverage Portugal out of some of it's portfolio. Obviously GB would resist this and Portugal would understand that it would have GB's support. Germany was resisting in signing, she didn't want to provide loans that the Portuguese would use to build ships in Britain. As far as needs go, Republican Portugal would sell it's empire to secure it's homeland against an unfriendly Royalist Spain.

Didn´t stopped the british from threatening war in 1890 over the territories between Angola and Mozambique

 

[Dorknought]

Didn´t stopped the british from threatening war in 1890 over the territories between Angola and Mozambique

and its a quarter of a century later - the world had changed.

 

[I want to learn]

Portugal is also GB's only other alliance partner along side Japan

I have somehow formed the impression the treaty of windsor was more of a historical novelty that Winston Churchill pulled out of his ass for the PR when the Allies set up to use the Azores for airbases than a functional alliance. I mean like every small European state Portugal declared neutrality at the beginning of WW2.

 

[Blaze]

and its a quarter of a century later - the world had changed.

Quarter century later they were discussing partioning portuguese colonies with Germany.

For the record, i don´t think they would have done, tough it would depend on the PM at the time. But it would be more because of fear of Germany, not because an alliance with a third rate power.

 

[Blaze]

I have somehow formed the impression the treaty of windsor was more of a historical novelty that Winston Churchill pulled out of his ass for the PR when the Allies set up to use the Azores for airbases than a functional alliance. I mean like every small European state Portugal declared neutrality at the beginning of WW2.

Nah, oldest alliance in the world still in force, but it does not trigger unless the other country invokes aid.

 

[tonycat77]

If they get it GB and France will be propping up rebellions all around.
Will be a proto-vietnam, no profit, no glory, only a place to send decrepit generals and exile people you don't want around in your cabinet.
No pre-existing governments to set up a puppet state like India, you'd need manpower to do everything, from the oppressing to the red tape.

 

[anotherlurker]

If they get it GB and France will be propping up rebellions all around.
Will be a proto-vietnam, no profit, no glory, only a place to send decrepit generals and exile people you don't want around in your cabinet.
No pre-existing governments to set up a puppet state like India, you'd need manpower to do everything, from the oppressing to the red tape.

That would set a bad precendent, the unwritten agreement among all colonial powers was to not let something like this happen because it invites all others to give you the same treatment and may lead to a haitian situation, which was still what every white colonialist had nightmares over when asleep.

 

[tonycat77]

That would set a bad precendent, the unwritten agreement among all colonial powers was to not let something like this happen because it invites all others to give you the same treatment and may lead to a haitian situation, which was still what every white colonialist had nightmares over when asleep.

I understand, but France and the UK would be desperate to undermine Germany.

 

[TanTheManJam]

Quarter century later they were discussing partioning portuguese colonies with Germany.

For the record, i don´t think they would have done, tough it would depend on the PM at the time. But it would be more because of fear of Germany, not because an alliance with a third rate power.

Hell I think they were considering giving Angola to Weimar Germany.

 

[Rothbardian21]

One possibly is to buy the Free State of Congo from Leopold II
it was PRIVATE property own by Leopold II until 1908 the Belgium Government has to intervene and make it a Belgium colony.
do insane atrocities committed by private administrator-general toward locals

Leopold II. was not happy about this and you have nice POD were he could sell Congo other European Power

But this would let to new problems, the french Republic would resist this purchase by Germans
I think they would even invade Free State of Congo from french Congo, to prevent it falls in Germans hand
follow declaration of War by German Empire to French Republic

That was reason why Leopold II could get Congo in 1884 Berlin Africa conference, preventing War in Europa over colonies !

Certainly an interesting scenario to imagine. If the French could somehow be satiated or maybe compensated elsewhere, I wonder if the outrage at the Congo atrocities becoming public, would be able to sort of push a consortium of international opinion to pressure Belgium. No doubt Germany would probably need to achieve better relations with Britain for such a thing to happen all the way back in 1904.

 

[Rothbardian21]

In 1913 Britain and Germany were colluding between themselves to take over Portugal's Empire, I think the trigger point was Portugal defaulting on something or other.

Yea I remember reading about this. It hadn't achieved any real breakthroughs, but one gets the sense its just the start of years more effort on Germany's part. If Germany acquired the Congo, it seems likely they would also set their sights on Angola.

 

[Rothbardian21]

The Anglo-German proposal to divide up Portuguese Imperial possessions was only an understanding that IF, Portugal needed a foreign loan and IF they couldn't repay then GB and Germany COULD/MAYBE divide parts of Portugal's African Empire along pre-arranged lines.

Portugal is also GB's only other alliance partner along side Japan. Portugal occupies a strategic position for GB and needs to be friendly and kept out other European Great Powers arragements. What the Germans wanted was an opportunity to create a crisis and leverage Portugal out of some of it's portfolio. Obviously GB would resist this and Portugal would understand that it would have GB's support. Germany was resisting in signing, she didn't want to provide loans that the Portuguese would use to build ships in Britain. As far as needs go, Republican Portugal would sell it's empire to secure it's homeland against an unfriendly Royalist Spain.

Do we have any indication on the possible $/£ price of Angola?

 

[Rothbardian21]

I understand, but France and the UK would be desperate to undermine Germany.

In one of the potential scenarios, could be part of a Germany who is already being pretty heavily weakened following a loss in the war (whether a more rapid loss, or along the lines of OTL), with Germany being allowed to use part of the overall indemnity money to purchase the Congo from Belgium. In other words kind of a consolation prize to better facilitate European exchanges of territory, and from a British perspective perhaps.....to keep Germany invested in the Imperial arena so as to prevent Berlin's focus shifting exclusively to Europe. A Germany focused only on Europe ofc can lead to projects Continental in their scope, repeating the events of our timeline whereby France & Germany come closer together in pursuit of joint-European objectives.

 

[Rothbardian21]

Hell I think they were considering giving Angola to Weimar Germany.

That would be interesting reading. Were there any mentions as to the possible sale price?

 

[Michel Van]

I wonder if the outrage at the Congo atrocities becoming public, would be able to sort of push a consortium of international opinion to pressure Belgium.

it was huge scandal as became public in 1905, that was reason for Belgium Government to Nationalised the Congo Free State company in 1908
Even on Funeral of Leopold II in 1912, people boo and cursed the dead king and high rang europeans kings were absent...

it was British Empire who made public, the insane atrocities committed by Congo private administration, run by British citizen...

 

[TanTheManJam]

That would be interesting reading. Were there any mentions as to the possible sale price?

I think it was just giving it, not really buying