Exocet - the Effects of a different Falklands
- Thread starter Nevran
- Start date
It's still Queen Elizabeth II. Charles is still the Prince of Wales, and he's married to Camilla.
Andrew (TTL William) is the second-in-line and William (TTL Harry) is the third-in-line. Diana is still alive too, a thorn in Charles' side and closer to William then Henry, leading to endless stories about the rift/dividing line between the family.
Actually no. South Africa hosts the Olympics in 2004, so, like Brazil, it has the infrastructure in place to make a more credible bid and win the games. (Even if with FIFA, a country's suitability for hosting ranks low in terms of bid success).
I might make a box for it, but I'm not sure about who'd had a strong team back then, i.e. who'd win.
Sorry for the delay as well in updating, I've sort of put the TL on a bit of a hiatus for a while to regain a bit of steam. I will come back to it and I've got some good stuff lined up.
I doubt it was affected in any meaningful way by the butterflies. Maybe Poland.
Please do NOT do this. If you want to ask the author something use the PM system. Otherwise just wait see, like everyone else.
Poland seems much more ripe for substantial changes ITTL considering Lebed’s rise to power
Hi, I could potentially plan a bit of an update on it in the future, once I get back to this.
I covered a bit for Poland in the Crimean Crisis update, i.e. PiS does a lot better a lot sooner. It probably makes the EU integration a lot harder for both parties, and probably makes calls for an EU/ joint-European army/defense force louder earlier (and probably as the next big reform after the failure of the EU constitution, rather than the Lisbon Treaty).
NATO is also more relevant earlier on again, so there's probably really friendly US-Poland relations too. I'd imagine President Gingrich would be beloved by Poland and the PiS.
Just as an update as well for the future of Exocet, I will come back to this, probably once I've got Who Governs? done.
Nice play by Douglas Alexander changing his party affiliation while still being on the Labour ballot,to siphon votes away from SNP. Smart.A.N. Two updates in basically two days, almost like the slightly manic start to this TL in terms of updates
Douglas Alexander, in a similar way as Roseanna Cunningham had done, presented himself and his government as a counterpoint to the Conservative Westminster government. As the Patten Ministry introduced immigration restrictions and reduced and reorganised welfare, Alexander increased welfare benefits to Scots and started a government PR campaign showing Scotland to be an open and inclusive nation. Scotland, under Alexander, truly embraced her joint British-Scottish-European identity, with the adoption of the ecu and the end of the economic recession caused by its introduction. Alexander would often been seen with three flags behind him during official speeches and mandated that other parts of the Scottish government should similarly display the Scottish, British and European Union flag during official events. Whilst Alexander’s government would be reliant of good PR and spin tactics to win popularity, it was these spin tactics which kept Alexander popular with Scots.
As part of this, and due to his government’s successes, faced a whispering campaign from both within his own ranks and from the media that he was planning to ditch Scotland and seek to move to the national Labour Party, for a comfy and prominent role in Boateng’s Shadow Cabinet. When it was clear there would be no early election before 2007, Alexander committed fully to his role in Holyrood. And so, with Alexander entering his fourth year as first minister, his attention now fully on Holyrood gave Scottish Labour a boost before the election. As such Scottish Labour and Alexander felt confident before the election.
The SNP, meanwhile, was far less confident. With Roseanna Cunningham resigning as leader of the SNP in 2006 after an internal party coup against her stance on gay adoption, the party went into the election led by John Swinney. Swinney, a moderate in the party, offered a “new National” message, to minimal political success. De-emphasising independence, focusing on constitutional reforms should’ve seen nationalists ditch the SNP wholes. However, nationalist were largely behind the SNP by 2007, even though this was due more to the SSP’s weakness rather than a change in the agenda of hardcore nationalist. The collapse of the Scottish Socialist Party, with both its leaders (Sheridan and Salmond) being accused of inappropriate behaviour towards women, changed the electoral calculus of the upcoming election.
The Conservatives, starting from an admittedly low bar from the drubbing in 2003 and led by Annabel Goldie, failed to make any further ground. The informal supply and confidence deal negotiated at the start of 2003 continued with the Scottish Conservatives offering case-by-case support, allowing Alexander to continue in office without needing nationalist support. Goldie and many prominent Tories knew that ditching this agreement would lead to deadlock. With the nationalists being unable to secure a majority as well, a double negative majority would come about if confidence was withdrawn, which would only be broken by an early election. Considering the dismal state of the Scottish Conservatives (and the wider Conservative Party) during this parliament, the Conservative were forced to stick to the devil they knew.
The election campaign was fought based on the changes introduced to welfare and plans to reform education. The SNP, in the Cunningham government of 1999-2003, had fought for the Scotland Act 2002, which gave the Scottish government power to introduce such reforms. Trying to take credit for the expanded debate, the SNP made the case that they would be better able to represent Scotland on a national level and would be able to secure more concessions from Westminster than Labour would. Labour countered, highlighting the reforms they had instituted for Scots by its government, criticised the SNP for falling on academic debates of power-sharing and constitutional wrangling. Increasing student grants for university, welfare reforms to support disabled and long-term sick workers and reductions in child poverty, Labour ran confidently on these progressive policies and achievements.
Complementing Labour was that parties which backed the changes (the Alliance and Greens) would speak fondly of such reforms and give Alexander breathing room. The Alliance, led by Tavish Scott in Westminster and the popular and upcoming Michael Moore also saw a renaissance in Scotland, proving the popular choice for rural voters, who once voted Conservative. Scotland had been one of the only parts of the UK to back the adoption of the EU constitution meaning the Union Party despite seeing local election success across England (and Wales) would be unable to get a foothold in the Scottish Parliament.
Arguably, the standout from the election was the Green Party, which in the face of the moderating SNP and the collapsing Scottish Socialists, became the left-wing alternative for many nationalists in the country. A micro-targeted campaign, in Glasgow Kelvin, with the charismatic Patrick Harvie campaigning vigorously in the constituency, saw the party win its first constituency seat while gaining many more in the list seats across the nation.
An attempt was made by Tommy Sheridan to turn the election into a narrative on corruption and nepotism, accusing the “Alexander siblings” of “dominating” Scottish politics. This largely fell on deaf ears, even despite the meteoric rise of Wendy Alexander in Westminster, and was especially ironic, considering Sheridan’s own legal troubles.
When the dust settled it was clear Scots had backed Alexander and Labour to continue in government and quickly renegotiated a deal with Alliance. With the government strongly positioned, Alexander felt confident to seek support from likeminded Greens and was able to return to power, reinvigorated.
Matador de Lagartos
Banned
The Argentinians were idiots for agreeing to any kind of referendum in the first place. Should've just dug in and said "let them come!"The Madrid Accords is a deeply contentious and unpopular document for the Falklands and Falklanders. The Madrid Accords, rather than deal with the territorial disputes which caused the Falklands Conflict and settle long-term ownership of the islands, threw the issue to the United Nations, and invited them to create a protectorate on the disputed islands. This protectorate was originally agreed in the Madrid Accord to be administered for 10 years, to cool tensions, before a plebiscite would be held by Falklanders’ to determine who owned islands. It was agreed by the UN Security Council with Resolution 528 (with Britain being arm-twisted to accept by Argentinean-friendly US Ambassador to the UN, Jeane Kirkpatrick), however, that the plebiscite would be held a year after the 10 years was up, with Falklanders given nominal control of their affairs during this year. UN Peacekeepers, in the form of a two patrol ships with 59 soldiers, thus prepared and landed at Port Stanley on the 23 March 1983, with the Argentinean garrison leaving shortly after. With the UN flag raised above the town hall, the United Nations Mission in the Falklands and its Dependencies (UNMIFAD) had begun.
A major problem for the islands was that in the year of occupation, Argentina had encouraged people to settle on the islands, which saw an influx of over 300 (the collapse of the Junta and subsequent chaos meant that the numbers were lower than the 1000 expected) settlers, who were excluded by native Falklanders and would face discrimination by the British majority. Attempts to build an Argentinian self-sufficient settlement near Port Stanley failed and by 1984, most of the settlers had returned to Argentina. Whilst the peacekeepers and UN officials would try and help these settlers integrate, these actions made them deeply unpopular to Falklanders.
The Falklands Islands, with approximately 4000 residents was the one with the largest population out of the islands administered by the mission and was the most resistant to the changes brought on by both the Madrid Accords and the UN Mission. With the suspension of the economic exclusion zone, Argentinean fishing vessels soon had a free rite of passage into Falkland’s waters and soon fishermen were seeing a depletion of the available fishing stock and of their livelihoods. This lead to infamous “trawler wars”, which saw multiple skirmishes at sea, with Falklander and Argentinean fishing boats sabotaging nets, sailing dangerously close to each other and, in some instances, ramming each other. In 1984, shots were fired between two fishing boats, which led to the death of one Argentinean fisherman. The UN patrol ships spent most of their time trying to stop this conflict, which made the UN mission and peacekeepers unpopular. Many fishermen and their families, unable to earn a living, left the islands and returned to Britain (still having British citizenship), grumbling.
The UN Mission being unpopular, saw the base being repeatedly vandalised in Port Stanley by graffiti and ‘fly dumped’ with refuse being left on the street outside the compound by disgruntled Falklanders. Peacekeepers also found themselves banned from local establishments like the Stanley Arms Bar and the Prince Andrew Bar. The eventual withdrawal of the second patrol ship in 1989 saw half the peacekeepers leave and calmed tensions of the island, but for most, the UN was still seen as an occupying and hostile force.
However, a benefit for the islands, especially South Georgia and the unhabituated South Sandwich Islands was that the protectorate allowed for greater scientific exploration from the international community. Being under UN control (and thus technically neutral), allowed for scientists to visit to study global warming and Antarctica, was a boon for some with the islands becoming a hotspot for scientific research.
By 1994, the islands were ready for the sovereignty plebiscite, even though Argentinian President Eduardo Angeloz lodged an official complaint at the United Nations about the legitimacy of the plebiscite. Complaining that the British had effectively colonized Las Malvinas and that the land belonged to Argentina, if not the people, Angeloz saw his complaint ignored by the UN. To many, an independently organised self-determination referendum, was the only peaceful and democratic way to solve the problem.
And so, with only two voters not showing up to the polls (both had left the Falklands in January for Britain and were in the process of dropping their citizenship), referendum day saw 98% vote in favour of re-joining the United Kingdom. South Georgia (with only 30 voters) saw the lesser support for British unification, the reasons for which were the benefits gained by the scientific and the distance of South Georgia from Argentina proper.
It took another year for the UN to organise a withdrawal and for sovereignty to be transferred back to Britain. The UN forced a settlement between the two countries which meant that the EEZ would be shared, and any future oil exploration or resource extraction would either be a joint effort to be monitored by the UN.
Robin Cook would become the first British PM to visit the Falklands and would stand by the former leader (and recently elected Governor) Sir Rex Hunt to welcome “reunification day”, closing the sorry saga of the conflict and of the UNMIFAD.
hmm has the UK introduced the literally game changing National Lottery which transformed UK sporting achievement and if not will it?
Argentina only keeps the islands as the US is trying to solve the situation diplomatically. If there wasn't a UN protectorate/referendum, then I'd imagine the US would back a second attempt to take back the islands. Whether they would've won is the point of your question.
Digging in would've probably lead to the UN/US firmly turning against Argentina, which would've probably given Thatcher the needed political ammunition and international legitimacy to send another taskforce. Falklanders would stick to Britain if given their right of self-determination, which the UN is designed to enforce.
Also the raft of social, political and economic issues in Argentina anyway means that long-term occupation isn't remotely viable, and the Galtieri adminstration still collapses in TTL, focusing Argentina to domestic problems. Better try and get some kickbacks through negotiation (fishing and oil rights) than the UK reannexing the islands wholesale.
Absolutely. Heseltine introduces it in 1990, to complement the bid for the Manchester Olympics. Money gets sent to build sports facilities rather than developing Team GB though, meaning the games medal haul is light.
7/17
A.N. Hello there, and well, guess I’m and this is back. Sorry it took so long for me to get back to it, but I got distracted by my other TL and honestly, this was a hard update to get out with a not particularly fun topic. Great for a cliffhanger, horrible to actually get it down. I also needed a break (didn’t realize how long I would take as a break when I paused this TL) and will probably stagger these posts a bit more than before to keep myself going through it, as there's a bit less stuff in the pipeline as we get closer to modern day. The good news though, after this grim start, things get better and IMO, some of the best is yet to come. If you’re still here from all the way back in September 2023, thanks for coming back. If you're new, hi and thanks for coming, but you might need to go back a bit to catch up...
7/17/2007. It was like any other day in New York City. Baseball, with the New York Yankees versus the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. Politics, with Speaker of the House Chuck Schumer was hosting a deluxe and all-star fundraiser, with all manner of potential Democratic presidential candidates, to co-ordinate party strategy against Gingrich for 2008. The Stock Exchange, despite some wobbles, seemed set for another year of growth.
In the packed Yankee Stadium, the home team beat the Toronto Blue Jays 3-2, and thousands of fans (including hundreds who had flown in from Toronto) began their commute home, waiting on platforms, riding packed commuter trains and standing on cramped subway cars. Six men, radicalized by poisonous ideology, were waiting. Six, almost, simultaneous explosions followed.
Medical tents at Yankee Stadium, first responders and hospitals across Manhattan and the Bronx soon back inundated with victims as the news spread of a highly coordinated attack on the NY subway. Compounding this, was the horror of one of the attackers,using an improvised chlorine bomb first, intending to make the attack more deadly than already actioned. NYPD and medical teams, upon discovering some chlorine burns, immediately instituted protective measures. However, shortly after the chlorine bomb was thrown, the suicide bomb explosion occurred, vaporizing most of the chlorine immediately and reducing its effects on those hurt. Luckily as well, their was only one small chlorine bomb, and this was used at the open air at Yankees-East 153 St Station, meaning evacuations could be quicker.
This didn't stop other nightmarish scenes being recorded and put up on Vimeo of hazmat suits and body bags. The power of the interweb meant that the attack and its aftermath was captured in all its horror, in what would colloquially become known as the first attack of the Interweb Age.
The next day, an unrelated steam explosion near Grand Central Station sent a geyser of hot steam up from beneath a busy intersection, with a 40-story-high shower of mud and flying debris raining down on the crowded streets of Midtown Manhattan. Fearing that the public reaction of this "second attack", Mayor Anthony Weiner and Governor Michael Bloomberg coordinated their responses to calm the situation and assured New Yorkers that was a complete coincidence. While this was quickly resolved, Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad (JTJ) and it's leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, claimed responsibility and promised that more attacks were coming.
As the dust cleared, 7/17 would be the worst terror attack in US history, with over 200 dead and with hundreds more left with life changing injuries. It quickly became clear to counter-terrorism agents in the NYPD and FBI that the attackers had been plotting the attack for months, living in America. However, these men had been radicalized in the war-torn nation of Iraq, which had since its civil war become a hotbed for all manner of terror related dealings.
The Gingrich Administration quickly leaped into action, proposing, authorizing and creating the Department of Homeland Security, instituted in September 2008 to manage internal security and stop another 7/17 ever again.
It would be however, during Gingrich’s 2008 State of the Union, that the debate changed from recovery, to retribution. Pivoting to foreign policy, Gingrich welcomed the newly elected Korean President Moon Jae-In and spoke fondly of the recent reunification of the Koreas’ on January 1, 2008. Gingrich spoke of the sacrifice of the Korean and American people to see through a stable and democratic Korean Peninsula. He then turned to 7/17, and spoke of the loss and death caused by the attack. Terrorism, evil and injustice needed to be stamped out, no matter where and who it lay with. The rules-based international order was being tested by so-called “aggressors” including Russia, Iraq and Iran and, the so-called “fourth section”, terror and terrorist groups. America needed to step up, or else victories like in Korea would be replaced by tragedies like 7/17.
The speech was light on detail, but heavy on bluster. Policy followed the State of the Union, and it all pointed to one thing. Iraq represented a clear and present danger and it was America who would respond.
It was clear that the First Gulf War, economic sanctions and even the ongoing no-fly zone had done little to stop the violence, instability and terror in the region. Qusay Hussein led a morally abhorrent regime, mirroring his abject cruelty and paranoia. Having won the civil war against his brother, Qusay had become addicted to pills, drugs, and alcohol. The secret police, militias, and intelligence services (having morphed into a fully corrupt and dysfunctional service) mirrored the Gestapo in its ruthlessness in government strongholds (Baghdad, Mosul, and Fallujah) and would be paid to look the other way as terrorist training camps to popped up across the nation. Analysts soon found guns manufactured for the Iraqi Army had been traded across the world, to various illegal organizations. The security case for intervention was clear.
Human rights abuses continued, food shortages were common and clean running water and electricity was seen as a luxury and only available through bribery or political power, Iraq was easily one of the worst places to live in on Earth. On top of this, violence continued to plague the nation, with militia groups which had been formed by Uday and the Sunni majority continuing to attack government positions and civilian targets, the human rights case for intervention was clear.
Iraq also held largely untapped resources, such as oil and minerals, which was horded by Qusay and his clique, and these resources would often find themselves traded to the highest bidder. The West (and America) had traditional links with Iraq, and with the oil wars started by Lebed’s Russia, a old well could be re-opened. A craven argument, but the economic case for intervention was clear.
Gingrich, meanwhile, was one of the most unpopular Presidents' in recent history. Against almost all potential Democratic candidates, he was sure to be defeated in re-election. If someone need a boost in the polls from a rally-round-the-flag effect, it was Gingrich. The political case was clear.
Now all it took was to get the public on side.
7/17/2007. It was like any other day in New York City. Baseball, with the New York Yankees versus the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. Politics, with Speaker of the House Chuck Schumer was hosting a deluxe and all-star fundraiser, with all manner of potential Democratic presidential candidates, to co-ordinate party strategy against Gingrich for 2008. The Stock Exchange, despite some wobbles, seemed set for another year of growth.
In the packed Yankee Stadium, the home team beat the Toronto Blue Jays 3-2, and thousands of fans (including hundreds who had flown in from Toronto) began their commute home, waiting on platforms, riding packed commuter trains and standing on cramped subway cars. Six men, radicalized by poisonous ideology, were waiting. Six, almost, simultaneous explosions followed.
Medical tents at Yankee Stadium, first responders and hospitals across Manhattan and the Bronx soon back inundated with victims as the news spread of a highly coordinated attack on the NY subway. Compounding this, was the horror of one of the attackers,using an improvised chlorine bomb first, intending to make the attack more deadly than already actioned. NYPD and medical teams, upon discovering some chlorine burns, immediately instituted protective measures. However, shortly after the chlorine bomb was thrown, the suicide bomb explosion occurred, vaporizing most of the chlorine immediately and reducing its effects on those hurt. Luckily as well, their was only one small chlorine bomb, and this was used at the open air at Yankees-East 153 St Station, meaning evacuations could be quicker.
This didn't stop other nightmarish scenes being recorded and put up on Vimeo of hazmat suits and body bags. The power of the interweb meant that the attack and its aftermath was captured in all its horror, in what would colloquially become known as the first attack of the Interweb Age.
The next day, an unrelated steam explosion near Grand Central Station sent a geyser of hot steam up from beneath a busy intersection, with a 40-story-high shower of mud and flying debris raining down on the crowded streets of Midtown Manhattan. Fearing that the public reaction of this "second attack", Mayor Anthony Weiner and Governor Michael Bloomberg coordinated their responses to calm the situation and assured New Yorkers that was a complete coincidence. While this was quickly resolved, Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad (JTJ) and it's leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, claimed responsibility and promised that more attacks were coming.
As the dust cleared, 7/17 would be the worst terror attack in US history, with over 200 dead and with hundreds more left with life changing injuries. It quickly became clear to counter-terrorism agents in the NYPD and FBI that the attackers had been plotting the attack for months, living in America. However, these men had been radicalized in the war-torn nation of Iraq, which had since its civil war become a hotbed for all manner of terror related dealings.
The Gingrich Administration quickly leaped into action, proposing, authorizing and creating the Department of Homeland Security, instituted in September 2008 to manage internal security and stop another 7/17 ever again.
It would be however, during Gingrich’s 2008 State of the Union, that the debate changed from recovery, to retribution. Pivoting to foreign policy, Gingrich welcomed the newly elected Korean President Moon Jae-In and spoke fondly of the recent reunification of the Koreas’ on January 1, 2008. Gingrich spoke of the sacrifice of the Korean and American people to see through a stable and democratic Korean Peninsula. He then turned to 7/17, and spoke of the loss and death caused by the attack. Terrorism, evil and injustice needed to be stamped out, no matter where and who it lay with. The rules-based international order was being tested by so-called “aggressors” including Russia, Iraq and Iran and, the so-called “fourth section”, terror and terrorist groups. America needed to step up, or else victories like in Korea would be replaced by tragedies like 7/17.
The speech was light on detail, but heavy on bluster. Policy followed the State of the Union, and it all pointed to one thing. Iraq represented a clear and present danger and it was America who would respond.
Human rights abuses continued, food shortages were common and clean running water and electricity was seen as a luxury and only available through bribery or political power, Iraq was easily one of the worst places to live in on Earth. On top of this, violence continued to plague the nation, with militia groups which had been formed by Uday and the Sunni majority continuing to attack government positions and civilian targets, the human rights case for intervention was clear.
Iraq also held largely untapped resources, such as oil and minerals, which was horded by Qusay and his clique, and these resources would often find themselves traded to the highest bidder. The West (and America) had traditional links with Iraq, and with the oil wars started by Lebed’s Russia, a old well could be re-opened. A craven argument, but the economic case for intervention was clear.
Gingrich, meanwhile, was one of the most unpopular Presidents' in recent history. Against almost all potential Democratic candidates, he was sure to be defeated in re-election. If someone need a boost in the polls from a rally-round-the-flag effect, it was Gingrich. The political case was clear.
Now all it took was to get the public on side.
Last edited: