To address the modded in elephant in the room, I think Kaiserreich, much like base HoI4 nerfs the victors of ww1 in the interest of storytelling and gameplay. While that's fine, this thread is more discussing things like culture in TTL, or economics, potential rivals in the later century, etc, than a hypothetical ww2 or who wins. Personally, I don't think such a war would happen for reasons I elaborate on after the fact. I also want to clarify that I'm not exactly a fan of the Kaiserreich, frankly, Versailles was too lenient imo, but I do think they would be in a better position than Britain and France otl due to what I know of ww1 and the Chancellor's plans for the settlement.

Rare is the nation who is capable of making the world revolve around them, but the Spanish, British, and the Americans have all had centuries like this; controlling shares of the world economy, naval supremacy, and in the case of America and Britain, not being as damaged as the other powers by the major conflicts at the dawn of their hegemonic eras. One nation who was almost able to claim the world as their oyster in the 20th century was the German Empire until the US (who were fresh and had spent ww1 making money instead of losing it) rendered that moot for the most part. They would try again in ww2, but that went even worse for Germany. But, if Germany was able to win before the Americans intervened, I think they would be in a nearly unassailable position. Their plans for eastern Europe were very similar to a monarchical EU, and their aims were to destabilize France by seizing their wealthy northeast and giving Belgium areas like Calais. If we assume the peace settlement looks roughly like this, maybe with France giving up Indochina instead of joining the pact, what happens to Europe and the world? Even if Britain has a larger empire, the deaths and likely being cut off from the industrialized European Continent can't be good for anyone (and that's before revolts in places like India and perhaps SA). France and Russia would be deprived of their wealthiest regions, and unlike OTL, Mittleuropa would be protecting what used to be the Russian Empire; even before territorial losses, France has most certainly lost even more than their 1.3 ish dead of OTL

Considering that Germany was on the offensive during the war, I think there'll be a 'Return To Normalcy,' in the not-quite-Roaring 20s. Similarly, I think German colonialism would be much more viable than the late french or British; while they've still lost close to 2M men, they would likely have quite the baby boom and have established incredible trade relations that Germany had never enjoyed prior, meaning they would be in better financial shape. While I could see something of a hiccup by the 30s, given all the resources they're extracting from Africa and the German stranglehold on Europe, I find it unlikely. By the mid-century, depending on British and American actions, I could see a resurgence of adventurism and intervention, but I'm not sure. I would definitely expect a giant pissing match with Washington over South America, considering things like Venezuela OTL, or how Germany would likely start supplanting Britain in the region. To be honest, I would expect that Japan would actually be Germany's biggest rival, likely leading to a German Coalition in China if/when the 2nd sinno-japanese war starts. Weather this would be enough to prevent Tokyo from taking it, especially if there's no embargo putting them on borrowed time, I don't know.

Culturally, I would expect a fusion of manifest destiny and Prussian militarism; the former due to the giant colonial empire now under berlin's grasp. DSA, as we all know would likely be a settler colony, if only to offset the genocidal reprisals against rebellion. I would imagine Cameroon and the former French Equitorial Africa would similarly be lands of opportunity. The Kongo, however, would probably remain just as brutal as the Belgian form of the state. However, I would imagine that the railroad hubs that would inevitably pop up would draw some german settlements, as well as spur the growth of native communities, which could create an interesting cultural exchange. Prussian Militarism, having won them the war, would lead to Germany likely being very bellicose during her early ascendancy, but other than naval adventurism, I can't see this amounting to much because of how tired the people would likely be.


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There are lots of people more knowledgeable or who have played more kaiserreich than me, and I'm trying to predict an entire century off some very specific points of reference. So I'm sure there's some notable criticique to be made, in which i am very interested.
 
I am not sure if the Septemberprogramm in its "maximalist" version from the wiki is a probable outcome. I'm not saying that the Entente are likely to outright win without the USA but I would not expect a Mitteleuropa from Calais to Donetsk. Even without American involvement I don't think a decisive breakthrough on the western front can be taken for granted. And in the east the OTL Brest-Litovsk was the result of a rather specific combination of factors. My reading is that in OTL the Bolsheviks refused the initial demads because, since America was in the war, they expected Germany to lose anyway. But if America is not in the war, I think it would be likely that the Russian government would accept to cede more or less what Germany had occupied to the west of the Riga-Tarnopol line.

I think that the best the Central Powers could reasonably hope to gain was roughly the following: Belgium, central Poland, the Ober-Ost area, Serbia and Romania, and possibly some French and Belgian colonies in return for a withdrawal from France. Together with the Central Powers' original posessions this is a lot, but IMO not enough to securely dominate Europe in the long term. Especially not if the USA decides that Germany is getting too uppity and adopts a pro-Entente attitude.

To complicate matters farther, many Mitteleuropean countries will be vulnerable to ethnic conflict. Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans are multi-ethnic empires and the early 20th century was a particularly difficult time for such entities. The populations of Germany's eastern satellites will probably be quite unhappy. And Germany itself can't have its cake and eat it too. It must either accept a strong presence of Walloons, Poles and other minorities in its political life, or not liberalize or democratize and double down on the problems which this entails.

Also I may be a euroskeptic but even I wouldn't go so far as to call the Mitteleuropa concept a real predecessor to the EU in its present form. Mitteleuropa as envisioned by the Junkers would have been something much nastier. In the modern EU we don't have any plans for population expulsions, borders making a mockery of any notion of self-determination or enforcement of all this by the Bundeswehr. Expansionist militarism and enforcement of the core countries' will at gunpoint is thankfully simply not part of the EU mindset at the present time and hopefully never will be.
 
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