Could the Ashikaga shoguns unite Japan?

[Vinization]

Disclaimer: I know next to nothing about this period.

While dozens if not hundreds of clans all over Japan fought for dominance during the Sengoku Jidai, the Ashikaga clan, whose kinsmen held the post of shogun (and were, thus, nominal rulers of Japan) for most of the period, were powerless. Their authority was restricted to Kyoto, and as if that weren't enough they were vulnerable to the whims of whichever warlord dominated Kansai every few years. Coups were common, and the post of shogun was occupied by children on at least two occasions.

So, was there any chance the Ashikaga could've somehow gotten the upper hand during the Sengoku period, perhaps by playing the daimyos against one another and getting extremely lucky in the process? A brief glance at Ashikaga Yoshiteru's article on wikipedia shows he tried to reassert his authority as shogun, but he failed and eventually commited suicide. Were there any clans who could benefit from a strong shogunate, or would they all see such a state of affairs as a threat to their power?

 

[GameBawesome]

In my opinion and from what I know of the period, imo the answer would be... probably not alone, and the Ashikaga would have to be extremely and very lucky. A common misconception that most people have about the Sengoku Jidai, is that everyone was fighting to become the Shogun a take control of all of Japan, which isn't the case. It was mostly to expand their Clan's regional influence, like the Mori Clan in Chugoku, the Later Hojo Clan in the Kanto, or the Otomo and Shimazu in Kyushu. The Ashikaga was in the Kansai and were puppets of many clans such as the Hosokawa and later the Miyoshi Clan. Plus, there was another branch of the Ashikaga Clan in the Kanto that was crushed by the Later Hojo Clan. The only exceptions I can think of who wanted to take control of all Japan, were the Imagawa, the Oda, the Takeda, and the Toyotomi (There's also the Tokugawa, but that's entire different story). And IMO, it was kinda the Oda Nobunaga that gave people like Takeda Shingen a reason to march on Kyoto and take control of the country.

From what I've read of Ashikaga Yoshiteru, while he was well respected by Daimyos such as Uesugi Kenshin and even Oda Nobunaga and a very skilled swordsman, his actual control was minimal as he was reliant on clans such as the Miyoshi. So, trying to reunify the clans through military force is going to a no-go as he lacked the resources to do so. Plus, there's also the Ikko Ikki, who were entirely Anti-Samurai, and OTL it even took Oda Nobunaga a long time to stamp them out, and Toyotomi Hideyoshi to finish the job.

He could try diplomacy like he did OTL amongst certain conflicts, but it was more akin to the Emperor of Japan, where the Shogun was well-respected from time to time as a meditator or political leverage (Like how Oda Nobunaga puppet the Shogunate till he got rid of it). The diplomacy would take too long, and Yoshiteru's successor would have to be as respected as well to continue his work (Which isn't a given). Or he could do what Tokugawa Ieyasu did, and wait for the right opportunity to reassert control by playing his cards right.

So, Ashikaga Yoshiteru would have to be extremely lucky and diplomatically savvy enough to get the right alliances to reunify Japan under Ashikaga control.

 

[Phalamus]

I don't think they could, for the same reason as they fell in the first place. They had very little territory and very few men under their direct control. Their authority rested entirely on the prestige of the shogunal position. This made them very useful as puppets for powerful lords, but gave them little chance of actually regaining power

 

[Vinization]

Was there any chance for the Ashikaga to secure a "demesne" for themselves? Perhaps if they're lucky to back a powerful lord from some faraway province who is strong enough to keep the daimyos in Kansai in check, but still needs to tend to their own lands, keeping said lord from keeping too close an eye on the shogun's business?

 

[Ambassador Huntsman]

Because the Sengoku Period technically starts in 1477 with the end of the Onin War, I’m gonna go far back and say that shogun Yoshihisa was the last one who could’ve reunited Japan. IOTL, he fell sick on a campaign and died in 1489, partially attributed to alcoholism. Shortly afterwards, his father and ex-shogun Yoshimasa died. Yoshihisa was in his mid-20s when he died, meaning that he could’ve been shogun for another 20-30 years easily which would’ve had a big impact. He was somewhat capable and able to lead armies personally. Additionally, he was still able to rely on his father who died shortly afterwards his son did. Had Yoshihisa lived and grown his power, he could’ve begun to patch back together Japan, one that had just leapt into the Sengoku period.

Instead, his successor Yoshitane was overthrown and forced into exile in 1493 by Hosokawa Masamoto, resulting in a child cousin made the next shogun as Yoshizumi and puppeted by Masamoto. Yoshitane had to wait until 1508 before being reinstated through the military power of Ouchi Yoshioki. The position of the shogun lost tremendous authority and power in the process. Had that not happened, things could’ve turned out differently.

 

[Vinization]

Because the Sengoku Period technically starts in 1477 with the end of the Onin War, I’m gonna go far back and say that shogun Yoshihisa was the last one who could’ve reunited Japan. IOTL, he fell sick on a campaign and died in 1489, partially attributed to alcoholism. Shortly afterwards, his father and ex-shogun Yoshimasa died. Yoshihisa was in his mid-20s when he died, meaning that he could’ve been shogun for another 20-30 years easily which would’ve had a big impact. He was somewhat capable and able to lead armies personally. Additionally, he was still able to rely on his father who died shortly afterwards his son did. Had Yoshihisa lived and grown his power, he could’ve begun to patch back together Japan, one that had just leapt into the Sengoku period.

Instead, his successor Yoshitane was overthrown and forced into exile in 1493 by Hosokawa Masamoto, resulting in a child cousin made the next shogun as Yoshizumi and puppeted by Masamoto. Yoshitane had to wait until 1508 before being reinstated through the military power of Ouchi Yoshioki. The position of the shogun lost tremendous authority and power in the process. Had that not happened, things could’ve turned out differently.

Aw, I was looking for a POD after 1520, but thanks for your info anyway. What do you think of the premise I raised on the post I made above yours? Is it plausible, or does it hinge on too much luck to be believable?

Was there any chance for the Ashikaga to secure a "demesne" for themselves? Perhaps if they're lucky to back a powerful lord from some faraway province who is strong enough to keep the daimyos in Kansai in check, but still needs to tend to their own lands, keeping said lord from keeping too close an eye on the shogun's business?

 

[Strategos' Risk]

So you're telling me this was an era in which the emperor and the shogun were both powerless puppets?

 

[Vinization]

So you're telling me this was an era in which the emperor and the shogun were both powerless puppets?

My understanding is that the whole thing was a free-for-all.

 

[Ambassador Huntsman]

Aw, I was looking for a POD after 1520, but thanks for your info anyway. What do you think of the premise I raised on the post I made above yours? Is it plausible, or does it hinge on too much luck to be believable?

So after Miyoshi Nagayoshi died in 1564, there was a power vacuum that Ashikaga Yoshiteru tried to take advantage of. However he was killed by Matsunaga Hisahide and the Miyoshi Sannin-shu in 1565. Had any daimyo answered his call of aid in time to save him, he could’ve lived and defeated Hisahide and friends before consolidating the power as shogun. In that unlikely scenario, he could’ve begun to centralize power but it would be a very long path considering by then they were so many daimyo that could field armies of more than 10,000 men. Under those conditions, I don’t think any shogun could reunify the country the way someone like Nobunaga or Ieyasu could or did, or at least it would be the work of a few generations.

 

[Vinization]

So after Miyoshi Nagayoshi died in 1564, there was a power vacuum that Ashikaga Yoshiteru tried to take advantage of. However he was killed by Matsunaga Hisahide and the Miyoshi Sannin-shu in 1565. Had any daimyo answered his call of aid in time to save him, he could’ve lived and defeated Hisahide and friends before consolidating the power as shogun. In that unlikely scenario, he could’ve begun to centralize power but it would be a very long path considering by then they were so many daimyo that could field armies of more than 10,000 men. Under those conditions, I don’t think any shogun could reunify the country the way someone like Nobunaga or Ieyasu could or did, or at least it would be the work of a few generations.

I see, thank you for your input.