Battle of Quebec a success for America

[TMOT1955]

The battle of Quebec during The Revolutionary War was a resounding defeat for America and a personal defeat for Benedict Arnold.

But what if The Battle of Quebec had been an equally resounding success for America, The Continental Army successfully takes and holds Quebec?

What does that do in terms of The Revolutionary War? Does The USA end up with all or most of Canada? Also what does that do in terms of Benedict Arnold?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

well it increases Arnold's prestige and he instead of Gates is made chief commander in the North... I also see him as a strong Federlist but i doubt he is a good enough writer to make him a writer of the Federlist papers but it would be interesting if he was.... it would also have increased Ethan Allen's prestige... which he might be able to parlay into the creation of the state of Vermont earlier... Allen was also a sucessful guerrilla fighter and if given more resources, which might make British waste more forces in NY and surrounding area trying to capture him..

 

[Umbric Man]

One could argue it's harder for Newfoundland, PEI, and Nova Scotia to potentially be supported, surrounded by American territory. But they were either entirely-or-almost islands, so that may be a moot point.

Further, most of the Americans would despise the Canadians and vice versa. I cannot see Canada, compared to other potential states, as a long-term successful part of America. Even the filled-with-loyalists East Florida would be easier to eventually assilimate.

 

[Doug M.]

It's certainly a plausible WI -- OTL, Arnold's campaign came pretty close to succeeding.

Two threshold questions arise:

1) Will the Quebecois join the Revolution?

Probably, but it's not clear how enthusiastic they'll be. The British treated them well enough. I suspect they'd declare independence, but not contribute much to the "common" cause. (Note that Arnold was authorized to offer the Quebecois equal status with the other 13 colonies.)

2) Would independent Quebec survive the Revolutionary War?

That's much less clear. Quebec was in a bad strategic position; the British controlled the mouth of the St. Lawrence River, and could move troops inland at will. Quebec City has a superb defensive position, but the rest of the province is quite vulnerable.

The question then becomes, would the British try to recover Quebec? After all, they do have other things going on. Still, one suspects they would. It's a vast province, and symbolically important as the biggest single spoil of the last successful war.

Note that, whether they do or don't, the RW jumps the tracks in a big way. There's no Saratoga. Some other battle may take its place, of course... but both sides will be moving troops in very different directions than iOTL. Still, IMO the most likely outcome is that the British recover Quebec but the Americans end up winning their war anyhow. Both US and Canadian history will proceed rather differently thereafter.

But say Quebec Libre makes it out of the war: either the Brits decide not to attack, or the expedition's commanding officer is one of /those/ generals, or they just roll snake-eyes. Whatever. Now what?

Well, I think it's likely that QL joins the Articles of Confederation. Why not? It's a loose federation, and they'll still have plenty of autonomy.

But by 1787 the wheels are visibly coming off the AoC. So there'll probably be a Constitutional Convention, much as iOTL. And now things get hinky and ginchy. Do the Quebecois even join? Or do they simply secede? I have trouble seeing much enthusiasm in Montreal for a More Perfect Union with the much more populous Anglo states.

Other hand, if Quebec stays in, this TL's Constitution may be very different from ours. (Just to give one minor example, Quebec most definitely has an Established Church.)

Again, I think the most likely outcome is that Quebec peacefully secedes from the Confederation when the rest of the country joins the United States. And I think it would be peaceful; the country was profoundly war-weary in the 1780s, and the concept of "Union" hardly existed yet.

Mind, this sets an example for future secession. It also means the map of North America looks rather different. The northeast corner of the continent is still British, and the Hudson's Bay Company will still be trying to claim the far northwest. What's now western Canada will eventually be the subject of a three-cornered dispute. My best guess is that Britain still manages to claim the modern Yukon Territory, while Quebec expands into most of what's now Ontario (though the US may grab the southern "tongue" east of Lake Huron) and Manitoba. The Pacific Coast, who knows.

If Quebec stays in, then at least there's none of this nonsense about having a Senate that's fair and balanced between free and slave. Quebec throws that out of whack from the start, and then it probably spawns a second and then a third Francophone state in the north. Quebecois would not be abolitionists, but they'd find the southern slave system deeply alien, and would have no interest in supporting it.

Assimilation, hmm. Probably not in Quebec itself. But there'd be some interesting mixing in the new western states. I suspect there'd be more movement south than north -- Quebec has more land, but it's /cold/ -- so by the mid-19th century there'd be Francophone minorities in Ohio, Michigan and Indiana.

Politically, the francophones would be natural Jeffersonian Democrats. I doubt John Adams even has one presidential term in this TL.

At this point the knockon effects really explode. The floor is open...


Doug M.

 

[Zyzzyva]

One could argue it's harder for Newfoundland, PEI, and Nova Scotia to potentially be supported, surrounded by American territory. But they were either entirely-or-almost islands, so that may be a moot point.

No, they'd still be easy to hold onto - they all face east. What's going on in the hinterland to the west matters not at all.

It's certainly a plausible WI -- OTL, Arnold's campaign came pretty close to succeeding.

...Er, which Quebec campaign are you talking about? IOTL, Arnold dragged his ragged, crappy army through 700 kicks of wilderness, arriving just before their contracts all expired, and was therefore forced to make a desperate New Years Day assault into the teeth of the british positions during a snowstorm.

That said, assuming Arnold gets the luckiest break of all time:

Two threshold questions arise:

1) Will the Quebecois join the Revolution?

Probably, but it's not clear how enthusiastic they'll be. The British treated them well enough. I suspect they'd declare independence, but not contribute much to the "common" cause. (Note that Arnold was authorized to offer the Quebecois equal status with the other 13 colonies.)

Arnold will find someone or other to declare independance, but the Quebecois won't care much. Not the way they responded to, well, pretty much every change in government before the 1950s.

2) Would independent Quebec survive the Revolutionary War?

That's much less clear. Quebec was in a bad strategic position; the British controlled the mouth of the St. Lawrence River, and could move troops inland at will. Quebec City has a superb defensive position, but the rest of the province is quite vulnerable.

The question then becomes, would the British try to recover Quebec? After all, they do have other things going on. Still, one suspects they would. It's a vast province, and symbolically important as the biggest single spoil of the last successful war.

I'm not sure, actually: they've still got Halifax, and the American Colonies are still the far greater prize. If they can defeat the Americans (tough but Howe doesn't know this) then Quebec will fall back into their hands; on the other hand, if they get Quebec but lose the Americans, they're up... a bunch of Frogs. Whoopee.

<snip>

The rest is a much better though of it than I could have done, though. Quebec seceding in 1787 seems the logical endpoint - and frankly I suspect the Americans will be glad to see them go.

So, we have: USA east of the Mississippi, Quebec covering the Province of Canada, British colonies in NS, PEI and Newf, and everybody fighting over the western fur trade. Fun times.

 

[Trotsky]

I think the British would avoid retaking Quebec if lost in 1775. The only reason why I think they would strike there at all, and at Montreal, would be as a preliminary campaign for the big push down the Hudson corridor. Or if they decide to focus on the northern colonies later on in the war the way they focused on the south, initiated by attacking fringe cities down there in Charleston and Savannah.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I think colonist were just trying to liberate Quebec and create a new war front not annex at it, most founding father realized that Quebec just didnt fit into their ideal USA...and wasnt the cities of Toronto and Montreal the cities they wanted to annex because of the high english population

 

[Zyzzyva]

I think colonist were just trying to liberate Quebec and create a new war front not annex at it, most founding father realized that Quebec just didnt fit into their ideal USA...and wasnt the cities of Toronto and Montreal the cities they wanted to annex because of the high english population

What Toronto?

...And the Anglo Montrealers were mostly Loyalists and hence hadn't arrived yet.

...Jeez, people, learn your Canadian History before making Canadian PODs.

 

[Trotsky]

I think colonist were just trying to liberate Quebec and create a new war front not annex at it, most founding father realized that Quebec just didnt fit into their ideal USA...and wasnt the cities of Toronto and Montreal the cities they wanted to annex because of the high english population

Toronto didn't exist in 1775. Hell its predecessor York didn't exist then, either.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

ooo danm... well they wanted montreal and that was there... hopefully

 

[Trotsky]

I don't see why the Thirteen Colonies wouldn't have taken in Quebec, or at least make it separate but sovereign. Was the presence of British North America all that desirable?

 

[General Zod]

I don't see why the Thirteen Colonies wouldn't have taken in Quebec, or at least make it separate but sovereign. Was the presence of British North America all that desirable?

Yup. The Patriot movement was very very eager to bring Quebec in, so it's most likely that they would have accepted the necessary compromises to make the Quebecois feel at home (e.g. a constitutional exception to allow an Established church, as long as the practice is non-discriminatory). It would not have taken much, since the US constitutional framework already gives a very ample latitude and tolerance to a community that is the majority in a state. if the Mormon-majority Utah could become a functional and accepted state, with some bumps, I find it difficult to imagine that Quebec would have necessarily fallen out.

 

[Umbric Man]

What Toronto?

...And the Anglo Montrealers were mostly Loyalists and hence hadn't arrived yet.

...Jeez, people, learn your Canadian History before making Canadian PODs.

I've seen at least THREE different topics that refer to Upper Canada, Toronto/York, etc before their foundings. It's amazing.

 

[Trotsky]

I've seen at least THREE different topics that refer to Upper Canada, Toronto/York, etc before their foundings. It's amazing.

In the past week, too. It's almost as bad the time a month ago when at least 7 different threads on Operation VALKYRIE were started at the same time.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

It took almost forty years to resolve the issue of Utah and even then the Mormons were forced to make concessions, not only on the Mormon faith's no longer being the official church of Utah but in terms of certain tenets of their religion itself.

More likely given the disinterest on the part of Quebec this simply invites an easy target for the British to score an important victory over the Americans. Assuming that France doesn't respond poorly to this development, which is a potentially disastrous point for the Americans.

No French support or intervention, the US loses.

 

[Trotsky]

It took almost forty years to resolve the issue of Utah and even then the Mormons were forced to make concessions, not only on the Mormon faith's no longer being the official church of Utah but in terms of certain tenets of their religion itself.

Indeed. IIRC the population of Utah Territory, or whatever it was called pre-statehood, tried and failed several times to become a state since the Utah War ended in 1858. I think controversy over the Mountain Meadows massacre also held up statehood proceedings until Brigham Young conceded and surrendered a scapegoat for execution, and even then it still took a good twenty years. It took a lot of concessions and face-saving from the Latter Day Saints leadership to turn their "Deseret" into the sovereign state of Utah.

 

[johnm]

Interesting to think about how France would react if the Americans captured Quebec... would they expect it back? Just because Arnold captures Quebec City, though, doesn't mean he's captured all of Upper (or Lower, or whatever it is) Canada. He'll have several major problems to deal with first, including: 1) needing to rest and re-supply his forces; 2) needing to defend the city from counterattack; as well as 3) needing to deal with the fact that his forces' contracts are expiring shortly. Given any of these reasons, it may be more viable for him to abandon the city having made some sort of point by initially capturing it. Say Arnold manages to hold on, though; I would say his next move (other than dealing with a British counterattack, probably from the east) would be against Montreal, the next major city on the St. Lawrence and another potential supply base against upstate New York. The British, though, would probably want Quebec City back pretty badly, since it was an important strategic base north of the United States, and in American hands would sever the St. Lawrence between Halifax and Montreal. Defending it against such an attack would probably be quite an undertaking, although the French were able to sit out the British siege quite well back in the Seven Years' War. If the Americans could take Montreal as well, they might be tempted as their position improves later in the war to make a move on Halifax, the main British base on the Atlantic and home of the Royal Navy's North American squadron. There was a small uprising there at the start of the revolution, which appealed to Washington for help but were refused and eventually evaporated. With French naval help, however, they might be tempted to make a move on Halifax, but whether they could actually accomplish anything is debatable... if they did however, it would be a pretty fantastic situation for the Americans... What they would do with the territory afterwards, though, is harder to say. If they had Halifax, they could potentially claim all of Canada from Halifax to Montreal and probably what is now Ontario too, though Newfoundland would probably stay British- but would France want (or be allowed) any of this territory? If nothing happened at Halifax they could still claim Canada from Quebec to Ontario, then farther west, as long as everybody there would want them... all in all pretty hard to say.

-John

 

[Wendell]

Quebec having an established church would not have been a problem under the U.S. constitution, as oner or more of the thirteen states had established churches well into the nineteenth century.

 

[Hierophant]

I think that if Quebec were to remain in the US, it's likely straight from the get go that Quebec will receive more Catholic immigrants, most from Ireland. You might see New England radically altered with more Irish getting off in Quebec City or Montreal than Boston.

I think they would encourage this type of immigration to secure a catholic majority in Quebec amidst fears of being swamped by dirty American protestants.

 

[Wendell]

I think that if Quebec were to remain in the US, it's likely straight from the get go that Quebec will receive more Catholic immigrants, most from Ireland. You might see New England radically altered with more Irish getting off in Quebec City or Montreal than Boston.

I think they would encourage this type of immigration to secure a catholic majority in Quebec amidst fears of being swamped by dirty American protestants.

Significantly, it would help to secure an anglophone Catholic majority in the area.