Argentina decides the Falkalnds are a bad idea--what does the junta do.

[NHBL]

If President Leopoldo Galtieri of Argentina had decided that the Falkland invasion was a Bad Ida, is he likely to try something in the Beagle Channel, or do something else to try to prop up the regime? Or would he try to ride out the discontent by other means.
(In this timeline, Carter won in 1980, and Britain has been supporting the United States since a major terrorist attack in the USA in 1980, so the Argentines believe that American support of the British is near guaranteed.

I posted this just before the shutdown ate the post, so apologies if anyone replied and I didn't see it.
Thanks!

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

Good question.

My guess is it tries to bully Chile over their territorial disputes. It does need something to distract the growing opposition.

 

[Ramontxo]

At the time the border between Argentina and Chile, at the Patagonia, was not settled. To resolve the situation an Papal Laudo was asked and it was far, quite a lot far, from being satisfactory for the Argentina Junta. The Junta was quite tempted to go to war. Why they didn't is anyone guess. But I have found references in Argentinian forums of senior armed forces officers predicting that war to be an repetition of the Finish Soviet one with Chile being Finland an Argentina being the Soviet Union. So when in a catastrophic economical and social situation they chose the "Goa option" go for the Falklands because the British wouldn't fight back...

 

[NHBL]

Good question.

My guess is it tries to bully Chile over their territorial disputes. It does need something to distract the growing opposition.

That is an option, but not necessarily a good one.

At the time the border between Argentina and Chile, at the Patagonia, was not settled. To resolve the situation an Papal Laudo was asked and it was far, quite a lot far, from being satisfactory for the Argentina Junta. The Junta was quite tempted to go to war. Why they didn't is anyone guess. But I have found references in Argentinian forums of senior armed forces officers predicting that war to be an repetition of the Finish Soviet one with Chile being Finland an Argentina being the Soviet Union. So when in a catastrophic economical and social situation they chose the "Goa option" go for the Falklands because the British wouldn't fight back...

In this case, they are confident that the Empire will strike back, and bring friends...most likely an American carrier group. They may not be right about that, but they aren't the Japanese; the prospect of the USA getting involved is Not To Be Ignored.
Is trying to reslove the Beagle Channel by force worse than not having a crisis to rally people around the junta?

 

[Riain]

Invasion of the Falklands and South Georgia was Admiral Anaya's prerequisite for the Navy's support in the overthrow President Roberto Viola. If Galtieri subsequently decides against invading the Falklands the Admiral Anaya withdraws the Navy's support for Galtieri and plots to find another Junta leader who will invade.

 

[NHBL]

Invasion of the Falklands and South Georgia was Admiral Anaya's prerequisite for the Navy's support in the overthrow President Roberto Viola. If Galtieri subsequently decides against invading the Falklands the Admiral Anaya withdraws the Navy's support for Galtieri and plots to find another Junta leader who will invade.

Would Admiral Anaya go that route if he thought that Britain A: would fight back, and B: would have serious but unknown levels of American support ? And if he decided to replace Galtieri, could he?

 

[Riain]

Would Admiral Anaya go that route if he thought that Britain A: would fight back, and B: would have serious but unknown levels of American support ? And if he decided to replace Galtieri, could he?

Argentina invaded South Thule in 1976, the British sent Operation Journeyman south almost a year later in response but this went home without confronting the invaders let alone evicting them, and this was when Britain had the Ark Royal in service.

Anaya told the CNO to plan to take but not hold the Falklands, which I find strange, almost like they expected the British would fight back and win.

 

[cjc]

I mean Argentina and chile had really bad relations during the same period, maby a war there?

 

[Xenophonte]

Invasion of the Falklands and South Georgia was Admiral Anaya's prerequisite for the Navy's support in the overthrow President Roberto Viola. If Galtieri subsequently decides against invading the Falklands the Admiral Anaya withdraws the Navy's support for Galtieri and plots to find another Junta leader who will invade.

Yeah , but it was IOTL, here in the OP proposed TL, given a closer than OTL US-GB 'special relationship', it (the Adm. Anaya condition), don't you think that it would be probably to change, to be butterflied away?

 

[qazse]

I don't want to be that person, but "Falklands" is misspelled in the thread title...

 

[Riain]

Yeah , but it was IOTL, here in the OP proposed TL, given a closer than OTL US-GB 'special relationship', it (the Adm. Anaya condition), don't you think that it would be probably to change, to be butterflied away?

No, Thatcher met with Carter to talk Trident and Carter agreed to sell the British the Trident I as well as extend for 5 years the MDA where the British had access to US nuclear weapons design . Reagan was just as tight with Thatcher as Carter was, about the only difference would be Jeanne Kirkpatrick not being on Carters team.

 

[NHBL]

No, Thatcher met with Carter to talk Trident and Carter agreed to sell the British the Trident I as well as extend for 5 years the MDA where the British had access to US nuclear weapons design . Reagan was just as tight with Thatcher as Carter was, about the only difference would be Jeanne Kirkpatrick not being on Carters team.

The timeline I'm working on, which is a SI, and thus ASB, will have a tighter relation, in that the USDA and Britain have recently shed blood together, since a terrorist attack killed just over 5000 people in Portsmouth, NH, as well as wiping out the navy yard. (Back then, it actually would have been quite easy; I chose the yard, complete with Boomer, because it was a MUCH easier target than any nuclear power plant)
Result--serious possibility in an many minds that the British would bring company along.

 

[Ramontxo]

Argentina invaded South Thule in 1976, the British sent Operation Journeyman south almost a year later in response but this went home without confronting the invaders let alone evicting them, and this was when Britain had the Ark Royal in service.

Anaya told the CNO to plan to take but not hold the Falklands, which I find strange, almost like they expected the British would fight back and win.

One common theory is that they planned, if the British did indeed come, to negotiate an settlement. But in the heat of popular enthusiasm they got carried away. The performance of the Flomar( high seas fleet) after the sinking of the Belgrano cruiser, hiding in port, while the army fight in the islands and the Air Force (and so also the COAN) (Argentinian Fleet Super Etendards and A-4s) tried to do anything they could to strike back at the RN is disputed to this day.

 

[Xenophonte]

But in the heat of popular enthusiasm they got carried away.

It, IMO, is another of the Regime excuses that was uncritically most of the times, incorporated into the discussion... I think that it was probably a post fact 'excuse', cause, aside that the Argentine Junta cared little to nothing about any kind of popular reaction the regime were in total control of the Argentine Mass Media.
So,given that they were in control of the information to which the Argentines had access so as well they controlled what news were informed an how they were informed through the media outlets and, also, is worth to be noted/remembered that they had, too, with the willing collaboration of some Media Owners and News directors...
Given the above, I think that is clear why I tend to think that even if, at these times, the Junta as a whole wouldn't have been willing to disclose the ongoing military operations, for it would be known, then, at least some member of the Junta, should have had decided to allow that it would be disclosed to the public...

 

[Basils]

Good question.

My guess is it tries to bully Chile over their territorial disputes. It does need something to distract the growing opposition.

It’s so sad that Argentina with all its potential never progressed anywhere economically. Too bad they never looked at sensible economic reform. I know that would be ash for basically any govt of Argentina to have thought about

 

[Riain]

One common theory is that they planned, if the British did indeed come, to negotiate an settlement.

Yes I agree. The idea was that the UN would impose a settlement in the period between the invasion and counter offensive. Even IOTL the 'Springtrain' ships steamed ahead of the rest of the Task Force in case the UN imposed a halt of movement, that way the British would be a long way south. By the same token the British didn't care what the UN said about South Georgia because Argentina no no semblance of a claim there, nothing they could hang a cloak of legitimacy on.