Even though both Portugal and Spain were well aware that the earth was round when they the Treaty of Tordesillas, they somehow forgot to mention it, and that resulted in some... curious occurrences a few years down the line.
In the 1520s, the so called "Moluccas issue" emerge when Spain claimed what are now the Maluku Islands of Indonesia after reaching them by sailing west from new Spain. At the same time, the Portuguese were also exploring the region by sailing east, from Goa and Malacca. Thus, both sides could claim that they were sailing their side of line.
After a period of difficult negotiations, the Treaty of Zaragoza of 1529 resolved the issue by establishing an antimeridian to the Tordesillas meridian. But what if these talks had come to a halt?
The boring answer is that most likely it wouldn't have done much. Spain colonized the Philippines anyway and overall both countries cared less and less about Tordesillas as the time went by. They both also beginning to stretch themselves a little thin by this point, so there was a limit to how much they could venture beyond their OTL spheres of influence without major divergences. But I think we can still posit a few additional ventures that would not be totally implausible.
Let's say that without Zaragoza Spain uses the Tordesillas loophole to push further west into the Indonesian archipelago, and in retaliation Portugal sends expeditions to the Americas from their Asian holdings. Eventually, the Iberian union comes along and both sides kind of chill and allow the other to retain and keep growing the "illegal" settlements that already have.
I don't think it would be too difficult for Spain to grab a few more south east asian islands. On the Portuguese side, they probably have their hands tied on South and Central America (unless I'm missing something), but Spanish presence in the north is extremely thin. If a Portuguese expedition to, say, California or the Pacific Northwest returns with some resource that they can sell to the Chinese in Macau (I've always wondered about furs, which the British surely made some money selling in Guangdong in the 19th century...) that could lead to a sustainable colony.
This thread is more to brainstorm ideas without completely letting go off plausibility and less about figuring out the absolute most likely result of there being no treaty.
So, any ideas?
In the 1520s, the so called "Moluccas issue" emerge when Spain claimed what are now the Maluku Islands of Indonesia after reaching them by sailing west from new Spain. At the same time, the Portuguese were also exploring the region by sailing east, from Goa and Malacca. Thus, both sides could claim that they were sailing their side of line.
After a period of difficult negotiations, the Treaty of Zaragoza of 1529 resolved the issue by establishing an antimeridian to the Tordesillas meridian. But what if these talks had come to a halt?
The boring answer is that most likely it wouldn't have done much. Spain colonized the Philippines anyway and overall both countries cared less and less about Tordesillas as the time went by. They both also beginning to stretch themselves a little thin by this point, so there was a limit to how much they could venture beyond their OTL spheres of influence without major divergences. But I think we can still posit a few additional ventures that would not be totally implausible.
Let's say that without Zaragoza Spain uses the Tordesillas loophole to push further west into the Indonesian archipelago, and in retaliation Portugal sends expeditions to the Americas from their Asian holdings. Eventually, the Iberian union comes along and both sides kind of chill and allow the other to retain and keep growing the "illegal" settlements that already have.
I don't think it would be too difficult for Spain to grab a few more south east asian islands. On the Portuguese side, they probably have their hands tied on South and Central America (unless I'm missing something), but Spanish presence in the north is extremely thin. If a Portuguese expedition to, say, California or the Pacific Northwest returns with some resource that they can sell to the Chinese in Macau (I've always wondered about furs, which the British surely made some money selling in Guangdong in the 19th century...) that could lead to a sustainable colony.
This thread is more to brainstorm ideas without completely letting go off plausibility and less about figuring out the absolute most likely result of there being no treaty.
So, any ideas?
