Bush vs. The Axis of Evil - TL

[Mitridates the Great]

You would think so but with the Germans hungry for Russian natural gas, Russia being "invited" by the collaborators in the Ukrainian government, and with the US taking a backseat in international events, you could have the EU make a couple of condemnations while still chosing to increase economic ties with Russia.

I could see there being a growing divide within the EU between countries like Germany that stand to benefit from ties with Russia and those like Poland who see Russia has an existential threat.

Well, considering that as that chapter is written the implication is that German "collaboration" with Russia is described almost explicitly as utter stupidity perpetrated by a suicidal fool who couldn't be more wrong...

...I think the implication is that will come to power very soon a new Bundesprasident/Bundeskanzler, who will give a turn the helm and realign Germany with Eastern Europe and in confrontation with Russia, to hell with "economic logic" when the survival of the EU is in danger.

 

[Icedaemon]

It seems that this timeline is actually ending on a darker note than 'Death of russia' or 'Footprint of Mussolini'. With the US swinging wildly from ultra-interventionist to borderline isolationist, the totalitarian powers previously held in check by waryness of NATO feel they have a free hand. Germany's blind reliance on natural gas from putin has, even moreso than OTL, shown them to be more of a burden for the EU than a boon in terms of security. As the timeline goes from the turn of the millenium to the first quarter of the 21st century, a new cold war begins, with nations which previously relied on NATO's promises instead seeking to become nuclear powers themselves.

One wonders if Finland or Sweden is also quietly working on a nuclear program to enforce their neutrality, with NATO showing itself as a divided alliance ITTL. Both have the technology base to do it, though Sweden is rather pacifist and Finland has a rather low population by nuclear power standards.

 

[Mitridates the Great]

I think that would only make sense if the description of the chapter implied that NATO would end up dissolving, or that the EU would break up because the Eastern countries began to leave in rejection of Germany's "pro-Russian stance."

Neither of the two things has happened. Actually what seems to emerge from the chapter is that

1) Given Schrodinger's assessment of the move as utter unnuanced stupidity (rather than attempts to justify it as a necessary sacrifice in the name of the stability of the economy), the implication is that very soon there will be a turn of the helm that will undo that change, presumably in the form of a right-wing German government in reaction to "we must sacrifice our independence and security in the name of blind belief in American braying about how we should intertwine our economy with that of the our sworn enemies."

2) Since neither in this very tense situation is there any suggestion that a Visegrad Group has been created, nor that Poland and the Baltic States are changing to a pro-Russian stance (or that the EU is trying to expel Poland for developing nuclear weapons), the implication is that relations are arranged so that it is the EU that aligns with Poland and not the other way around.

Not to forget the fact that this nonsense that "the dictatorships that were 'kept in check' by the United States smell blood in the water" is just a concept that the American extreme right loves to jerk off to, but which does not It has no OTL or TTL basis. Among other things, because the United States has neither begun to withdraw its troops from Europe nor to start braying that "pay for your own defense, you m*ron."

 

[athgtq16129]

AFAIK has been used by nationalists as an anti-American rallying point.

Japanese Nationalists are split between pro-American and anti-American factions

 

[Mitridates the Great]

Japanese Nationalists are split between pro-American and anti-American factions

In fact the pro-American are the majority group

 

[athgtq16129]

Minor corrections:

the People’s Democratic Republic of Korea

The official name of the country is (ITTL was) the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (조선민주주의인민공화국) A.K.A. the DPRK, not the "People's Democratic Republic of Korea".

for a night or even week the worst sins short of death

You mean "for a night or even week of the worst sins short of death"?

 

[Judge Dredd34]

It seems that this timeline is actually ending on a darker note than 'Death of russia' or 'Footprint of Mussolini'. With the US swinging wildly from ultra-interventionist to borderline isolationist, the totalitarian powers previously held in check by waryness of NATO feel they have a free hand. Germany's blind reliance on natural gas from putin has, even moreso than OTL, shown them to be more of a burden for the EU than a boon in terms of security. As the timeline goes from the turn of the millenium to the first quarter of the 21st century, a new cold war begins, with nations which previously relied on NATO's promises instead seeking to become nuclear powers themselves.

One wonders if Finland or Sweden is also quietly working on a nuclear program to enforce their neutrality, with NATO showing itself as a divided alliance ITTL. Both have the technology base to do it, though Sweden is rather pacifist and Finland has a rather low population by nuclear power standards.

I wouldn’t say it’s worse than the two previous timelines. Death of Russia killed millions in a country of over 120,000,000, destroyed countless precious artifacts, and split the country into three. On top of that: several nuclear blasts smashed neutral countries, and Fascists almost started a global nuclear holocaust. Footprint of Mussolini had fascism last longer, normalised nuking resistant countries, and kept European colonialism to present day. The Fascists in particular got a slap on the wrist for their crimes especially when they got away with destroying the Middle East (even the USA got punished by having to go through their own version of The Troubles). Bush vs Axis of Evil destroyed three countries, but fascism, colonialism, and ultra-interventionism has been discredited. The developing countries of the world are mostly left alone, the smashed countries are being rebuilt, and the US interventionism blew up in the governments face. If you go by the lower body count, justice, and positive results for the world: Bush vs Axis of Evil still comes off as the best of the three.

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

I wouldn’t say it’s worse than the two previous timelines. Death of Russia killed millions in a country of over 120,000,000, destroyed countless precious artifacts, and split the country into three. On top of that: several nuclear blasts smashed neutral countries, and Fascists almost started a global nuclear holocaust. Footprint of Mussolini had fascism last longer, normalised nuking resistant countries, and kept European colonialism to present day. The Fascists in particular got a slap on the wrist for their crimes especially when they got away with destroying the Middle East (even the USA got punished by having to go through their own version of The Troubles). Bush vs Axis of Evil destroyed three countries, but fascism, colonialism, and ultra-interventionism has been discredited. The less devolved parts of the world are mostly left alone, said smashed countries are being rebuilt, and the US interventionism blew up in the governments face. If you go by the lower body count, justice, and positive results for the world: Bush vs Axis of Evil still comes as the best of the three.

Especially when you consider that at least one of the countries destroyed ITTL has managed a comeback. Iran went from smashed in a war to resurgent under actual democracy.

 

[Aluma]

I think Mitridates is talking about the post war order, not the *during* the TLs events or else yeah DOR beats FOM and this by a long shoot with its russian uber holocaust

 

[dorkasky]

Japan, Korea, and Taiwan can try applying for the 2022 World Cup hosting rights again, beating Qatar.

 

[Mitridates the Great]

I think Mitridates is talking about the post war order, not the *during* the TLs events or else yeah DOR beats FOM and this by a long shoot with its russian uber holocaust

I personally don't understand how I ended up involved in the discussion about "which of Sorairo's timelines is worse in terms of death and destruction." My last comment was in relation to the fact that I consider that the reading made by someone above that this world is going to end up being a disaster is based on assuming as true and maintaining assumptions that I consider, at best, unfounded, and at worst, being real only in the minds of a small minority of VERY extreme right-wing ultra-nationalist Americans, also known as "the authors of American 'patriotic fiction'." I don't remember mentioning DOR or FOM in my comment.

 

[Whiteshore]

I wouldn’t say it’s worse than the two previous timelines. Death of Russia killed millions in a country of over 120,000,000, destroyed countless precious artifacts, and split the country into three. On top of that: several nuclear blasts smashed neutral countries, and Fascists almost started a global nuclear holocaust. Footprint of Mussolini had fascism last longer, normalised nuking resistant countries, and kept European colonialism to present day. The Fascists in particular got a slap on the wrist for their crimes especially when they got away with destroying the Middle East (even the USA got punished by having to go through their own version of The Troubles). Bush vs Axis of Evil destroyed three countries, but fascism, colonialism, and ultra-interventionism has been discredited. The less devolved parts of the world are mostly left alone, the smashed countries are being rebuilt, and the US interventionism blew up in the governments face. If you go by the lower body count, justice, and positive results for the world: Bush vs Axis of Evil still comes off as the best of the three.

Especially when you consider that at least one of the countries destroyed ITTL has managed a comeback. Iran went from smashed in a war to resurgent under actual democracy.

And for all we know, the Arab Spring could be more successful than it was IOTL, especially as the last update is about the period it occurred in IOTL.

 

[Mitridates the Great]

Let us also not forget that the most pernicious effects of the association with China will be avoided or minimized, because now ITTL has gone from being "that country with which we must intertwine our economy at any price" to being "North Korea but bigger."

And by the same token, the "strongness against China" stance will now be a bipartisan consensus rather than something dependent on partisan alignment.

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

Let us also not forget that the most pernicious effects of the association with China will be avoided or minimized, because now ITTL has gone from being "that country with which we must intertwine our economy at any price" to being "North Korea but bigger."

And by the same token, the "strongness against China" stance will now be a bipartisan consensus rather than something dependent on partisan alignment.

Now that Russia has Ukraine under it's control and an earlier rise of Xi Jinping, BRICS will become an even bigger player in third world countries.
To explain, Russia and China can form a two pronged strategy in swinging African nations to their sphere over the West. Namely China supplies the infrastructure while Russia supplies Ukrainian foodstuffs. How plausible is this strategy?

 

[athgtq16129]

Let us also not forget that the most pernicious effects of the association with China will be avoided or minimized, because now ITTL has gone from being "that country with which we must intertwine our economy at any price" to being "North Korea but bigger."

And by the same token, the "strongness against China" stance will now be a bipartisan consensus rather than something dependent on partisan alignment.

So ITTL Western gaming and film companies will be less scared to portray China as a villain and replace them with the now-inexistent North Korea instead (i.e. Homefront, Red Dawn remake), also wonder if a Sino-Russian alliance will keep on being the villain that will get milked by military shooters like COD for years.

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

So ITTL Western gaming and film companies will be less scared to portray China as a villain and replace them with the now-inexistent North Korea instead (i.e. Homefront, Red Dawn remake), also wonder if a Sino-Russian alliance will keep on being the villain that will get milked by military shooters like COD for years.

How about collaboration between Russian and Chinese video game studios?

Actually are there any Russian video game developers of note?

 

[Karl the Writer]

And by the same token, the "strongness against China" stance will now be a bipartisan consensus rather than something dependent on partisan alignment.

It is a bipartisan agreement. The Democrats are just less bellicose about it than the Republicans are. The difference is that it happens earlier and the US has a head start decoupling itself from the Chinese economy.

I think that would only make sense if the description of the chapter implied that NATO would end up dissolving, or that the EU would break up because the Eastern countries began to leave in rejection of Germany's "pro-Russian stance."

Neither of the two things has happened. Actually what seems to emerge from the chapter is that

1) Given Schrodinger's assessment of the move as utter unnuanced stupidity (rather than attempts to justify it as a necessary sacrifice in the name of the stability of the economy), the implication is that very soon there will be a turn of the helm that will undo that change, presumably in the form of a right-wing German government in reaction to "we must sacrifice our independence and security in the name of blind belief in American braying about how we should intertwine our economy with that of the our sworn enemies."

2) Since neither in this very tense situation is there any suggestion that a Visegrad Group has been created, nor that Poland and the Baltic States are changing to a pro-Russian stance (or that the EU is trying to expel Poland for developing nuclear weapons), the implication is that relations are arranged so that it is the EU that aligns with Poland and not the other way around.

Not to forget the fact that this nonsense that "the dictatorships that were 'kept in check' by the United States smell blood in the water" is just a concept that the American extreme right loves to jerk off to, but which does not It has no OTL or TTL basis. Among other things, because the United States has neither begun to withdraw its troops from Europe nor to start braying that "pay for your own defense, you m*ron."

1.) So, the problem historians have with Schoeder is that he is intertwining the German economy with states hostile to the geopolitical order that Germany benefits from. So a right-wing government which itself heavily plays on neoliberal ideals of market integration will come to power and will integrate the German economy with states hostile to the geopolitical order Germany?

2.) Yeah you're probably right there

3.) It does have an OTL and ITTL basis. ITTL, it is implied that the Wellstone administration is viewed as weak on foreign policy and that the US is largely ignored in its role in international relations following 2004. Evidence includes how it is mentioned that the US airstrikes in Iraq and Syria post-WoT are widely ignored. Meanwhile, Putin's Russia, believing that the US is fundamentally interventionist and will never make peace with non-Western nations but also momentarily weak, takes the opportunity to invade Ukraine and install Yanukovich as its dictator. The underlying theme is that while the foundation of the American security order is still there, confidence in its ability to fulfill its obligations is waning and so countries opposed to the current security order are taking advantage.

In an OTL context, the Third Chinese Straits Crisis ended in a Taiwanese victory and delayed the PRC from openly courting an invasion of Taiwan for 2 decades.

 

[Judge Dredd34]

It is a bipartisan agreement. The Democrats are just less bellicose about it than the Republicans are. The difference is that it happens earlier and the US has a head start decoupling itself from the Chinese economy.

1.) So, the problem historians have with Schoeder is that he is intertwining the German economy with states hostile to the geopolitical order that Germany benefits from. So a right-wing government which itself heavily plays on neoliberal ideals of market integration will come to power and will integrate the German economy with states hostile to the geopolitical order Germany?

2.) Yeah you're probably right there

3.) It does have an OTL and ITTL basis. ITTL, it is implied that the Wellstone administration is viewed as weak on foreign policy and that the US is largely ignored in its role in international relations following 2004. Evidence includes how it is mentioned that the US airstrikes in Iraq and Syria post-WoT are widely ignored. Meanwhile, Putin's Russia, believing that the US is fundamentally interventionist and will never make peace with non-Western nations but also momentarily weak, takes the opportunity to invade Ukraine and install Yanukovich as its dictator. The underlying theme is that while the foundation of the American security order is still there, confidence in its ability to fulfill its obligations is waning and so countries opposed to the current security order are taking advantage.

In an OTL context, the Third Chinese Straits Crisis ended in a Taiwanese victory and delayed the PRC from openly courting an invasion of Taiwan for 2 decades.

I don’t think there’s any part in the story where it says that Putin believes the USA won’t make peace with non-NATO nations, but he does believe the USA won’t intervene at the moment.

 

[Aluma]

So a right-wing government which itself heavily plays on neoliberal ideals of market integration will come to power and will integrate the German economy with states hostile to the geopolitical order Germany?

I think you're confusing pro market liberal right with the "I totally dont wear a swastika in my underpants" german far right that he refered to which couldnt care less about economy and think Russia should be destroyed

 

[Karl the Writer]

I don’t think there’s any part in the story where it says that Putin believes the USA won’t make peace with non-NATO nations, but he does believe the USA won’t intervene at the moment.

I might have spoken in hyperbole there, but he does believe that the US won't make peace with Russia, to quote,

"Putin had grown deeply suspicious of the West as a result of the War on Terror, and worried that the West was planning to disintegrate the Russian Federation like the Soviet Union had before."

I think you're confusing pro market liberal right with the "I totally dont wear a swastika in my underpants" german far right that he refered to which couldnt care less about economy and think Russia should be destroyed

I was referring to the latter, who as I understand it are Eurosceptics, anti-American, and anti-market integration. Hence why I was kind of confused about the statement about how they would integrate the Germany economy to hostile countries due to American pressure and how that (the integration part) would be a break from the Schroeder administration.