No Iberian Union; Effects on Spanish and Portuguese Empires?

[Taunay]

Just look at the Iberian fleet that recaptured Bahia from the Dutch in 1625 for example, Spanish ships and men made up roughly two-thirds of that force.

Fair, but the reconquest of Pernambuco was made by the Luso-Brazilians in the region, for example, so the idea that Portugal will always get stomped by the Dutch in the Americas and Asia is a bit falacious. Especially as I mentioned that without the Portuguese Restoration War, Spain would have more resources to focus on stomping the Low Countries, meaning that the Dutch would have to spend more resources in defense instead of attack.

Also in late 16th and early 17th c. the Portuguese empire was objectively better protected than it ever could have been if it was independent.

Call me skeptical, but I really doubt that.

 

[HunterX]

Even without a Habsburg king, Portugal will be under heavy Spanish influence and would not likely to be able to stay out of conflict with the Dutch.

 

[AsukaEMP]

Fair, but the reconquest of Pernambuco was made by the Luso-Brazilians in the region, for example

Notable for being the only major Portuguese success and also mostly made possible by the popular uprising of the large local population, a privilege the Portuguese didn't have in the East Indies.

so the idea that Portugal will always get stomped by the Dutch in the Americas and Asia is a bit falacious

Didn't say any such thing, I said that the Dutch would still show up and that even if they're not seeking a fight with the Portuguese they would still get one.

Especially as I mentioned that without the Portuguese Restoration War, Spain would have more resources to focus on stomping the Low Countries, meaning that the Dutch would have to spend more resources in defense instead of attack.

"Stomping the Low Countries"? In the 1640s the Army of Flanders counted over 60k men, dwarfing Philip IV's forces in Portugal (or anywhere for that matter) at that point in time. It was only after he concluded peace with the Dutch and crushed the Catalan Revolt that Philip redirected his resources towards the Portuguese border. Besides, by 1640 the Dutch had been on an almost completely uninterrupted southwards advance for 15 years already. A couple thousand extra troops wouldn't have saved Philip's war effort, especially not with the French getting involved. The only thing Philip could do at that point was defend and hope that the Dutch failed to capture any more major cities.

Call me skeptical, but I really doubt that.

I gave a direct example in the very next sentence after the one you quoted...

 

[RedAquilla]

I, like most who gave their contribution to the thread, believe that the Dutch and English would still go to Asia and contest the Portuguese but in a more subtle way. Meaning first they would create colonies in places where the Portuguese weren't or could contest them, second, they would start contesting ports which the Europeans were dependent on local countries (something like Dejima or Surat, the first be a concession by Japan and the latter a concession by the Mughals) and only when they feel strong enough would they try something like Malacca or Goa. The Anglo-Dutch Wars with Portugal partaking in them seem to me like the final result of this.

I honestly think both Portugal and Spain would be better off without the Union. Positively, Philip II did implement many reforms in Portugal's Government system, Spanish America benefitted a lot from Portuguese slave traders selling them slaves at cheaper prices and having Macau as a good port to send silver to China. Negatively I think Portugal got the worst end of the Union finding traditional allies and trade partners as enemies, which cost them much of their empire directly through wars or that awful dowry that Catarina de Bragança gave England. It also cost them much money in taxes that until then did not exist which led to the Restoration War. I don't think Spain profited from the Union either due to having to defend more land and having another Kingdom that contested the "Castilinization" and barely contributed to the war efforts.

 

[holycookie]

Notable for being the only major Portuguese success

Well this and the situation in africa, but the african situation is linked to the luso-brasilian expeling the dutch from brazil.

 

[holycookie]

As for the idea that the Netherlands would leave Portugal alone because it will identify it as a potential anti-Spanish ally

I tend to agree with what @RedAquilla said, but more than that portugal was powerful due to being the first real player in asia. In the short term, they are doing well. The biggest problem is whether they will be able to remain competitive with other European powers in the future or if they will lose their foothold in Asia (Africa or Brazil). And this depends on decisions made by the Portuguese court. If we take OTL as a parallel, I would say no. After all, the wealth of Brazil was squandered by Portugal in a clumsy manner. But the loss of Asia indeed castrated Portugal in a very peculiar way. More so than a loss of Brazil would. So, it depends on the Portuguese court (and of course, their adversaries in Europe).

 

[Viriato]

Spanish possessions were more solidly held. Portuguese control over Brazil must have seemed more tenuous (at first glance). Portuguese holdings in Asia at least, were pretty tenuous, and their lower population would have made them more vulnerable.
But I do get mistified as to why the Dutch didn't just go to Argentina instead. I hear from unreliable sources that the weather is more amenable.

Argentina, or rather what became Argentina was a very peripheral territory of seemingly little value. Northeastern Brazil, most notably Pernambuco and to a lesser extent Bahia were the world's leading sugar-producing regions and the Netherlands was Europe's primary sugar-refining and distribution hub. After the end of the 1609-1621 truce the Dutch were effectively embargoed from trading Portuguese sugar and in response Dutch investors established the West India Company in 1621. In 1624 they were even able to capture Salvador, the capital of the colony.

It was not without reason that the Dutch paid no attention to southern Brazil and the Rio de la Plata. Even as late as 1800, the captaincy of São Paulo accounted for less than 5% of all Brazilian trade with Europe and even Rio de Janeiro was a backwater until after 1700 when gold was discovered there. Southern Brazil and the Plata River basin provided little trade except in the export of hides and smuggling of silver from Upper Peru with some clandestine trade in slaves. However, this trade was very small when compared with the other colonial entrepots.

Wihout the Union, the Dutch are likely happy enough to trade with the Portuguese and vice versa. The beginning of the troubles between Portugal and the Netherlands only began in 1595, when Philip II had 400 Dutch ships seized in Iberian ports. This was followed by the closing of Portuguese ports to Dutch traders in 1596. Before 1580, Portuguese shipping was indadequate to handle the sugar cargo that English and Dutch ships were even allowed to sail to Brazil to buy sugar directly.

The Dutch stadtholder were forced by the embargo to send exploratory missions to what is today Suriname looking for salt as they traditionally bought Portuguese salt to preserve herring. This was followed by sending ships the East Indies, culminating in the creation of the VOC in 1602. In February 1603, the VOC seized a Portuguese carrack, once they sold its goods, the value of the company doubled. By 1604, the Dutch were able to launch their first attack on Portuguese Malacca (unsuccessful at that time). However, in 1605 they captured Amboyna in the Moluccas, this was followed by the Spanish fort at Ternate in 1610. Most importantly, they were able to establish Batavia as their base in 1619.

The Dutch were unlike the Portuguese exclusively concerned with profit and their colonial exploration only came out of necessity. It took a few decades for the VOC to become profitable, while the WIC was an unprofitable venture, with the company going bankrupt.

Without a state of war between the Portuguese and Dutch, they are likely content to use the Portuguese as middlemen, particularly as it was a more advantageous relationship to the Dutch. The Portuguese had the expense of sending men and armed ships to the East along with building and maintaining fortresses.

After the 1550s, the bulk of profits from the Eastern trade were going to the Dutch merchants, as their ships dominated trade with Portugal and few Portuguese ships ventured north of Spain. Dutch merchants bought spices, textiles and other Eastern goods along with sugar from the Portuguese and redistributed these goods throughout Germany, the Baltic and the rest of northern Europe. At the same time, they sold northern European manufactured goods to the Portuguese. Portuguese traders were largely limited to trading with Spain, France and the Mediterranean, and this was eclipsed by the trade with Antwerp and later Amsterdam.

From its founding until the 1609 truce, the VOC was largely an instrument of war, rather than of commerce and "the subsidies it received from the federal government of the Netherlands were not nearly enough to cover its military expenses and, after the first twenty years of operation, the debt accumulated by the VOC nearly equalled the capital outlay of the company" (Emmer, First Global War). Around one-half of the company's profits between 1602 and 1609 came from piracy (1 million guilders per year).

 

[Diego]

Furthermore, Portugal is unlikely to travel down the path of absolutism, as IOTL this happened under the Braganzas in 1698. The Cortes and nobles will likely retain more of a check on the King's authority ITTL.

The Dinasty of Avis was much more powerful than the Braganzas, mostly because their legitimacy was not in question meanwhile the Braganzas needed support from every Portuguese class until at least the death of Philip IV, though Spain would not completely drop their claim to Portugal until the death of Charles II. In my opinion the Braganza Dinasty were able to catch up to the levels of power of Sebastian only around the time of Pombal.

 

[Viriato]

The Dinasty of Avis was much more powerful than the Braganzas, mostly because their legitimacy was not in question meanwhile the Braganzas needed support from every Portuguese class until at least the death of Philip IV, though Spain would not completely drop their claim to Portugal until the death of Charles II. In my opinion the Braganza Dinasty were able to catch up to the levels of power of Sebastian only around the time of Pombal.

Very much this as their support was not universal, and some of it waned as increased taxation to pay for the war against Spain and some grumbled with discontent as the war lasted nearly three decades. Though the gold from Brazil did provide a much needed windfall and the War of Spanish succession cemented the dynasty's position in Europe before Pombal.

 

[Analytical Engine]

• As the wedding of Catharine of Braganza with Charles II of England is butterflied, Portugal would also keep Tangier, on the North African coast, and Bombay.

IIRC, part of the reason Bombay was in her dowry was that Portugal was concerned that England were just going to take it anyway - at least this way it could be done peacefully

 

[kasumigenx]

The Dinasty of Avis was much more powerful than the Braganzas, mostly because their legitimacy was not in question meanwhile the Braganzas needed support from every Portuguese class until at least the death of Philip IV, though Spain would not completely drop their claim to Portugal until the death of Charles II. In my opinion the Braganza Dinasty were able to catch up to the levels of power of Sebastian only around the time of Pombal.

Another possible issue of the Braganzas OTL is that the Farnese claimant married into Spain.

 

[Fulano]

IIRC, part of the reason Bombay was in her dowry was that Portugal was concerned that England were just going to take it anyway - at least this way it could be done peacefully

But Charles II was not even the first option for Catherine's husband, that was Louis XIV. But I remember the main reason for why it didn't happen was the dowry the Cardinal Mazarin was asking to the Portuguese, which was way too much for them. Thing that should have been something really, really big considering that the dowry they gave to England was already way too much for for my tastes, imho.

In my opinion the Braganza Dinasty were able to catch up to the levels of power of Sebastian only around the time of Pombal.

And then they had to ruin it again when they fled to Brazil and lost all the prestige they had gained in Portugal.

 

[Oda]

Even without the Dutch, portugal malacca days are over.literally every single sultanate near the Portuguese outpost are United in their hatred for Portugal and honestly it’s a miracle the Portuguese last this long tbh.

 

[Taunay]

Argentina, or rather what became Argentina was a very peripheral territory of seemingly little value. Northeastern Brazil, most notably Pernambuco and to a lesser extent Bahia were the world's leading sugar-producing regions and the Netherlands was Europe's primary sugar-refining and distribution hub. After the end of the 1609-1621 truce the Dutch were effectively embargoed from trading Portuguese sugar and in response Dutch investors established the West India Company in 1621. In 1624 they were even able to capture Salvador, the capital of the colony.

It was not without reason that the Dutch paid no attention to southern Brazil and the Rio de la Plata. Even as late as 1800, the captaincy of São Paulo accounted for less than 5% of all Brazilian trade with Europe and even Rio de Janeiro was a backwater until after 1700 when gold was discovered there. Southern Brazil and the Plata River basin provided little trade except in the export of hides and smuggling of silver from Upper Peru with some clandestine trade in slaves. However, this trade was very small when compared with the other colonial entrepots.

Wihout the Union, the Dutch are likely happy enough to trade with the Portuguese and vice versa. The beginning of the troubles between Portugal and the Netherlands only began in 1595, when Philip II had 400 Dutch ships seized in Iberian ports. This was followed by the closing of Portuguese ports to Dutch traders in 1596. Before 1580, Portuguese shipping was indadequate to handle the sugar cargo that English and Dutch ships were even allowed to sail to Brazil to buy sugar directly.

The Dutch stadtholder were forced by the embargo to send exploratory missions to what is today Suriname looking for salt as they traditionally bought Portuguese salt to preserve herring. This was followed by sending ships the East Indies, culminating in the creation of the VOC in 1602. In February 1603, the VOC seized a Portuguese carrack, once they sold its goods, the value of the company doubled. By 1604, the Dutch were able to launch their first attack on Portuguese Malacca (unsuccessful at that time). However, in 1605 they captured Amboyna in the Moluccas, this was followed by the Spanish fort at Ternate in 1610. Most importantly, they were able to establish Batavia as their base in 1619.

The Dutch were unlike the Portuguese exclusively concerned with profit and their colonial exploration only came out of necessity. It took a few decades for the VOC to become profitable, while the WIC was an unprofitable venture, with the company going bankrupt.

Without a state of war between the Portuguese and Dutch, they are likely content to use the Portuguese as middlemen, particularly as it was a more advantageous relationship to the Dutch. The Portuguese had the expense of sending men and armed ships to the East along with building and maintaining fortresses.

After the 1550s, the bulk of profits from the Eastern trade were going to the Dutch merchants, as their ships dominated trade with Portugal and few Portuguese ships ventured north of Spain. Dutch merchants bought spices, textiles and other Eastern goods along with sugar from the Portuguese and redistributed these goods throughout Germany, the Baltic and the rest of northern Europe. At the same time, they sold northern European manufactured goods to the Portuguese. Portuguese traders were largely limited to trading with Spain, France and the Mediterranean, and this was eclipsed by the trade with Antwerp and later Amsterdam.

From its founding until the 1609 truce, the VOC was largely an instrument of war, rather than of commerce and "the subsidies it received from the federal government of the Netherlands were not nearly enough to cover its military expenses and, after the first twenty years of operation, the debt accumulated by the VOC nearly equalled the capital outlay of the company" (Emmer, First Global War). Around one-half of the company's profits between 1602 and 1609 came from piracy (1 million guilders per year).

Exactly, this whole idea that the Dutch are destined to steal Portuguese colonies is wrong and may come out of mismatched nationalism rather than actual facts.

 

[holycookie]

Even without the Dutch, portugal malacca days are over.literally every single sultanate near the Portuguese outpost are United in their hatred for Portugal and honestly it’s a miracle the Portuguese last this long tbh.

I strongly dissent from this notion; the disfavor of the Sultanates of the Malacca region towards the Kingdom of Portugal holds little significance. In truth, absent Dutch military intervention, the days of these Sultanates would be numbered. Initially, the region featured three major contenders (prior to Dutch involvement) vying for control of trade through the Strait of Malacca: the Johor Sultanate, the Portuguese Empire, and, notably, the Sultanate of Aceh. Though other powers like the Sultanate of Kedah existed, they were effectively subdued by the Portuguese, while the Sultanates of Brunei and Demak posed more annoyance than real threat. The Sultanate of Johor demonstrated flexibility in its alliances, shifting from Portugal to Aceh, and later adopting a neutral stance (albeit subject to change depending on prevailing circumstances). The remaining powers were either Muslim or pagan entities of marginal significance. The Portuguese Empire's dominion over Malacca endured for more than a century; sans the Dutch East India Company (VOC), their grip would have likely strengthened, irrespective of the discontent among the Sultanates. The animosity of Indian Ocean Muslims towards the Portuguese only served to weaken them further, as evidenced by their repeated defeats, with the Battle of Diu cementing Portuguese hegemony in the region.
P.S.: Interestingly, the Vijayanagara Empire aligned with Portugal and lent support against both Muslims and the Dutch. With Portugal's increased strength, this Indian empire could conceivably have endured for a longer period.

Exactly, this whole idea that the Dutch are destined to steal Portuguese colonies is wrong and may come out of mismatched nationalism rather than actual facts.

Yes, I agree. Firstly, it was a series of conflicts spanning over 70 years, affording ample time for shifts in the situation and direction of this war. Let's begin by delineating the campaigns into three regions: the Americas, Africa, and Asia. In the Americas, the Dutch invasion of Brazil persisted for a significant duration, with initial incursions dating back to 1624. However, their establishment in the region only materialized by 1630, yet they faced constant resistance and ultimately succumbed, being expelled from the area in 1654. This was exacerbated by the bankruptcy of the Dutch West India Company. Notably, the rule of Nassau managed to stabilize the colony for a time; without him, I would say that the Dutch colony would have been ousted sooner. In Africa, we witnessed a repetition of the events in Brazil, with Portugal maintaining control over the region. Now, in Asia, the situation was more complex, with Portugal suffering setbacks in significant battles such as the Battle of Cape Rachado (1606), Siege of Malacca (1640-1641), and Siege of Hormuz (1622). The loss of Malacca and Hormuz was particularly detrimental due to their critical importance as Portuguese strongholds.

However, we must acknowledge that these Dutch achievements coincided with a dire period for Portugal. Initially, the union with Spain led to a loss of independence, as the Portuguese crown and nobility were eclipsed by Spanish authorities. Heavy taxes and levies were imposed on Portuguese commerce, leading to economic exploitation. With the Spanish crown marginalized Portuguese merchants and restricted their commercial activities.

Furthermore, in the midst of the Dutch-Portuguese war, Portugal declared independence. Now fighting the Netherlands and Spain at the same time ( for more than 20 years I must say). Not to mention French and English corsairs further weakening the Portuguese empire. So while the idea of an invincible Portuguese empire is completely ridiculous, the idea that the Netherlands is predestined to win over Portugal is equally ridiculous. The most likely thing in this case with Portugal being independent is a failure of the Dutch onslaught. Which does not mean the eternal solidification of Portuguese control in Asia.

 

[Vitruvius]

"Stomping the Low Countries"? In the 1640s the Army of Flanders counted over 60k men, dwarfing Philip IV's forces in Portugal (or anywhere for that matter) at that point in time. It was only after he concluded peace with the Dutch and crushed the Catalan Revolt that Philip redirected his resources towards the Portuguese border. Besides, by 1640 the Dutch had been on an almost completely uninterrupted southwards advance for 15 years already. A couple thousand extra troops wouldn't have saved Philip's war effort, especially not with the French getting involved. The only thing Philip could do at that point was defend and hope that the Dutch failed to capture any more major cities.

I generally agree with this and I would add one additional wrinkle. From the 1620s on and especially in the 1630s as Spain's military expenses increased with the onset of War with France Olivares and the Castilian government relied heavily upon Portuguese converso bankers for funding after having largely exhausted the credit available to them from their traditional bankers in Genoa.

So yes, there is no military expense required to fight the Braganzas but at the same time Spain is potentially cut off from Portuguese credit at a time when it desperately needed it. Unless whoever is King of Portugal decides to closely align with Spain. And I don't see why an independent Portugal would want to throw in its lot with a flailing Spanish empire.

 

[kasumigenx]

No Iberian Union and Catherine of Austria heading the regency means that Portugal would colonize Luzon and Mindanao.

 

[kasumigenx]

No Iberian Union and Catherine of Austria heading the regency means that Portugal would colonize Luzon and Mindanao.

I think the main mistake of the Portuguese and the reason why they did not pursue Luzon and Mindanao is that they want to have Visayas as well as it is part of the Treaty of Tordesillas and Zaragosa as part of their territory and can't concede with getting Luzon and Mindanao only which can change if the regent is not Catherine of Austria but I think if Philip II respected the inheritance of Don Carlos, he would not conquer the Philippines but it is Don Carlos men who would do it but Spain will be in union with Portugal in this scenario as I don't think Sebastian will live to adulthood in this scenario.