The British have managed to significantly reenforce their air component in Singapore, which along with the soon to be introduced Tomahawks, will make any Japanese air attack on Singapore very costly. While the front line troops can expect to receive better air cover in the coming days, which will improve their morale tremendously. And once the devisions that have up until now been taking the strain of defending Malaya, are withdrawn from combat, and placed in reserve and reconstruction. Their replacement with fresh experienced battle hardened units, who have had time to acclimatise and train in local conditions, should effectively end the Japanese advance. Once the Japanese find themselves unable to continue their advance down the Malayan Peninsula, given their shaky logistics system, they will slowly be forced to retire. As the British, who will increasingly dominate the rear areas of the Japanese, and are able to make a number of small landings behind the Japanese front line, themselves go on the offensive. The major problem that the British had IOTL was logistics, having been thrown out of Malaya and Burma, with most of the DEI, and additionally having major commitments in the Mediterranean. It was forced to campaign through an area that had virtually no infrastructure, the India Burma border. And didn’t have the logistics and equipment to spare, to do an end run around the Japanese, and effect landings at Rangoon and Singapore. This time, without the need to retake Burma, or Singapore, and the reduced demands of the Mediterranean region, things are going to be much easier in the coming years.
The British have a much stronger Navel presence in the Far East ITTL than they did IOTL, and haven’t suffered the devastating loss of two capital ships, which helped to collapse morale. And are now in the strongest position, vis are vis the Japanese navy, in the Far East. Along with being the strongest of the Allied navies, in the region, especially the American, which in addition to having suffered significant losses in the Pacific, had only a minor presence in the South China Sea and around the Philippines. First off we should consider what historically was the principal aim of the British in having a major navel force based in Singapore. This was to deter the Japanese from attacking British interests in the Far East, while keeping American financial and industrial interests out of the British colonies. As the navy has failed in the first, the Japanese forced by American sanctions, have launched their attempt to conquer the European colonies in the Far East, and gain the resources they desperately need. The big question is that is the role of the British/Commonwealth navies now, given the changed circumstances in the Far East. Should they head north and engage in a major campaign in the South China Sea against the Japanese Navy. Or should they head South and reenforce the remaining American navel forces, and Dutch Navy in the defence of the DEI. Which will have the additional advantage of re ensuring the Australians and New Zealanders of Britain’s commitment to their defence, which came to be very much questioned after the fall of Singapore.
Personally I think that to move South and support the Dutch in their defence of Sumatra and Java, plus interfering with the Japanese invasion of Borneo, is the best choice. Yes the British can and should take actions in the South China Sea, but the development of anything larger than a light cruiser in this area, at present is wasteful. It’s going to be some time before the Japanese can deploy major heavy units, such as heavy cruisers, battlecruisers, battleships, and carriers in theatre. And it’s far better to attack them, given the major restrictions on manoeuvre in the area, with submarines and aircraft. While the deployment of the major British ships to the South, has a number of advantages, starting with it puts them beyond the range of Japanese aircraft, given their failure to capture a functioning airfield to date. And with a highly experienced British admiral in command, and ships that are equipped with functional radar, and crews experienced in using it. One of the advantages that the Japanese had IOTL, will be very much negated, that of their extensive practice in night fighting. Not only were the British nearly as practised as the Japanese in night fighting, but radar gives them a serious advantage. The other major advantage that the Japanese had, their famous Long Lance torpedo, which was effectively unknown by the various Allies at this time. Would to an extent be nullified by the presence of British big ships, which with their radar directed gunnery, could day or night, hold the Japanese ships beyond effective torpedo range.
Such a move South of Singapore, will not require the extensive fleet train, that the Americans required to operate in the Central Pacific, as not only are the distances less, but there are also a number of significant ports and bases available for resupplying. It’s the Japanese who will be in the position of requiring an extensive fleet train, which they do not have, as it is they who are far from home. On to a number of technical and political points that have been razed by other posters. HMS Hermes, is not even after a refit suitable for action east of Singapore, she is however adequate to act as the, air defence, scouting, and anti submarine escort for the four old R class battleships, to be based out of Ceylon. Britain did eventually produce two of the finest piston engined, single seat navel fighters ever made, the Hawker Sea Fury, and the DeHavilland Sea Hornet. Unfortunately both were to enter service post war, so the FAA, had to rely on American navel fighters during the war. Had as happened in the Whale has Wings Time Line, the FAA, been given its independence from the RAF in 1936 or sooner, there is a very good chance that the British given the size of its pre war aircraft industry and an ability of the FAA to set its own requirements. And not play third fiddle to the needs of the RAF, have entered the war with an adequate single seat fighter and gone on to develop a fighter as good or better than the Americans produced mid war. In regards to the situation vis a vis, with the various independence movements in the French, British and Dutch Far East colonies. The French who to an extent totally lost face, having been successful invaded by the Germans, and forced to submit to the Japanese. Will be in the worst position of the Colonial Powers, however given what I presume will be a much shorter Japanese occupation. The Japanese tendency to totally piss of the native population, and an eventual liberation by an Anglo French force, more Anglo than French. The French administration supported by the British, will by the end of the war, have a handle on the situation. Though I personally expect that by the 1960’s, given the strains on the French, some form of independence will have been granted.
The Dutch, will have few problems unless everything goes pear shaped, and the Japanese are able to successfully invade both Sumatra and Java. While the Dutch were not the best regarded of the Colonial Powers, they had the advantage that in the DEI, they various internal disputes between locals and immigrants, particularly the Chinese, served them well, as some locals saw the Dutch as their best defence against being dominated by the stronger and more numerous others. Plus their were strong disagreements between the various islands, which are prevalent to this day. Without a successful Japanese invasion, the Colonial Power, will be able to retain in custody many of those who are the most vocal in the various independence movements. And without the dubious legitimacy that the Japanese gave them, and the ability to form their own private armies, which they did do under the Japanese occupation. And without these private armies, and the mass support they provided, the Dutch establishment should be able to control the level of insurrection, to a manageable level for a number of years. However the general change in world opinion towards colonialism, the rising cost of maintaining the colonies, along with demands in the homeland for increased spending domestically, will see the DEI given independence, of one sort or another, like FIC by the 1960’s. This does not mean that what we now call Indonesia will form, it could be that each island group will become an independent nation with its own government. Remember there is no love lost between the big four, Java, Sumatra, Borneo and Bali, each has its own culture and history.
In regards to the British, they will have the least problems, of all the Colonial Powers. Yes Hong Kong has fallen to the Japanese, but the British never thought that they could retain it, and that is one of the reasons that they made Singapore their principal Far East base. That and the fact that Sydney which would have been a far better choice, given it’s availability of skilled local workers, and access to resources, was to far away from the the principal possible area of conflict. It was the fall of Singapore the so Gibraltar of the east, that caused such a shock and loss of face for the British. If as looks likely Singapore and a significant portion of Malaya do not fall under Japanese control, and as a result the attempted invasion of Burma is a failure or called off. Then the British will benefit from this, not only will they be seen to have been the only major Colonial Power to have successfully resisted the Japanese. The knock on effects, such as no Bengal famine, retention of civilian control over internal policing, and the retention of knowledge of who is who within the various independence movements. Plus retaining to an extent the appearance of being much stronger than Britain is in reality, and a much lower financial cost, as the colonies especially Burma and Malaya, were some of the very few that made a profit. A profit that is only going to be greater, as the demands of the war for resources, especially rubber, by the Americans, can be used to offset some of the costs of fighting the war. While there is no question that India will receive its independence post war, it might given the stronger position Britain’s in and the reduced animosity towards the British, that no Bengal famine, and a much weaker Quite India movement. Be delayed long enough for there to be a better solution to the border question, between India and Pakistani. As no matter what, British India will be divided, when independence comes.
There is also the question of what happens with the other non European Colonial Power, though they do not like to be called a Colonial Power, America. Much as many Americans deny that they were a Colonial Power, from the end of the Spanish American war in 1898, up until the present day America has had colonies, not to the extent that Britain, France and Holland did, but they did have them. And the largest of their colonies was the Philippines, which they ruled up until WWII, and over which they extended significant amounts of control until recently. In the years leading up to WWII, America was working towards the independence of the Philippines, admittedly with some caveats, such as the retention of a number of military bases. The mostly successful surprise attack on Pearl Harbour, and the invasion of the Philippines, has caught the Americans with their pants down. The subsequent failure and multiple mistakes made in the defence of the Philippines, especially in comparison to the success of the British, in the defence of Malaya. Has not done American prestige any favours, and the fact that the strongest navel force in the area right now is the RN, and that the Americans will be begging the British to provide relief to the besieged forces in the Philippines. Is along with some other factors, not going to show the Americans in a good light, those British submarines providing relief, will not be evacuating Philippines, but mostly white Americans. Yes in the end America will liberate the Philippines, and show herself to be the dominant power in the Pacific. But odds are this will only happen long after the British have thrown the Japanese out of Malaya and are well on the way to doing the same in Thailand and FIC. The major advantage that the Americans have is that they when they liberate the Philippines, will do so as part of its independence. However the improvements to the British performance ITTL , will see American prestige slightly lower than it was IOTL.
RR.