Challenge: Colonial-esque International Borders in Siberia

[RMcD94]

With a POD after 1900 your challenge is to find a way for ugly straight line international borders as seen in Africa and in sparsely inhabited areas.

If you find this too difficult your secondary challenge is to have spheres of influence made in Siberia that follow similar principles.

Finally then if it's still too much of a challenge have these borders be temporary claims such as people allies in war or something and never reflect the actual situation.

Here is an example below.

Russian Civil War goes haywire and Turkestan seizes everything East of the Urals. Mongolia and recently independent Manchuria are allies with Turkestan against China(???) and so they quickly agree to borders so they focus their attention elsewhere. Japan grabs Kamchatka during the chaos as there are like 5 people there and no one contests it as well as Sakhalin.

 

[Help]

I think there is a large Russian population at that point, and the country would take the land back if they tried, no matter the regime.

 

[Cudymcar]

What's "Turkestan"? It's not a country or a nation, never was. It's like saying "Middle East seizes everything West of Bosporus".

 

[RMcD94]

I think there is a large Russian population at that point, and the country would take the land back if they tried, no matter the regime.

So how do you make it not possible for them to take it back? What kind of warlord period does Russia have to be in?

Here is a fantastic map in 1897:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2f/Subdivisions_of_the_Russian_Empire_by_largest_ethnolinguistic_group_%281897%29.svg

In 1897, the census showed that:
The Ural oblast had 150k Russians of 600k population.
Siberia had around 6 million people. No idea how many Russians.

There's also this:

Demoscope Weekly - Annex. Statistical indicators reference.

(BTW I would kill for something this easy to navigate for Imperial Germany's censuses or any other countries. You could even make a global one like this.)

You could add it up.

Far East

www.encyclopediaofukraine.com

.

Population. When Russia first annexed the Far East, it was very sparsely populated. After the first influx of Cossacks and European settlers the population, including the few indigenous peoples, was about 50,000. In 1880 it was about 100,000. As a result of immigration and natural growth the population increased as follows: 310,000 in 1897, 810,000 in 1911, 1,230,000 in 1926, about two million in 1939, and 3,200,000 in 1959. Growth was slower in time of the First World War, particularly in 1917–22.

So a lot of Russians.

Still, if Turks can live under Russian majority could Russians not live under someone else's majority as they do in Kazakhstan today?

What's "Turkestan"? It's not a country or a nation, never was. It's like saying "Middle East seizes everything West of Bosporus".

Just like Kurdistan refers to a hypothetical Kurdish nation Turkestan here refers to a hypothetical nation of Turkic peoples (obviously here it includes the Iranic Tajiki.) as you can see by the borders. Probably I should have added East Turkestan to it but I didn't put any extra thought into it since doing your own challenge seems kind of pointless. It's an example.

 

[Help]

Well, Japan taking the far East definitely seems plausible, but the Turkestan and Mongol encroachment seems unlikely, as they would focus on independence if anything. Also, they would be taking on far too many minorities.

 

[Northstar]

My wild and highly improbable idea is as follows:

1904: The Triple-Entente comes into being three years earlier.
1905: The Russo-Japanese War occurs. The British are allied to both parties. This emboldens both Russia and Japan to keep fighting, expecting support from their British allies. However, the British stay strictly neutral throughout the fighting part of the conflict.
1907: The extended conflict, which Russia appears to be losing, tips the country into civil war.
1908: A peace treaty is signed between Russia and Japan that recognises Manchuria as in the Japanese sphere of influence.
1910: As the Russian civil war drags on and revolution spreads, the White Russians appeal to their British allies for funds. Kamchatka is sold to the British by the White Russians.
1911: Japan moves to take the area directly north of Manchuria and west of British Kamchatka.
1912: Mongolia gains its independence and, seeing its northern neighbour in a state of disarray, lays claim to everything directly north of its borders.
1913: Finland declares independence from Russia.
1914: Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, etc, declare independence from the crumbling Russian Empire.
1915: WWI breaks out. Russia is in no state to honour its alliances.
1916: Russia's Central Asian territories declare independence. Kazakhstan claims everything north of its border.
1918: The Russian Civil War ends. Russia is in no state to contest its territorial losses.
1920: WWI ends.

Northstar

 

[RMcD94]

My wild and highly improbable idea is as follows:

1904: The Triple-Entente comes into being three years earlier.
1905: The Russo-Japanese War occurs. The British are allied to both parties. This emboldens both Russia and Japan to keep fighting, expecting support from their British allies. However, the British stay strictly neutral throughout the fighting part of the conflict.
1907: The extended conflict, which Russia appears to be losing, tips the country into civil war.
1908: A peace treaty is signed between Russia and Japan that recognises Manchuria as in the Japanese sphere of influence.
1910: As the Russian civil war drags on and revolution spreads, the White Russians appeal to their British allies for funds. Kamchatka is sold to the British by the White Russians.
1911: Japan moves to take the area directly north of Manchuria and west of British Kamchatka.
1912: Mongolia gains its independence and, seeing its northern neighbour in a state of disarray, lays claim to everything directly north of its borders.
1913: Finland declares independence from Russia.
1914: Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, etc, declare independence from the crumbling Russian Empire.
1915: WWI breaks out. Russia is in no state to honour its alliances.
1916: Russia's Central Asian territories declare independence. Kazakhstan claims everything north of its border.
1918: The Russian Civil War ends. Russia is in no state to contest its territorial losses.
1920: WWI ends.

Northstar

Pretty dope timeline. Would the Americans or Japanese be ok with Britain buying Kamchatka? Perhaps it's the USA who buy it instead in order to avoid having to deal with the OTL negotiations around the Seal Trade?

Is rump Russia united or balkanized into commie and white sides?

Every timeline is improbable so not to worry there and it wouldn't be much of a challenge if it was super plausible.

 

[Northstar]

Pretty dope timeline. Would the Americans or Japanese be ok with Britain buying Kamchatka? Perhaps it's the USA who buy it instead in order to avoid having to deal with the OTL negotiations around the Seal Trade?

Is rump Russia united or balkanized into commie and white sides?

Every timeline is improbable so not to worry there and it wouldn't be much of a challenge if it was super plausible.

I mean I guess that the USA could buy it, but I was thinking more the British buying it as they're allied to the Russians and the British monarch is the cousin to the Russian monarch, IIRC.

Japan would be "OK" with it as they're allied to the British and it gives them an excuse to move directly into the area north of Manchuria.

And I don't know about Communist/White Russian balkanisation.

Northstar

 

[Arkenfolm]

Plenty of African borders aren't lines on a map but instead follow rivers and mountains, which is an impressive feat considering how little explored interior Africa was by the Europeans who drew those borders. Contrast this to Siberia, which had been well-explored by the Russians since the 17th century and already had plenty of natural featues to draw borders around if you needed to carve it up. Mountain ranges and rivers need to be respected and logically would, since you don't want a chain of mountains or rivers cutting off large chunks of your land from easy exploitation.

 

[RMcD94]

Plenty of African borders aren't lines on a map but instead follow rivers and mountains, which is an impressive feat considering how little explored interior Africa was by the Europeans who drew those borders. Contrast this to Siberia, which had been well-explored by the Russians since the 17th century and already had plenty of natural featues to draw borders around if you needed to carve it up. Mountain ranges and rivers need to be respected and logically would, since you don't want a chain of mountains or rivers cutting off large chunks of your land from easy exploitation.

Well International borders that follow rivers mountains with no regard for local people would also be acceptable

At this point even multiple international borders full stop

 

[LuckyLuciano]

Plenty of African borders aren't lines on a map but instead follow rivers and mountains, which is an impressive feat considering how little explored interior Africa was by the Europeans who drew those borders. Contrast this to Siberia, which had been well-explored by the Russians since the 17th century and already had plenty of natural featues to draw borders around if you needed to carve it up. Mountain ranges and rivers need to be respected and logically would, since you don't want a chain of mountains or rivers cutting off large chunks of your land from easy exploitation.

I think op meant more in the vein of Sykes-Picot, straight lines on a map to designate spheres of influence type colonialism. Plus it's post 1900

 

[RMcD94]

I think op meant more in the vein of Sykes-Picot, straight lines on a map to designate spheres of influence type colonialism. Plus it's post 1900

Sykes, and the other partitions of turkey, were what I was thinking of when I made this. Might have been a better title to reference that

 

[Whiteshore]

What about a total Axis Victory where Germany and Japan partition the USSR? As implausible as it sounds, it is probably your best bet to get such absurd borders.

 

[RMcD94]

What about a total Axis Victory where Germany and Japan partition the USSR? As implausible as it sounds, it is probably your best bet to get such absurd borders.

That works but I wonder what the other nations involved would be. They never got close so they never made much of an effort with their borders. And it's only two nations which is a bit of a bummer.

On a side note look what I found, Turan, might end up being the name of the new Turkestan. Turan, Iran, Afghan. Seems like there's a root there:

 

[Aghasverov]

So how do you make it not possible for them to take it back? What kind of warlord period does Russia have to be in?

Here is a fantastic map in 1897:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2f/Subdivisions_of_the_Russian_Empire_by_largest_ethnolinguistic_group_%281897%29.svg

In 1897, the census showed that:
The Ural oblast had 150k Russians of 600k population.
Siberia had around 6 million people. No idea how many Russians.

There's also this:

Demoscope Weekly - Annex. Statistical indicators reference.

(BTW I would kill for something this easy to navigate for Imperial Germany's censuses or any other countries. You could even make a global one like this.)

You could add it up.

Far East

www.encyclopediaofukraine.com

.

Population. When Russia first annexed the Far East, it was very sparsely populated. After the first influx of Cossacks and European settlers the population, including the few indigenous peoples, was about 50,000. In 1880 it was about 100,000. As a result of immigration and natural growth the population increased as follows: 310,000 in 1897, 810,000 in 1911, 1,230,000 in 1926, about two million in 1939, and 3,200,000 in 1959. Growth was slower in time of the First World War, particularly in 1917–22.

View attachment 577233

So a lot of Russians.

Still, if Turks can live under Russian majority could Russians not live under someone else's majority as they do in Kazakhstan today?



Just like Kurdistan refers to a hypothetical Kurdish nation Turkestan here refers to a hypothetical nation of Turkic peoples (obviously here it includes the Iranic Tajiki.) as you can see by the borders. Probably I should have added East Turkestan to it but I didn't put any extra thought into it since doing your own challenge seems kind of pointless. It's an example.

Yes, the "Annex" of Demoscope Weekly is an AMAZING source for the Russian Census data from 1897 and for the subsequent Soviet Censuses...
The interwar Polish Census data is good too - it cross-references ethnic/"mother tongue" identification against religious identification too, so you can see how many Poles were not Catholics, Ruthenians were not Orthodox, etc etc... unfortunately the Polish Census data isn't as easy to track down as the Russian/Soviet census data...

 

[Aghasverov]

With a POD after 1900 your challenge is to find a way for ugly straight line international borders as seen in Africa and in sparsely inhabited areas.

If you find this too difficult your secondary challenge is to have spheres of influence made in Siberia that follow similar principles.

Finally then if it's still too much of a challenge have these borders be temporary claims such as people allies in war or something and never reflect the actual situation.

Here is an example below.

Russian Civil War goes haywire and Turkestan seizes everything East of the Urals. Mongolia and recently independent Manchuria are allies with Turkestan against China(???) and so they quickly agree to borders so they focus their attention elsewhere. Japan grabs Kamchatka during the chaos as there are like 5 people there and no one contests it as well as Sakhalin.

Ye Gods I haaaate geometric borders

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Ye Gods I haaaate geometric borders

You must loath North America and Australia then.

 

[Aghasverov]

You must loath North America and Australia then.

Not the continents themselves, just the borders

 

[Aghasverov]

Pretty dope timeline. Would the Americans or Japanese be ok with Britain buying Kamchatka? Perhaps it's the USA who buy it instead in order to avoid having to deal with the OTL negotiations around the Seal Trade?

Is rump Russia united or balkanized into commie and white sides?

Every timeline is improbable so not to worry there and it wouldn't be much of a challenge if it was super plausible.

Dammit, I wish I could remember the source for this but it was probably in some old history book that I was flipping through at the library back at my old University 20-some years ago (when I probably should've been focusing on my actual class work ) , but...
In the 1920's an American industrialist (one of the Vanderbilts maybe?) was negotiating with the Soviet government, forget if under Lenin or Stalin, for a large Siberian "concession" of sorts which would've included Kamchatka and a portion of Siberia demarcated by the next significant meridian to the west... no clue anymore what that's from, been simply filed away in the dustbin of history that is my brain

 

[Alamo]

Dammit, I wish I could remember the source for this but it was probably in some old history book that I was flipping through at the library back at my old University 20-some years ago (when I probably should've been focusing on my actual class work ) , but...
In the 1920's an American industrialist (one of the Vanderbilts maybe?) was negotiating with the Soviet government, forget if under Lenin or Stalin, for a large Siberian "concession" of sorts which would've included Kamchatka and a portion of Siberia demarcated by the next significant meridian to the west... no clue anymore what that's from, been simply filed away in the dustbin of history that is my brain

It was Washington Vanderlip (no relation to the banking magnate). He was negotiating with Lenin in the early 20s for the following concession, under a long term lease: